Let's make a correction: The US Supreme Court will cancel Trump's duties with a probability of 70%
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- Let's make a correction: The US Supreme Court will cancel Trump's duties with a probability of 70%
The US Supreme Court will cancel Trump's duties with a probability of 70%, follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. The authority considers illegal the tariffs that Donald Trump has imposed against most countries. At the same time, the American leader estimated the losses of the United States due to the possible cancellation of measures at $3 trillion. Nevertheless, in case of cancellation, Trump will still have workarounds — for example, the introduction of duties to ensure national security. How the possible abolition of high tariffs will affect Russia is described in the Izvestia article.
Supreme Court against Trump's tariffs
The probability that the Supreme Court will recognize the tariffs of US President Donald Trump as illegal is about 70%, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On November 5, the court began considering the case on duties — the court must decide whether the American leader had the right to introduce such measures, referring to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
During the hearings, it was discussed that the establishment of taxes and duties is traditionally the prerogative of Congress. According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer, a final decision may be made before the end of the year.
According to the results of the first review of the case, the chances that the imposed duties will remain in force decreased from 40-45% (before discussion) to 20-25%, noted Yuri Ichkitidze, macroeconomist at Freedom Finance Global. This means that the probability of their cancellation by the court is estimated at 75-80%. In addition, Oleg Shibanov, a professor at the Russian School of Economics, stressed that the probability of a decision on the legality of tariffs is now estimated at just over 26%. Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, supports a similar position.
Some experts have more optimistic forecasts. For example, Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, expects the measures to be lifted with a 55-70% probability, since the tone of the majority of judges was skeptical about the tariffs. Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets, pointed out that the chances of abolishing duties have become noticeably higher than of maintaining them. The figure above 50% was mentioned by all the experts interviewed by Izvestia.
— If the court decides against the tariffs, then "rollback" (cancellation and compensation of the consequences to all countries against which the measures were imposed. — Editor's note), including investments already made and planned, as well as refunds, will exceed $3 trillion. It will be impossible to repair such a huge damage," the American leader stressed.
According to Donald Trump, the United States will soon begin paying off its national debt with revenue from duties, which has already exceeded the $38 trillion mark. He also promised to pay each American $2,000 of these fees.
Donald Trump announced the imposition of duties against 185 countries in early April. Later, he repeatedly froze these tariffs. As a result of the trade deals, rates for some countries were reduced, for example, for Japan from 25% to 15% and Indonesia from 32% to 19%. With the European Union, Trump agreed to reduce tariffs from 30% to 15%, and in return, the EU promised to abandon Russian raw materials and annually purchase $250 billion worth of energy from the United States for three years. In addition, duties against China increased to 145%, but later the countries began a "trade truce" and stopped tariffs by 10%. Later, Washington postponed the introduction of increased duties on imports from Beijing until November 10, 2026.
Will Trump's tariffs be lifted after the Supreme Court's decision
However, the White House is likely to switch to other trade tactics and maintain restrictions, even if the Supreme Court declares the tariffs illegal, the Reuters news agency previously reported. Now the American president has several tools in stock.
For example, US legislation allows for duties to be imposed if it is necessary to protect national security — tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles are already working according to this scheme, Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets drew attention. In addition, the expert stressed, Washington can take measures against countries with "unfair" trade practices in accordance with the US Trade Act of 1974, as it has already done in the case of China. There is also another tool that allows you to quickly raise duties to 15% for a trade deficit of 150 days.
— Such mechanisms are slower and more limited than emergency powers, but they are quite workable. In addition, Trump has previously conducted investigations in order to assess the supply chains of electronics and semiconductors, which cover about 40% of American imports. So the trade barriers will not go away — only their legal justification will change," Igor Rastorguev clarified.
Nevertheless, the abolition of duties in the current volume will have a double effect on the United States. On the one hand, such a decision would have a positive impact on consumers and businesses: prices and costs for importers would decrease, and the average American family would save up to $1.8 thousand a year, economist Olga Gogaladze believes. Manufacturers who depend on imported raw materials, such as steel or semiconductors, would also feel relieved.
However, the financial consequences for the state would be severe: the refund increases the budget deficit and accelerates the growth of public debt, the expert continued. In this case, it would be necessary to additionally issue bonds and raise the cost of borrowing. And companies that invested under the protection of protectionism would have suffered losses, she added.
How will the cancellation of Trump's duties affect the Russian economy
Donald Trump did not impose direct duties against Russia, and trade with the United States has been small in recent years, said Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the Presidential Academy. In 2024, the mutual trade turnover between the two countries amounted to about $3.5 billion, the lowest figure since 1992.
Trade wars indirectly affect Russian exporters of raw materials: price fluctuations make resources more volatile, and demand for them decreases. As of November 19, the price of Urals crude oil was $65.49 per barrel, while energy prices have fallen by about 25% since the beginning of the year. This keeps the risk of oil and gas revenues not reaching the budget.
If the duties are abolished or at least suspended, the global economy will revive a little, and demand for energy resources will grow, Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets believes. This will support Russian exports.
For the global economy, the easing of tariff pressure will bring moderate support to trade activity, entrepreneur Denis Astafyev believes. Global supply chains will be facilitated — reverse logistics (returns, repairs) are now more expensive than the cost of goods themselves, said economist Olga Gogaladze.
At the same time, a completely "post-tariff" era should not be expected. According to her, uncertainty will persist for several months: companies do not know whether they will be refunded duties, and governments of different countries are not sure whether trade agreements will be respected.
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