Drone Project: Who is behind the drone incident in Poland

The Europeans use any information pretext to interfere with the negotiation process on Ukraine, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The day before, the Polish authorities announced a violation of the country's airspace by unknown drones. Warsaw and Brussels were quick to blame Russia for everything, while NATO continues to assess the situation. The Russian Defense Ministry announced its readiness for consultations with the Polish side, while Russian diplomats stressed that no evidence of Russian involvement had been provided. About who benefits from the unexpected appearance of drones over Poland — in the Izvestia article.

What is known about the UAV incident in Poland

On the morning of September 10, the operational command of the Polish Armed Forces announced the destruction of several objects identified as drones that violated the country's airspace. The General Staff of the Polish army called the incident "an act of aggression that created a real threat to the safety of citizens." However, if the military did not indicate the identity of the drones, then Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk immediately declared them Russian.

"Most likely, we are dealing with a large—scale provocation," he said before an emergency government meeting.

The Polish military lifted military aircraft into the air, and radar and air defense systems were put on alert. At the same time, there are no specifics on the number of drones and damage from the raid yet. Donald Tusk said that at least 19 UAVs violated Polish airspace. Later, the country's Interior Ministry reported that the wreckage of seven UAVs and one rocket of unknown origin had been found on its territory. The Polsat News publication published the news that one of the drones hit an apartment building in the village of Vyryki in the Lublin voivodeship.

Polish President Karol Nawrocki announced that he was convening an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. He stressed that the incident was "an unprecedented moment in the history of NATO and Poland." Prime Minister Tusk spoke in the same spirit.

"This situation is bringing us all closer to open conflict than at any time since the Second World War," said the head of the Polish government.

Warsaw has activated Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It stipulates that the member States of the alliance will consult with each other if, in their opinion, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.

The Polish authorities also announced the transfer of their units to the border with Belarus. Earlier, Warsaw closed this border allegedly because of the threat against the background of the Zapad-2025 military exercises between Russia and Belarus.

The fact that Poland uses precisely article 4 of the treaty, and not Article 5, which refers to a joint military response, indicates that Warsaw does not consider the threat to be serious, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor at the MGIMO Department of Political Theory at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. In his opinion, this situation has two beneficiaries.

— The first is the Polish government headed by Donald Tusk, which currently has a popularity rating of 15-20%, and it needs measures to increase its popularity. And this military frenzy, which can now be dispersed internally about potentially Russian drones, can help the Tusk government," the political scientist pointed out.

In addition, the incident with the UAV in Poland is beneficial to Ukraine, as the recent attack on the Cabinet building did not make much of a response. And now, since there is a resonance in relation to the territory of Poland, undoubtedly, the regime of Vladimir Zelensky will try to use this for self-promotion.

The reaction of Russia, NATO and the EU

Andrei Ordash, the charge d'affaires of Russia, who was summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry, said that the Polish authorities had not provided evidence of the Russian origin of the drones shot down over the country's territory.

"We know one thing — these drones were flying from Ukraine,— Ordash said.

Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov forwarded questions about the incident with the UAV over Poland to the Ministry of Defense. He clarified that the Kremlin had not received any requests from the Polish leadership for contacts with the Russian side.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it was ready to hold consultations with the Polish Defense Ministry on this topic. They noted that there were no planned targets for destruction on the territory of this country. At night, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted a massive blow on enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr regions, as well as in the cities of Vinnytsia and Lviv. These plants produced and repaired armored and aviation equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, produced engines and electronic components for them, as well as UAVs.

"On the southern and southwestern outskirts of the city of Lviv, the workshops of the Lviv Armored Plant, where repairs and modernization of armored vehicles were carried out, as well as the Lviv Aircraft Factory LDARZ, where long-range unmanned aerial vehicles were manufactured and combat aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repaired, were affected. The objectives of the strike have been achieved. All designated objects are affected. Targets for destruction on the territory of Poland were not planned. The maximum flight range of the Russian UAVs used in the strike, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km," the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it was ready to join consultations between the defense ministries of Russia and Poland. Smolenskaya Square also drew attention to the explanations from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

"These concrete facts completely debunk the myths once again spread by Poland to further escalate the Ukrainian crisis," the foreign ministry said.

