Fewer and fewer vacancies: is unemployment growing in Russia
The tension in the labor market, which was recorded last year, is gradually receding. In October, the HH index (the ratio of resumes to vacancies) rose sharply from minimal to average values: now there are more people who want to find a job, but there were not so many vacancies. More recently, the picture was completely different. Meanwhile, Rosstat data show that unemployment has remained virtually unchanged and remains at record lows. What is the reason for such a discrepancy between the two metrics and in which industries the demand for personnel has fallen the most — in the Izvestia material.
The rapid growth of job seekers
Last year, the HH index showed record lows. So, in June 2024, it was at the level of 3.1, which means an extreme shortage of applicants. It was only in November of the same year that the indicator reached the 4 mark — a moderate level of competition for jobs. This year, it has been gradually growing and in October it immediately soared from 6.4 to 7.3 points. Now this indicator is in close proximity to the top eight. After this mark, the range of high levels of competition for job seekers begins, in fact, the situation is quite serious unemployment.
A significant shortage of staff is still noted in the retail trade (2.4 resumes per place), doctors and pharmacists are also in short supply (3.9 resumes). The working specialties in industrial production, as well as the automotive business, tourism and extraction of raw materials are relatively balanced.
It is difficult for white-collar workers, including representatives of the creative class (media, PR, art and entertainment), as well as managers, lawyers and accountants, to find work. The lowest demand is almost 38 resumes per place for job seekers in strategy, investment and consulting. In principle, this is logical, given that in a situation of uncertainty, employers begin to save on administrative staff in the first place.
Nevertheless, the rapid growth in the number of applicants clearly contradicts Rosstat data. Statistics from the department show that the unemployment rate has been at a historic low of 2.1% for several months and only increased slightly in September, reaching 2.2%. However, such an increase may be within the statistical margin of error. In fact, Rosstat believes that the labor market is still very tough for employers, and there is no problem of a slowdown in the economy and rising unemployment. Who is right?
Slowing demand
According to Vladislav Bukharsky, Associate Director for Sovereign and Regional Ratings at Expert RA, the growth of the index from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, according to HH statistics, was associated with a significant decrease in job offers from companies while maintaining the flow of active resumes, that is, there is a certain slowdown in demand in the economy.
— The job offer has been relatively stable in recent months, while the number of active resumes continues to increase. Most likely, the growth of the HH index, despite the continuing low unemployment rate, is associated with the popularization of the platform, where already working people are considering alternative earning options against the background of the ongoing wage race and possible issues that are not satisfied with their current location. This may also be due to the fact that not all companies are able to maintain competitive wages in the current environment.
As Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam, notes, the labor market as a whole shows mixed signals.
— On the one hand, the unemployment rate is close to the historical minimum (the latest value is 2.2%), which is considered a sign of a tense labor market. However, it is important to remember that the unemployment rate is an inertial, lagging indicator that does not immediately and fully reflect more "subtle" changes in the balance of labor supply and demand, the expert notes.
In particular, low unemployment may mean that the economy has a high proportion of employed people among the working-age population and there are no mass layoffs yet. But at the same time, enterprises can reduce the number of open vacancies, slow down wage growth, transfer some of their staff to part-time employment, and all this will not formally lead to an increase in unemployment, explains Olga Belenkaya.
According to her, it is necessary to look at other indicators, such as changes in the number of employees, changes in the number of open vacancies and active resumes, as well as take into account the proportion of employees transferred to part-time work. Data on the number of hours worked in the economy and salary dynamics will clarify the situation.
— The deterioration of working conditions may stimulate an increase in the number of active resumes. People may be looking for other jobs or part-time jobs, and this may contribute to the growth of the HH index. If at the same time the number of open vacancies decreases, then the growth of the HH index will be even more noticeable," Olga Belenkaya said.
Accounting difference
As Viktor Lyashok, a senior researcher at the INSAP Center of the IPEI Presidential Academy, notes, such discrepancies between official statistics and the analysis from HH are related to the accounting difference.
"Many people create and update their resumes while continuing to work at their old jobs, and are not unemployed from the point of view of Rosstat, so the increase in the number of resumes largely reflects not an increase in the number of unemployed, but an increase in those who want to find a new one," the expert explained.
However, the number of vacancies as in hh.ru Similarly, employment in government services continues to decline, with companies actively reducing hiring as a result of the cooling economy. At the same time, businesses traditionally do not lay off their employees, instead transferring them to part-time work. So, apparently, the peak of the labor shortage in Russia as a whole can be considered overcome, although it will still persist in some industries and regions.
Roman Karikh, a senior researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Laboratory of Evidence-based Economics, notes that the situation across industries is heterogeneous: employers from slowing sectors of the economy (manufacturing, the automotive sector, construction) resort to practices that expand hidden unemployment (for example, when switching to part-time work). This policy is not reflected in official data.
"The deterioration of working conditions, expressed primarily in a decrease in employee earnings due to a reduction in the number of working hours, increases the risks of layoffs and encourages employees from supercooling industries to look for additional opportunities in the labor market, while maintaining their employed status," the economist summed up.
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