Settlement progress: Will Hamas accept Trump's Gaza Plan

The United States and Israel have agreed on a settlement plan proposed by Donald Trump in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, the Hamas movement demands guarantees for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops, the cessation of hostilities and the transfer of control of the sector to the Palestinian side. The talks between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which took place at the White House on September 29, were a significant step towards ending the conflict, experts say. Washington has published a 20-point plan to end the crisis. But the Hamas movement is ready to discuss disarmament only in the context of the creation of a Palestinian State.

What does Trump's Gas plan include?

On September 29, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met at the White House. The main topic of the talks was the coordination of the details of the American settlement plan for the situation in the Gaza Strip.

The White House has unveiled President Trump's 20-point plan to end the conflict in Gaza. The document provides for specific stages and settlement mechanisms to be agreed upon by all parties through the mediation of the United States.

At a press conference following talks with Netanyahu, Trump thanked the Israeli Prime minister for agreeing to follow the White House peace plan. The American leader stressed that, according to his information, Hamas expressed its readiness to release the hostages.

According to the plan, the IDF will begin a phased withdrawal of troops based on established standards, key milestones and deadlines related to the demilitarization of the sector.

"And if Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible, then they will be left alone, everyone else has accepted it."… But I have a feeling that we will have a positive response. If not, then, as you know, (in Israel. — Izvestia) We will have our full support for what needs to be done," Trump said, addressing Netanyahu.

A separate paragraph of the document provides for the exchange of hostages: after the return of all prisoners, Israel will release 250 prisoners sentenced to life in prison, as well as 1,700 Gazans detained after October 7, 2023, including all women and children. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are returned, Tel Aviv will hand over the remains of 15 dead Gazans.

In addition, the text of the plan states that after Israel officially recognizes the proposed agreement, Hamas will have 72 hours to release the hostages.

— Today we are laying the foundations for promoting peace in the region. I support your plan to end the war in Gaza. He will return all our hostages to Israel and rid Hamas of its combat capabilities. This would not have been possible if not for the participation of our brave warriors who fought like lions," Netanyahu said in turn.

Is Hamas ready to disarm

The key points — the cessation of military operations, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops, as well as a large-scale prisoner and hostage exchange deal - represent a serious argument for the Palestinians, but the proposal also contains points that Israel has long insisted on.

Among them are the commitment of Hamas to disarm, the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip and the launch of the process of "deradicalization" of the population. The specific sequence of these steps has not yet been determined, however, they are expected to be implemented in parallel with the end of hostilities.

It is these demands that can seriously complicate the adoption of the Hamas plan, and the inclusion in the document of a possible path to the creation of a Palestinian state risks becoming a "red line" for Netanyahu, who regularly declares the inadmissibility of such a step.

The issue of disarming Hamas can only be resolved through a consensus plan and dialogue between the parties concerned and the movement itself, Palestinian security expert Mohammed al-Masri told Izvestia.

— Hamas is ready to discuss this subject exclusively in the context of the creation of a Palestinian state or the beginning of a political process leading to its formation. Who will be responsible for disarmament? Of course, Arab countries, the Palestinian National Authority (PA), or even the Americans," the expert emphasized.

Palestinian expert Ayman al-Raqeb noted that the talks at the White House open up a real opportunity to reach an agreement on the Gaza Strip. According to him, Hamas' combat capabilities are limited today, and the organization understands the need for compromises to maintain its position and influence.

"The Hamas armament today is limited and mainly consists of several machine guns, while the movement no longer has heavy weapons, including rockets," the expert told Izvestia.

Sources of the Saudi Asharq TV channel note that the document contains many general formulations, leaving room for different interpretations. According to the Palestinians, the Israeli leadership can use this to maintain control over part of the territory and continue military operations under other pretexts.

Trump, in an interview with Reuters on the eve of the meeting, expressed confidence that all parties want to make a deal. The American leader said he had received a "very good response" from Israel and a number of Arab countries regarding possible agreements. According to him, consultations on the settlement are "in the final stages" and can create the basis for a broader agreement in the Middle East.

Withdrawal of Israeli troops

The plan pays special attention to the release of hostages held by Hamas. Washington expects that this step will become a key element of trust between the parties. Nevertheless, the document is viewed with caution in Gaza.

Hamas representatives say that without guarantees of a complete and timely withdrawal of troops, as well as the cessation of Israeli military operations, the agreement may turn out to be a formality. "The experience of the Palestinian people shows that such promises about the withdrawal of troops can last for years or be completely thwarted, as happened in the West Bank," a Hamas spokesman told Asharq.

According to the channel's sources, the movement demands guarantees from the United States and intermediaries — Egypt, Qatar and Turkey — for the withdrawal of Israeli troops, the cessation of hostilities and the creation of a Palestinian authority to manage the sector.

In the coming days, the text of the American proposal is expected to be officially transmitted to Hamas through intermediaries. The media reports that the movement is ready to discuss compromises on a number of key issues, from sector governance and gun control to the possible departure of some of its leaders. However, such concessions are possible only if guarantees are obtained for the end of the war and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.

According to al-Masri, the movement is ready to consider the proposal, but has a number of reservations. In particular, Hamas emphasizes that its security forces associated with the Interior Ministry and civil defense cannot be removed from control. "These civilian structures should continue to operate in the Gaza Strip, and it is on this issue that detailed discussions are underway with the movement," the Palestinian expert concluded.

The delegations of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, he added, would support Donald Trump's plan if it was agreed with the PA, since "the Palestinian problem cannot be discussed without the participation of the Palestinians themselves."

Thus, the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu at the White House may become important for the future Gas agreement. The United States and Israel are demonstrating their readiness for final agreements, but without the consent of Hamas, the implementation of the plan remains in doubt.

Meanwhile, the situation in the exclave is tense. On September 16, the IDF launched a massive offensive on Gaza City called Gideon's Chariot 2. The IDF reports that about 700,000 residents have already evacuated to the southern areas of the sector after the announcement of offensive plans last month.

At the same time, the military wing of Hamas warned the Israel Defense Forces that the expansion of operations in Gaza could endanger the remaining hostages, about 20 of whom are believed to be still alive. The militant wing of Hamas has already reported that, amid the strikes, it lost contact with two hostages, Omri Miran (also holds Hungarian citizenship) and Matan Angrest.