Resource balance: the world will need another 300 million tons of LNG by 2050
By the middle of the century, global consumption of liquefied natural gas will increase by about 300 million tons, said Leonid Mikhelson, head of Novatek. Only the three largest players, Russia, the United States and Qatar, will be able to provide such additional volumes. Izvestia analyzed how geopolitical risks and sanctions restrictions may affect Russia's ability to implement its LNG projects by 2050, as well as how the projected growth fits into the context of global energy transition and decarbonization.
Changing consumption
Russia is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas: in 2024, exports amounted to about 34 million tons, which corresponds to about 8% of the global volume, the Ministry of Energy told Izvestia. The goal has now been set to produce 100 million tons by 2030 and increase its share in the global LNG market.
"Moreover, by the end of 2025, Russia will fully import 26 types of critical equipment for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. This will make it possible to implement large—scale gas liquefaction projects based on a fully domestic technological base," the ministry noted.
Testing of import-substituting equipment at a specialized LNG stand
For the global ESG agenda, it would be a success not to reduce the use of coal, but at least to slow down its increasing consumption in the energy sector, Philip Muradian, Senior Director for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA agency, told Izvestia. There is still no long—awaited moment when demand for coal will reach its maximum, at least in the coming years. The reason is simple: electricity production is not keeping pace with rapidly growing needs, largely due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies and the growth of digital infrastructure.
The reliability of energy systems has become a priority that increasingly outweighs carbon neutrality goals. Countries and companies are forced to find a balance between environmental obligations and energy security. As a result, coal, despite its reputation as a "dirty" resource, remains a sought-after element of global generation.
— Natural gas is the most important "transitional fuel" in the framework of the ESG agenda, and its share in the energy balance is likely to only grow, — he noted.
Fountain fittings at the Salmanovskoye (Utrennoye) oil and gas condensate field in the Tazovsky District of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug
It is difficult to object to the head of Novatek that the global demand for liquefied natural gas will continue to grow, Pavel Sevostyanov, current state Councilor of the Russian Federation, Candidate of Political Sciences, associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Izvestia. This process will inevitably lead to the need for significant expansion of infrastructure and increased export capacity in a number of countries. In fact, it will be impossible to meet the future needs of the global market without large-scale investments in new projects.
— IEA, industry reviews record a significant influx of new LNG projects in the coming decades and predict an increase in global LNG demand by the middle of the century. The final COP28 document defines that transition fuels, including natural gas, can play a role in energy transition provided emissions are reduced and energy security is ensured," he stressed.
A gas tanker at the berth of a liquefied natural gas production plant in the Prigorodnoye production complex on Sakhalin
Geopolitical challenges and sanctions pressure may slow down the implementation of Russian energy initiatives, but they cannot completely stop them, the expert believes. The country's LNG potential remains significant, and even in difficult conditions, projects continue to develop. The Russian industry is adapting, refocusing on internal resources, new logistics routes and alternative technologies.
According to him, the growth of low-carbon liquefied natural gas production can play a key role in phasing out coal and maintaining the stability of energy systems in the face of an increasing share of renewable sources. However, the main challenge remains minimizing methane leaks and simultaneously advancing technologies that reduce the carbon footprint. Without addressing these issues, the risk of not achieving the decarbonization goals remains serious.
The control room of the Vankor oil and gas field in the Krasnoyarsk Territory
In the future, global energy attention is likely to focus not only on capacity expansion, but also on improving the environmental efficiency of existing production processes. This is a chance for Russia to establish itself as a supplier of a new generation of "clean" LNG. Combining technological innovations with sustainable practices can be a factor that will ensure the long-term competitiveness of the domestic industry.
The future of the industry
According to the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2050, the country plans to increase LNG exports to 241-342 billion cubic meters (approximately 175-253 million tons), Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, told Izvestia.
"Even according to more conservative estimates by international agencies such as BP, which forecast Russian exports at 58 million tons by 2050, the increase compared to current figures is more than significant," he said.
Tanks for storage of liquefied natural gas on the territory of the Yamal LNG natural gas liquefaction plant in Sabetta village
Today, the transition from ambitious plans to real supplies, according to him, rests on strict geopolitical constraints. A striking example is the Arctic LNG-2 project. The main obstacle was the lack of an opportunity to use specialized gas carriers of the Arc7 ice class, Sergey Grishunin recalled.
This situation has exposed the vulnerability of the entire LNG supply logistics model. The shortage of ice vessels is turning into a systemic bottleneck, leading to direct losses, freezing investments and delaying the implementation of the following major initiatives — Murmansk LNG and Baltic LNG. Their future fate largely depends on the speed of import substitution of critical technologies and the industry's ability to attract the necessary financial resources in conditions of sanctions isolation.
Ecological transition
At first glance, the focus on gas export growth contradicts the logic of the energy transition, but this is precisely the paradox, Sergei Grishunin noted. Natural gas is considered as a "transitional" fuel capable of replacing coal and maintaining the stability of energy systems.
According to him, the main growth in demand in the coming decades is expected from developing Asian countries, primarily China and India, where growing industrialization requires more and more energy while striving to reduce emissions. The transportation industry also gives an additional boost to the demand for LNG: the International Maritime Organization promotes emission reduction, and LNG becomes the optimal fuel for the fleet, where electrification is impossible.
Loading of a gas tanker at the Ras Laffan Industrial Center terminal in Qatar
However, the accelerated introduction of renewable energy, hydrogen solutions, and carbon capture technologies can dramatically narrow the time window of opportunity, Sergey Grishunin emphasized. For Russia, this means the need to be proactive: at the same time, solve import substitution problems, develop infrastructure, and monetize its resources as quickly as possible while gas remains in demand. The outcome of this strategic game will depend on accurate timing, technological flexibility, and the ability to adapt to new energy realities.
Izvestia sent a request to Novatek, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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