From the side to Baku: what will the rapprochement of Azerbaijan with Ukraine lead to
On the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Copenhagen, Ilham Aliyev met with Vladimir Zelensky. According to official reports, defense cooperation was also discussed. Judging by the published videos, the dialogue was conducted in English. Earlier, Baku hinted that, against the background of the complication of relations with Russia, they might begin to cooperate more closely with Ukraine. Izvestia investigated the situation.
The difference in words
On the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Copenhagen, Ilham Aliyev met with Vladimir Zelensky. Interestingly, the press releases of the parties are quite different. Thus, the Azerbaijani version emphasizes that the politicians discussed political, economic and humanitarian issues, as well as cooperation in the field of energy and regional security.
The Ukrainian version says that Zelensky thanked his interlocutor for supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and during the meeting they discussed, among other things, a "potential defense partnership." Judging by the published videos, the negotiations were conducted in English, although both Aliyev and Zelensky know Russian perfectly well.
It should be noted that these are not the first recent contacts between the leaders of the two countries. In August, Zelensky and Aliev held a telephone conversation, during which the parties discussed, among other things, Russian strikes on targets in Ukraine. An intergovernmental commission meeting was held in July, and representatives of Kiev then suggested that Baku use Ukrainian gas storage facilities for the transit of Azerbaijani resources to Europe.
Their previous face-to-face meeting took place in January on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Interestingly, even then, the parties covered the negotiations in different ways. The Azerbaijani version talked about a dialogue on political and humanitarian issues, while the Ukrainian version emphasized that it was important for Kiev and Baku to "put pressure on Russia to force it to tell the truth."
In the shadow of the plane
On February 22, 2022, during his visit to Moscow, Ilham Aliyev signed a declaration on allied cooperation with Vladimir Putin. It talked about economic and cultural cooperation and even military-technical cooperation. It might seem that this is an important symbolic gesture, because two days later the war in Ukraine began. Later, Aliev, however, explained that the coincidence was accidental, the date was agreed in advance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the signing of the declaration on allied cooperation in Moscow
In the future, the Azerbaijani authorities were rather cautious about what was happening. In April 2022, Aliyev stressed that Baku supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, although it has good relations with Russia. The representative of the Azerbaijani authorities, Hikmet Hajiyev, then reported that the republic was ready to provide a platform for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev.
At that time, Azerbaijan focused on humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. It was reported, in particular, about the transfer of medicines, food, transformers and generators to Kiev. The total volume delivered over the past three and a half years is estimated at $40 million. In addition, Baku hosted Ukrainian children on its territory for medical and psychological rehabilitation.
The Transcaucasian Republic also supplied Ukraine with oil and petroleum products. The subsidiary of the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR reports that it controls four large oil depots in the country, and 1,800 employees work at its facilities. This summer, Kiev also bought gas from SOCAR for the first time, and blue fuel was supplied via Bulgaria and Romania via the Trans-Balkan Corridor.
At the same time, the Azerbaijani authorities stressed that they did not provide military assistance to Ukraine, although doubts about this periodically arose. The most famous episode occurred in December 2023, when Ukrainian blogger Roman Bochkala showed a factory for the production of 122-mm shells. He stated that the workshop was located in one of the "partner countries", while the symbols of the Azerbaijani Palladium group of companies could be seen behind his back. In Baku, the authorities and representatives of the company denied the production of weapons.
Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia deteriorated sharply at the end of last year. The reason was the crash of an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) flight from Baku to Grozny. This summer, there was a new round of tension when Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg conducted a raid against representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora.
Against this background, in August, the Azerbaijani authorities reported attacks on SOCAR's oil depot in Odessa. It was emphasized that a series of direct hits and large fires were recorded, as a result of which fuel tanks, the pumping station building, operator rooms, weighing rooms and technical rooms were damaged. In a telephone conversation with Zelensky, Ilham Aliyev called the strike targeted.
In addition, the Azerbaijani leader stated in one of his speeches that he advises Ukrainians "never to agree to the occupation." According to him, this approach has also helped Azerbaijan, which at one time did not accept the loss of Karabakh, and now has returned the region under its control. In another episode, he accepted the armband chevrons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a gift from a Kiev journalist and wished to "continue the same way."
Finally, the Azerbaijani media, citing their sources, wrote that the country's authorities are thinking about lifting the arms embargo on Ukraine. Kiev then noted that they were ready to accept Soviet artillery systems, tanks, armored personnel carriers and other equipment. Alexey Fadeev, Deputy Director of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that such decisions would only worsen the situation on earth.
What the experts say
Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Problems, emphasizes that Kiev and Baku have always sympathized with each other, and this summer the proximity of positions has become more noticeable.
— The Azerbaijani leadership is trying to achieve its goals. First of all, he wants to hear new apologies from Russia for the plane crash, although apologies have already been made before. They also want the release of representatives of their diaspora, who were previously detained on charges of various serious crimes. Relations with Ukraine are one of the ways to attract Moscow's attention here," he notes.
The expert adds that in the future, Baku may indeed publicly announce the lifting of the embargo on the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
— Such a step is unlikely to have a serious impact on the situation in the CBO zone. In the end, I don't think Russia will make any concessions. In fact, Azerbaijan cannot exert any noticeable pressure on Russia. I think Baku understands this, but they act by inertia, with some specific passion," says Silaev.
Vladimir Zharikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries, says that the Azerbaijani authorities began to overestimate their importance after the reconquest of Karabakh.
— Apparently, Aliyev considered himself a winner, a great man, and a certain dizziness from success began. It's probably worth calming down a bit in this situation. I would also like to note that the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia is hardly satisfied with what is happening. These people are influential not so much in our country as in their homeland, so Aliev is taking a lot of risks in the current conditions," he explains.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
