Why is Europe accelerating the militaristic wave because of "Russian" drones? Analysis

Over the past month, European countries have been accusing Russia of violating their air spaces — such statements are unsubstantiated from Poland, Romania and Estonia. Russia is also being blamed for the recent drone incidents in Norway and Denmark. European leaders are talking about the need to shoot down Russian aircraft in case of border violations and are discussing the creation of a "drone wall." In addition, several NATO exercises have recently started at once, including in the Baltic, where elements of the blockade of St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad region are being practiced. Izvestia investigated why Europe is escalating the situation and whether it is worth waiting for further escalation.

How NATO is escalating the situation

• Poland announced on September 10 that two dozen Russian drones violated its airspace, some of them were shot down. At the same time, Warsaw acknowledged that none of the drones found had a warhead and posed no threat to humans. There was no evidence that the drones were Russian. Russia said that on the night of September 10, the Russian Armed Forces attacked military-industrial facilities in Ukraine, the flight range of the UAV did not exceed 700 km, which means they could not enter Polish territory. Russia is confident that the drones arrived in Poland from Ukraine.

• Romania also detected an alleged Russian drone in its airspace on September 13. Fighter jets were scrambled to intercept it, but the drone seemed to change course and headed towards Ukraine. The Russian ambassador was summoned to the country's Foreign Ministry to protest. However, Romania did not provide convincing answers to questions about the drone's identification, so the protest was rejected as unfounded.

Drone Project: Who is behind the drone incident in Poland

And why are the positions of NATO and the EU regarding what happened different?

• Estonia claims that on September 19, three MiG-31 aircraft entered its airspace. However, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, in fact, Russian fighter jets did not violate the borders of Estonia.: They made a scheduled flight from Karelia to the Kaliningrad region and did not deviate from the agreed route.

• Norway and Denmark noticed some drones in their airspace on the night of September 23. Airports in the capitals had to be temporarily closed. The authorities of the two countries are currently investigating a possible link between the incidents. At the same time, Denmark has already stated that they do not exclude the involvement of Russia. The Kremlin replied that they consider such assumptions to be unfounded.

• Warsaw and Tallinn requested consultations on Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, and also convened emergency meetings of the UN Security Council. At one of them, British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper warned of the risks of a direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia. Against this background, statements are being made from the Czech Republic, Germany, and Lithuania about the need to shoot down planes or drones in case of border violations. In addition, NATO announced the launch of Operation Eastern Sentry, which provides for strengthening the security of the eastern flank — it involves the forces of a dozen countries, including Denmark, France, Great Britain, Germany, and the Czech Republic.

Why does Europe need escalation

• These incidents are another excuse that European countries use to justify their confrontational policies. They are purposefully engaged in escalation in the field of military and political security. This fact is also confirmed by the exercises that NATO member states conducted in the Baltic Sea from September 22 to 26 (Neptune Strike), where they most likely practiced elements of the blockade of St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad region. NATO Tiger Meet aviation exercises have also started in Portugal, which are called one of the largest air maneuvers of the alliance in Europe.

•​​​​​​​ The Russian expert community is confident that the mastermind of the militaristic hysteria is Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky. He argues that Russia is deliberately expanding its drone operations and that the West needs to respond with tougher sanctions, as well as strengthen defense cooperation with Kiev. He has already suggested that Poland and Romania shoot down drones together.

•​​​​​​​ The course towards the militarization of Europe was outlined back in the summer of 2024, when Ursula von der Leyen took office as head of the European Commission for the second time (we wrote more about the military plans of European officials here). In her speech, she then clearly indicated that from now on Europe will move towards strengthening defense, and since then, despite serious budget problems that have already caused a political crisis in France, Germany and the UK, the EC has been building ever more ambitious and costly plans for the development of the defense industry.

• The current wave of confrontation caused by the violation of airspace is aimed at drawing the United States deeper into the Ukrainian crisis and confrontation with Russia. Europe also expects to convince Washington not to curtail its support for NATO allies. Until recently, Europe's dependence on the United States in terms of ensuring its own security could hardly be overestimated — in addition to the American contingents stationed directly at bases in EU countries, it was from the United States that European states acquired a significant part of military equipment.

•​​​​​​​ At the same time, many NATO countries are experiencing a serious financial crisis — they are trying to disguise their problems by demonizing Russia. This is convenient on the eve of the upcoming electoral cycle in Europe, which is likely to face a change of ruling elites, because current politicians need to somehow justify their need to stay in power. And we also need to justify unpopular support for Ukraine — having a common enemy makes it much easier.

•​​​​​​​ This kind of escalation has not been seen for a long time, analysts say, and warn that the situation could threaten a serious conflict. Tougher provocations are expected in the future, but so far Russia is only being tested for its readiness to respond.

The state of the European defense industry

•​​​​​​​ In Europe, they recognize that their drone detection system is not effective enough, and they are discussing the creation of a "drone wall" along the eastern borders of the EU, which will stretch from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. This initiative echoes the long-standing idea of a pan-European air defense shield, which was actively discussed last year, but has quietly disappeared from the agenda. The "Drone Wall" is also not a new project — they have been talking about it since 2023 at the suggestion of Lithuania. The proposal was supported by several other countries, but the EU rejected the funding application.

Boundary condition: The "drone wall" will cost the EU €3-7 billion.

The costly project, approved by Brussels, will impose an "unbearable debt" on the countries of the association, the European Parliament warned.

•​​​​​​​ It is not yet known what the "wall" will be like. Presumably, it could be a UAV detection and jamming system. The launch of the project may boost the production and deployment of drones in Europe, while the existing arsenals of drones pale in comparison with Russian and Ukrainian ones.

It is really difficult for Europe to resist drone attacks — it is very expensive for it. So, the drones discovered in Poland were made of plywood and expanded polystyrene, and F-16 and F-35 fighters worth tens of millions of dollars were lifted to intercept them. Each hour spent by such aircraft in the air costs tens of thousands of dollars, including fuel and maintenance costs. Experts also point out that drone protection systems are expensive and cannot be mass-produced. This is partly because large defense companies that have spent decades developing expensive air defense systems may not want to bring something new and cheaper to the market.

• European plans for militarization in Brussels are presented as necessary preparation in case of confrontation with a major military power. The current state of the European Armed Forces is quite deplorable. After the end of the cold war, European governments preferred not to spend much on developing their own military-industrial complex and training parts of their armed forces, spending the budget for other purposes. Only a few countries in the EU can boast of an adequate level of combat readiness.

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•​​​​​​​ For the most part, the armed forces of European states have had no real combat experience in recent decades. There are also obvious problems with the readiness for the deployment of large military units. For example, France has one of the largest armies in the EU (about 200 thousand people), but in the event of an intense conflict, Paris will actually be ready to quickly deploy only one unit — 8 thousand troops at most, and it is not a fact that it will be able to ensure their adequate rotation. And in the UK, which, although it has a large defense budget, the land forces and the Navy can hardly be considered ready to participate in a major conflict — against the background of serious problems with infrastructure, equipment and the size of the armed forces. At the same time, European countries should not be underestimated, since several years will be enough for them to rebuild and scale the defense industry if they have financing.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• military expert, retired Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk;
• political scientist Yuri Svetov;
• Dmitry Solonnikov, Director of the Institute of Modern State Development, political scientist;
• American political scientist Malek Dudakov.