On a whim: Europe buys Russian gas before cutting off supplies
The Greek Prime Minister called for a ban on Russian natural gas supplies to the EU, including through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. In general, the countries of the union wanted to ban all forms and types of Russian gas supplies from January 1, 2028. Against the background of these reports, the volume of natural gas exports from Russia to European countries via the Turkish Stream pipeline rose to a record level in October. Experts are confident: Such a decision will primarily hurt the Europeans themselves. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Not through the back door.
The EU countries plan to ban all forms and types of Russian gas supplies from January 1, 2028. Against the background of these reports, the volume of natural gas exports from Russia to European countries via the Turkish Stream pipeline rose to a record level in October.
At the same time, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for a ban on Russian natural gas supplies, including through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, which he called the EU's back door. He suggested switching to a "Vertical Corridor" that would start in Greece and end in Ukraine. This is an alternative gas pipeline that Bulgaria announced in March 2025.
According to the politician, the United States considers Greece as a gateway to Europe's energy needs. The head of the Greek government also added that "Greece is becoming a receiving point for gas supplies that will replace Russian natural gas."
Natural gas enters the country from the Bulgarian gas system at the Sidirokastro point, which, in turn, receives it from the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. In addition, natural gas is supplied to Greece from Azerbaijan through the Southern Gas Corridor, and liquefied natural gas is also delivered by sea.
At the end of October, EU energy ministers approved the European Commission's proposal to ban all forms and types of Russian gas supplies from January 1, 2028. At the same time, starting from January 1, 2026, it is prohibited to conclude new short-term contracts, and the current ones must be completed by June 17 next year.
For this provision to enter into force, it must be approved by the European Parliament, which, in turn, insists on stopping Russian gas supplies to EU countries a year earlier — from January 1, 2027.
Buy to capacity
Against the background of this news, the total volume of Russian natural gas exports to European countries via the Turkish Stream pipeline in October rose to a record level in five years of operation.
According to the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG), a total of 1.68 billion cubic meters of Russian fuel entered the EU via this route, which is 9% more than last month. Since the beginning of the year, Russian gas exports to Europe have grown by 7.6%, reaching 14.7 billion cubic meters.
Such a sharp increase in supplies is due to the entry into force of the ban on the transit of Russian gas to the EU. At the same time, alternatives are being discussed. Finnish President Alexander Stubb relies on gas and oil from Kazakhstan, and it is also planned to supply energy resources from the United States, Norway, Azerbaijan, the Middle East and Central Asian countries.
According to Bloomberg, the European Union is entering the heating season prepared — there is enough gas in storage. However, according to the agency, a harsh winter may lead to a reduction in supplies, and new sanctions on Russian fuel may again cause volatility in gas prices.
The publication notes that in the coming months "a real test of Europe's energy sustainability will take place."
What do the experts think
Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the European Union's plan to completely abandon Russian LNG by 2028 would complicate life, first of all, for the Europeans themselves.
— Formally, the ban comes into force from January 2026, but there is a transition period — until mid-2026 for short—term contracts and until early 2028 for long-term contracts. What is important: the document contains a mechanism for temporarily suspending restrictions in case of "supply security problems," which indicates that Brussels understands the risks of its own decision, the expert believes.
According to the analyst, the feasibility of this plan raises serious doubts.
— In the first half of 2025, the EU imported €4.5 billion worth of Russian LNG, which is 29% more than a year earlier. Europe continues to actively buy our gas simply because it is more economically profitable than alternatives," the expert explained.
He added that the United States currently supplies 45% of LNG to Europe, but natural gas prices in the EU remain four to five times higher than American prices. Qatar, the second potential supplier, is primarily focused on the Asia-Pacific region, where the LNG market is three times larger than the European one.
— Norway can increase supplies only slightly, and the development of new deposits will require 10-15 billion euros and a temporary reserve of 5-15 years. According to former ECB President Mario Draghi, the European gas market is facing fundamental problems and a shortage of resources," the source said.
Rastorguev emphasized that Russia is consistently diversifying its sales markets. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline has reached its design capacity of 38 billion cubic meters ahead of schedule since December 2024. m per year. China has become the largest buyer of domestic pipeline gas, importing about 5 million tons of LNG in the first eight months of 2025.
— This is 16.6% less than last year, but overall trade is growing: the trade turnover between Russia and China reached a record $244.8 billion in 2024. Let's add India, Turkey, and the countries of Central Asia to this list — the demand for energy resources in these regions is growing, while Europe is reducing industrial production. According to Eurostat, in July 2025, the volume of industrial production in the eurozone was 1.2% lower than the average of 2021, the analyst said.
According to him, the mechanism for temporarily suspending the ban has already been included in the document. European industrialists are well aware that without affordable energy prices, their enterprises will lose out to American and Asian competitors, the expert believes.
— The EU chemical and metallurgical industries are already shifting production to regions with lower energy tariffs. The long-term perspective of the relationship does not depend on ideological declarations, but on economic reality. And the reality is that energy cooperation always returns to the issue of benefits for both sides," the expert concluded.
Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT), believes that the European Union's rejection of energy cooperation with Russia leads to the degradation of its industry and loss of competitiveness.
— At the same time, the situation is strengthening China: it is gaining wider access to Russian energy resources. Of course, we have lost the more premium European market. But at the same time, Russia pays a much lower price for Europe's shot in the foot," the political scientist emphasized.
According to the expert, such an irrepressible desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia is explained by the far-reaching interests of the EU.
— The refusal, at the behest of Washington, from normal economic cooperation with our country pushes the EU onto the military path of gaining access to Russia's natural resources. This is another confirmation that for the Russian Federation, the conflict on the southwestern borders is of an existential nature. But signs of such an "existence" can also be seen for Europe. Without access to Russian natural resources, it is doomed to the miserable fate of the world's periphery and the loss of its privileged position," the expert concluded.
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