Boundary condition: The "drone wall" will cost the EU €3-7 billion.

Europe is going to build a "drone wall" — a multi-level line of detection and interception of drones. Izvestia estimates that the cost of such a project could range from €3 billion to €7 billion. The "wall" should stretch from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. The main supporters of the project are the authorities of Poland, Finland and the Baltic countries. At the same time, Slovakia was not invited to the discussion. The European Parliament stated that the project is needed to bind the countries of the continent with unbearable debts. Experts are confident that the initiative is beneficial only to the European military—industrial complex and the political elite of the EU. There are doubts that European countries will be able to implement the project at all. About the prospects of building a "drone wall" and the details of the modern arms race - in the material of Izvestia.

EU to spend up to €7 billion on drone wall

Over the next four years, EU countries will spend from €3 to €7 billion on the European project to create a multi-level anti-drone system, better known as the "drone wall", Izvestia found out.

In our calculations, we were based on NATO standards, data from the European Commission and other documents. In particular, we took into account the EU's basic anti-drone policy, the financial and industrial framework of the association, the principles of functioning of NATO's anti-drone tactics, and the approximate prices of European contracts. .

The very idea of the "drone wall" is to create a line that includes UAV detection fields, electronic warfare systems and various means of interception and destruction under a single command and staff control. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, uses the phrase "from the Baltic to the Black Sea." It is known that Finland, the Baltic states, Romania and Bulgaria are already participating in the project. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that Bratislava, Budapest and Prague were not invited to the discussion. He also added that the project will be expensive and no one knows if it will work at all.

The land line from Finland to the Black Sea stretches for about 3.8 thousand km. A framework of drone detection nodes with a step of about 20 km will cost the Europeans €550 million – € 1 billion. This step is a working engineering assumption that allows you to cover different types of terrain. Another €50 – €150 million will be required for mobile response teams. Strengthening of critical facilities, including ports, airports, and energy, will add from 500 million euros to 1 billion euros.

The coasts and the sea are a separate line: another €1-2 billion. The most expensive part is interceptors, drones and other means of destruction, they will have to spend € 1-3 billion.

The most difficult part of the project is considered to be the integration of such systems belonging to five or more countries so that they can equally assess the environment and threats, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

The "fork" in estimates is explained by the fact that the final line density and saturation with weapons have not yet been approved. In addition, the price will be influenced by the terrain and market fluctuations. Izvestia's figures should be considered as a "rough estimate" of how much the Europeans will have to spend on the implementation of this initiative in the next four years.

The estimate of the cost of the "drone wall" will change as the European Commission sets its requirements for the project, MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia. At the same time, he expressed bewilderment at the fact that the EU elevates itself to the rank of a political and budgetary player.

— As usual, the bill will be billed to the states later — in the form of mandatory contributions or mutual debts. Budgetary opacity works as a political choice here: the further the commission moves in the fog, the easier it will be for it to drive member states into an expensive project from which they will no longer be able to get out," the MEP stressed.

Military expert Vadim Koroshchupov agreed with our assessment of the cost of the project. In a conversation with Izvestia, he confirmed that the cost of such a line of fortifications could reach €7 billion, but this is the maximum figure.

According to him, the Europeans will look for high-tech solutions that will significantly reduce the cost of creating such a line of defense. The leaders of the EU countries simply do not have enough detection systems to place them along the entire line in 20 km increments. Koroshchupov cited the reusable Roadrunner interceptor drone developed by Anduril as a possible solution to the problem. Combined with ground-based radars and artificial intelligence, it is able to cover large areas and return to base on its own. Using such drones can significantly reduce the cost of the "drone wall".

— The Europeans will try to combine air defense, drones and artificial intelligence systems. They already have two French companies, including Mistral AI. And the Germans also have two companies working in the field of drones and artificial intelligence," Koroshchupov said.

He stressed that the main beneficiaries of such large projects could be the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden. These countries have a well-developed military-industrial base.

