"We are budgeting for 2026 at the key level of 12-13%"
When preparing the draft budget, the Ministry of Finance relies on the base scenario of the Central Bank and takes into account the key rate at the level of 12-13%, the head of the department Anton Siluanov told Izvestia in an interview at the Moscow Financial Forum (MFF). He also stressed that Russia is working with China to create a depository that will allow investors to do without Western infrastructure. At the same time, according to the minister, external restrictions do not prevent the state from fulfilling its social obligations. Anton Siluanov talks about how stable the budget is and what lessons can be learned from the Moscow government in an exclusive interview.
"Dogs bark, but the budget fulfills its obligations"
— The anniversary Moscow Financial Forum is taking place today. What do you think are the key issues raised here over the past 10 years that have proved to be the most significant for the development of Russia's financial system?
— For the entire duration of the forum, especially the last five or six years, we have faced serious challenges for the country's financial system. This applied to both the budget and monetary policy. Therefore, the IFF has become an important platform for discussing tasks that need to be taken into account when preparing the budget. It traditionally takes place before the document is submitted to the State Duma, and this provides an opportunity to exchange views on tax policy, budget priorities, and spending structure. All the topics that concern financiers, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Russia and the forum participants in general are reflected here.
We are holding the forum jointly with the Moscow government, and this is also important. The Moscow budget is stable and balanced, and the financial stability of the capital can serve as an example for others. There is much to learn from our colleagues from the metropolitan government. Therefore, the IFF is always about mutual enrichment. Many representatives of the regions come here, and foreign guests also participate. So the forum is really a good platform for discussing financial issues, especially on the eve of the budget process.
— You mentioned challenges. Which of them, in your opinion, are facing the financial system of the Russian Federation today?
— First of all, these are financial constraints that we have already learned how to work with and understand how to proceed. It is important to build a budget structure that can withstand any challenges — sanctions, restrictions, duties, bans. The main thing is that our people do not feel the negative consequences. All social obligations — pensions, allowances, payments to families with children — must be fulfilled. This is the task of the Ministry of Finance — as they say, dogs bark, and the budget fulfills its obligations.
Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov at the plenary session "Financial System: Challenges and Tasks" at the X Moscow Financial Forum
— During the plenary session today, you said that the task of the budget for the next three years is to "soften" monetary policy. In this regard, I would like to clarify, what level of the key rate are you planning to budget for next year?
— We are guided by the document of the Bank of Russia "Main directions of monetary policy". It provides several scenarios. We proceed from a baseline scenario where the budget remains balanced. If we talk about numbers, there is a range of rates of 12-13%. This is an intermediate value. Accordingly, we are budgeting for 2026 at the key level of 12-13%.
"If the Western infrastructure is closed to us, then we need to create an alternative"
— Returning to the topic of financial system development, you recently said that Russia and China are working on creating their own depository, which will become an alternative to Euroclear and Clearstream. How is this work progressing?
— If the Western infrastructure is closed to us, then we need to create an alternative. My colleagues from the People's Republic of China and I are discussing this difficult but very important issue. The goal is for our investors to be able to freely buy securities in one country from another, without restrictions and obstacles, so that they can safely invest in securities of companies in our countries. We raise this issue in financial dialogues with the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China.
— How will this system differ from the existing international ones?
— In fact, nothing. But the main thing is that it should be accessible to our participants. Today, the Western infrastructure is beyond our reach, so we are creating our own tool.
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