Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza will not lead to peace. And here's why

Israel has expressed its support for the plan proposed by US President Donald Trump to resolve the conflict in Gaza. No one has agreed on the terms of peace with the representatives of Palestine, they can only agree to the plan proposed by the United States and Israel. About why the consent of Palestine to Trump's plan does not guarantee a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Gaza — in the Izvestia article.

Palestine is not promised statehood

• The so—called "two—state solution" - Palestine and Israel - is missing from Trump's plan (we have described this plan in more detail here). Russia and the United Nations have repeatedly called for the creation of the State of Palestine and the end of the occupation of its territories by Israel, and Western countries have recently been leaning towards this decision: in September, Australia, Great Britain, Canada, Portugal, France and Belgium officially recognized Palestine.

• Trump's plan assumes only the possibility of creating a Palestinian state if "conditions for a real path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood" arise, which is not at all a guarantee of sovereignty, which the Palestinian side insisted on. Currently, Palestine consists of two enclaves that do not border each other — the Gaza Strip, controlled by the radical Hamas movement, and the territory of the West Bank, which is governed by the Palestinian National Authority and is actually controlled by Israeli troops.

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Israel does not keep its word

• Although Israel could have negotiated more favorable terms for itself, the expert community is confident that it was forced to accept Trump's peace plan. This could also be prompted by the expectation of a US government shutdown on October 1, which would force the United States to reduce spending on foreign policy and support for Israel. In this case, Tel Aviv will need the support of other countries, and agreeing to a peaceful settlement of the conflict should help regain the favor of European allies.

• The agreement provides for the release of all Israeli hostages within 72 hours of its signing. Israel will probably stick to Trump's plan until then, but after the hostages are returned, it can violate the agreements at any time and launch large-scale attacks, regardless of civilian casualties. Moreover, the administration of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not hide its plans to seize the Gaza Strip and the West Bank of the Jordan River.

• Tel Aviv has been repeatedly accused of violating agreements and provisions of international law. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza, reached in January with the participation of Egypt, Qatar and the United States, was violated by Israel immediately after the Palestinian side fulfilled the first stage of the agreements and returned 33 hostages. The very next day, Israel blocked humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza, leaving the enclave without fuel for electric generators. In addition, Israel, which promised, according to the American press, not to attack the Hamas delegation in Qatar, nevertheless hit Doha.

US guarantees don't work

• The credibility of US statements in the Middle East has been repeatedly undermined by Israeli actions. The attack by Israeli troops on representatives of the Hamas delegation in Doha, Qatar, despite the fact that the country is a long-standing and reliable partner of the United States, showed the Gulf countries that the American authorities are unable to control Israel and force it to adhere to agreements (we wrote about the consequences of Israeli strikes on Doha here).

• The United States probably also does not expect that their proposed settlement plan in Gaza will work in the long term. It can only have a short-term effect, allowing Washington to raise its image and ensure the withdrawal of hostages from Palestinian captivity. Trump's plan assumes that Israeli troops, even after their gradual withdrawal from the Palestinian territory, will continue to control the "security perimeter," and an international council led by the United States will coordinate the reconstruction of Gaza.

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• The demilitarization of the Gaza Strip and the financing of its reconstruction should be assumed by Arab countries. In the event of their refusal or inability to confront Hamas, Israel promised to resume military operations with the support of the United States. Tel Aviv has already stated that the refusal of the Palestinian side to conclude an agreement will be a reason for new attacks until the complete elimination of the Hamas movement.

• The leaders of the movement, weakened by opposition to Israel, will probably be forced to agree to Trump's plan, despite the fact that it involves the complete elimination of the group from the political field. Abandoning the agreement would mean a continuation of the conflict, and Western countries that had previously turned their backs on Israel would continue to support it if Palestine opposed the peace agreements. Given the vague wording of the agreement and Israel's intransigent position, Trump's plan risks becoming just a cover for preparing a new round of escalation of the conflict and further cleansing of the Gaza Strip.

During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Orientalist, international political scientist Elena Ostanina;
• Boris Dolgov, a leading researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Historical Sciences;
• Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;
• American political scientist Malek Dudakov.