Will Europe be able to cope with the implementation of the Drone Walls project

The European Union will spend a lot of money on creating a "drone wall," and the deadlines will be constantly stretched, expert Dmitry Stefanovich said in a conversation with Izvestia.

The entire project to create a "drone wall" is just an excuse to steal EU funds, military expert Viktor Litovkin believes. No one is going to launch drones in the European Union, and the creation of such a line of defense is necessary for European politicians to justify rising prices and deteriorating living standards in European countries, he said.

Political scientist Gevorg Mirzayan expressed a similar opinion. He stressed that the European Union currently has many large-scale projects in the field of remilitarization, but it is not known where the EU countries will take money for them. At the same time, some projects may be curtailed after politicians come to power in the next electoral cycle.

— New politicians in Europe will come precisely on the denial of the European sector of colossal economic costs. They will say, "we don't need this," "we are withdrawing from these projects," "but we will not finance here." And everything will calm down by itself," he said.

It is noteworthy that the deadlines for the implementation of the program are not called. The European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, said that during the year the countries will be able to significantly increase their detection capabilities on the eastern flank. At the same time, the implementation of a full-fledged network, which includes a combination of detection, electronic warfare and interception, will take much longer.

The real beneficiaries of rising tensions in Europe

While Europe is preparing to defend itself from Russian drones, Ukraine is launching UAV attacks on infrastructure in Russia. On September 24, two people were killed and seven houses were damaged as a result of an attack by the Ukrainian army using drones in Novorossiysk.

But this is not of interest to EU officials. They need convenient excuses. For example, the recent drone incident in Poland is a reason to further strengthen NATO's eastern flank. On the night of September 9-10, according to various estimates, up to two dozen unknown UAVs violated the country's airspace. Some of them were shot down by the alliance aircraft, some fell by themselves. As a result, NATO countries groundlessly accused Russia of provocation, despite Moscow's proposals for a joint investigation of the incident.

Another reason was the flight of Russian MiG-31 aircraft in the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea on September 19. Estonia has accused Russia of violating the country's airspace. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded by saying that Russian planes had not violated any borders and the Russian Federation had evidence of this. In addition, there was an incident with unknown drones near Copenhagen Airport on the night of September 22-23, which allegedly circled around the aircraft factory for several hours.

—Drone flights to Poland and Denmark serve only one purpose — to enrich the military-industrial complex of Europe and the politicians of individual European countries,— Litovkin stressed.

European countries used these cases to win over US President Donald Trump to their side on the issue of conflict resolution. And it paid off. After meeting with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on September 23, Trump said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes that violate their space, and Ukraine would be able to recapture the territories occupied by the Russian Federation.

After the words of the American president, the indices of European defense companies rose. Saab, Germany's Hensoldt and Rheinmetall, Italy's Leonardo and other companies added the most. Analysts explain the dynamics by expectations of new defense contracts and accelerated order growth amid the escalating conflict. In this context, it becomes clear why the project with the "drone wall" was given the political "green light".

First of all, the project is politically beneficial to the European Commission, said Thierry Mariani. The EC seeks to assume the role of a "pilot" in the field of defense, although this area does not belong to it.

— Behind this "wall of drones" is an attempt to impose on Europe a "Bismarckian moment" — like the German federal unification through war — and a "Hamiltonian moment" — like American federalization through debt. In other words, to provoke a security crisis, and then combine it into a pan—European unbearable debt in order to force political integration, which the peoples have never wanted or demanded," he said.

In this logic, the "drone wall" looks less like a response to threats than a tool for redistributing budgets and influence. As company indexes, political risks, and the debt burden of countries grow, the EU's security architecture is increasingly tied to a pattern of certain obligations to protect against an external enemy. In this way, escalation becomes a resource beneficial to a narrow range of beneficiaries from defense concerns to Brussels agencies, while the real price is paid by Member states and their citizens.