They stressed that the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, Mark Rutte, speaking after a meeting of the NATO Council on Article 4 held at the request of Poland, could not answer the question about the presence of "evidence" and indicated that "the investigation of what happened is ongoing."

According to Reuters, NATO does not consider the incident with the violation of Polish airspace as an attack. According to the agency's source, the drones were shot down by Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35 and Italian AWACS reconnaissance aircraft. Mark Rutte also said that "the alliance is vigilant and will defend every inch of its territory."

Poland's neighbors are also in no hurry to blame the Russian Federation. Thus, according to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris, so far there is no reason to call the entry of drones into Polish airspace deliberate. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Baltic Republic also summoned the Russian Charge d'affaires.

Belarus believes that the incident was the result of electronic warfare between Ukraine and Russia. Chief of the Belarusian General Staff Pavel Muraveyko said: The republic's armed Forces tracked the "lost" drones and transmitted the information to Poland and Lithuania.

At the same time, the EU has already blamed Russia for this situation.

"Today we have seen a reckless and unprecedented violation of the airspace of Poland and Europe by more than ten Russian Shahedov—type UAVs," EC President Ursula von der Leyen said during a speech at the European Parliament.

EU representatives intend to use a variety of information provocations to disrupt the emerging negotiation progress. NATO tries to avoid statements that could exacerbate tensions, and besides, the key role in the alliance is played by the administration of Donald Trump, who takes a more balanced approach to what is happening. There are enough "hawks" in the EU who hope to continue using Ukraine as a tool to contain Russia and solve their own internal problems, says Oleg Karpovich, vice-rector of the Diplomatic Academy.

— We will continue to observe from the Europeans the steps aimed at prolonging the Ukrainian conflict. Poland, which is in a state of internal division, will be particularly active — the fight against the fictional Russian threat will help participants in Polish politics gain additional points, the expert believes.

However, NATO will not be able to provide a military response without the United States. And the United States today is not interested in escalating the conflict with Russia. Washington's stated goal is de—escalation, an attempt to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. And if Washington does not join any possible military response, then the own forces of European NATO members and, possibly, Canada, simply will not be enough, Ivan Loshkarev summed up.

Which drones came to Poland

The situation with the UAV could definitely be a provocation by Ukraine or one of the Baltic countries, military expert Viktor Litovkin believes. He recalled how in 2022, a Ukrainian air defense missile flew to Poland and killed two people there.

— Zelensky stated that it was a Russian missile, the same was said by Polish President Andrzej Duda. Biden said it was a Ukrainian missile. Duda immediately changed his shoes, and Zelensky still claims that it was a Russian missile. Only recently, Duda said that Zelensky was trying to drag Poland into the war and staged such a provocation," Litovkin recalled.

At the same time, there is practically no chance that the Russian Gerani UAVs could fly into Poland, military expert Alexei Leonkov told Izvestia.

— The fact is that drones that are launched in the western regions of Ukraine always follow the flight mission. And our new military satellites, which are in orbit, track their movement, including by means of airspace control," the expert emphasized.

He noted that Belarus is talking about the same thing. They monitored everything that was happening in the airspace and said that drones were flying in from Ukraine, which had to be shot down. Leonkov noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces tend to use drones to shoot down other drones.

— The fact that the drones are not ours is unequivocal. After all, we are working with precision weapons, not imitations of them. And we have no reason to hit Poland," the military expert believes.

According to Leonkov, the provocation was necessary in order for the "coalition of the willing" to have levers with which they would put pressure on Donald Trump in order to somehow drag the United States back into the conflict in Ukraine or at least provide Europe with security guarantees.