Trump's Rubicon: the ban on annexation and the new order in Gaza
On Thursday, September 25, US President Donald Trump for the first time publicly promised not to allow Israel to annex the West Bank of the Jordan River, setting a clear "red line" in Middle East policy. At the same time, Washington supports the initiative to appoint former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as head of the international transitional administration of the Gaza Strip, the structure that will govern the enclave over the next five years. Against the backdrop of the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and the general instability, the new administration can give hope for maintaining fragile calm. Read more about how the situation in the Middle East will change and what is behind the new initiatives in the Izvestia article.
The West Coast is Trump's Red Line
US President Donald Trump has stated in a harsh and unequivocal manner that he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank of the Jordan River. The statement was made at a briefing in the Oval Office of the White House after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session, where further steps to resolve the conflict were discussed.
The US president made it clear that this issue is a "red line" that cannot be crossed.
"I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. No, I won't allow it, it won't happen," Trump stressed at a press conference in Washington.
In his speech, he also called for an end to talk about annexation.
"That's enough. It's time to stop," said the US political leader.
Earlier, Trump made the same promises to the leaders of Arab and Muslim countries during a closed-door meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. This position has become a key point in his administration's recently presented 21-point plan aimed at ending the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, as well as creating a new governing body for the enclave independent of Hamas radicals.
Trump's "plan" to resolve the conflict in the Gaza Strip includes, among other things, sending a military contingent made up of soldiers from Arab and Muslim countries to the enclave to stabilize the situation in Gaza after the conflict ends, as well as the simultaneous release of all hostages held by the radical Hamas movement.
Trump's statement, made against the background of international pressure and condemnation of Israel from Arab countries and Western states, sharply reduces the chances of implementing plans for the Jewish state to expand its jurisdiction in the West Bank. The area is currently under the control of Fatah (the dominant party in the Palestinian National Authority) led by Mahmoud Abbas.
At the same time, Trump expressed hope for an early truce in Gaza and the return of all hostages.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov called Trump's "Plan" absolutely incomprehensible and vague at the moment.
— Any plan will be nullified as long as it does not imply sanctions against Israel for non-compliance with the points. If there are any sanctions, then yes, this (plan - Ed.) will have some opportunities to promote something there," the expert says.
According to the orientalist, there will be no progress in resolving the conflict in Gaza without imposing sanctions, because Netanyahu is absolutely not interested in it. At the same time, some European countries may be ready to impose sanctions on Israel, but the United States will not do this, Kirill Semenov believes.
As orientalist Tural Kerimov added, Trump's new "Plan" for Gaza almost completely cancels his February initiative, the main part of which was to evict Palestinians from Gaza, occupy the enclave by Israel and control it by the Americans. The expert also noted that there was not a single country that would support this plan, except for Israel itself. Now the Americans are replaying the project, as they still have their own economic and political interests.
At the same time, Tural Kerimov does not rule out that the new plan may be a bluff and an attempt to appease the "Arab-Muslim street" on the one hand, and put pressure on the Israelis on the other.
Blair returns: a new helmsman for Gaza
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is ready to lead the international transitional administration of the Gaza Strip, which is planned to be established after the end of the active phase of the conflict. This is reported by The Economist, Politico and a number of other publications, citing sources close to the development of the strategy.
It is clarified that in the weeks following the outbreak of the military conflict in 2023, Blair repeatedly visited Jerusalem and instructed his interfaith charity Faith Foundation to develop a plan for a post-war mandate.
According to foreign sources familiar with the plan, Blair may head the so-called "International Transitional Authority of Gaza" (GITA), which will receive a UN mandate and will have the powers of the highest political and legal body for up to five years. It is assumed that the interim government will be based first in El-Arish (Egypt), after which it will enter the Gaza Strip under the escort of multinational forces mainly from Arab countries approved by the UN Security Council.
If approved, Blair will lead a seven-member council and will be able to rely on a 25-member secretariat that will manage and rebuild the Palestinian enclave. Financing is planned at the expense of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. An important part of the strategy will be the elimination of the influence of Hamas and the gradual transition under the control of the Palestinian Authority after the reforms. At the same time, the resettlement of Gazans is not provided.
The initiative has received support from the administration of US President Donald Trump, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, businessman and investor with Jewish roots Jared Kushner. Blair himself stressed his willingness to devote himself to ending the bloodshed and rebuilding the region amid the humanitarian crisis.
Palestine at a crossroads: can we expect changes?
Despite some declarations and international initiatives, the prospects for the establishment of an independent Palestinian State in 2025 remain extremely vague.
In September 2025, at the UN summit with the participation of more than 150 countries, the world's leading organization reaffirmed its support for the decision to create two states, an Israeli and a Palestinian, living in peace and security. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed that Palestine's right to statehood is not a reward, but a law, the denial of which only fuels radicalism and terrorism.
However, according to experts, the peace process has reached an impasse. Continued human rights violations, increased violence and the expansion of Jewish settlements seriously undermine trust and create obstacles to negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu categorically rejects the possibility of creating a Palestinian state, seeing it as a threat to the security of his own country.
In addition, the economic and humanitarian crisis in Gaza is being exacerbated not only by military action, but also by the blockade, thousands of deaths, lack of vital resources, destruction of infrastructure, and a pandemic of diseases. Post-conflict recovery will require billions of dollars in investments, which not all allies are willing to commit.
The difficulties are compounded by the internal problems of the Palestinian society. Disagreements between Fatah and Hamas hinder the formation of a unified strategy and effective governance. In these circumstances, the international community is looking for new formats of assistance, including through international transitional administrations.
Netanyahu's speech at the United Nations on September 26
On the evening of September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a session of the UN General Assembly, and at the beginning of his speech addressed the hostages in Gaza directly. His speech provoked a violent and contradictory reaction. When the head of the Israeli Government took the podium, many delegations defiantly left the hall. And then the speech of the head of the Israeli government was constantly interrupted by shouts, applause and whistles. The Chairman had to call the room to order six times.
— Netanyahu's speech at the UN is, first of all, a work for the domestic (Israeli) audience. Namely, to the right—wing conservative electorate, in order to show that the country's leadership does not succumb to external pressure and follows the course previously taken. Hence the sharpness of the wording. At the same time, the judgments are unequivocal: rejection of the idea of creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank in its current form," orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
The expert doubts that what is happening will lead to a wave of new recognitions of Palestine, but it will definitely affect the relations of world players with Israel.
— Individual steps are already being taken. For example, Spain was the first European country to permanently stop arms trade with the Israelis. A campaign has been announced (so far at the threat level) to recognize Netanyahu as persona non grata in a number of European countries. The escalation will be carried out step by step in order to put maximum pressure on the Israeli authorities," Leonid Tsukanov said.
At the same time, Israel will not take any new offensive steps towards the West Bank — at least not until the Prime Minister's business trip to the United States is completed.
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