Division rules: in Russia they want to introduce a tax on excess profits of banks
On the eve of the budget debate, deputies are actively looking for new sources of government revenue. One of the options is a one—time tax on banks' excess profits. Such a bill will be submitted to the State Duma on September 18, Izvestia found out. The deputies are sure that the incomes of banks have increased significantly over the past two years, so they should give some of them — 200 billion rubles — to the state. Economists have estimated that this amount will cover only 5% of the budget deficit. The idea of a tax in the State Duma is approved by the SRZP, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. At the same time, United Russia and New People viewed it with skepticism, noting that banks spend these funds on lending to the economy. About why the deputies want to introduce a tax on excess profits and whether it will help solve the problem of budget deficit is in the Izvestia article.
How is it planned to collect the tax on excess profits?
The introduction of a one—time tax on banks' excess profits in the amount of 10% involves an initiative developed by the Fair Russia - For Truth party. Banks will have to pay it by January 28, 2026, according to the bill, which will be submitted to the State Duma on September 18 (Izvestia has the text).
— The State Duma will soon begin discussing the draft budget for next year. It is already clear that it will be in short supply. It is necessary to look for additional sources of income for social support of citizens and solving the priority tasks of economic development," Sergei Mironov, the leader of the SRZP, told Izvestia. — I am convinced that it is the banks that should become the first "candidates" for paying increased taxes. They have been making a lot of money all year due to the high key interest rate, they have made super profits, which means they have to pay much more money to the budget than in previous years.
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, a record net profit of 3.8 trillion rubles was set in 2024. A year earlier, this figure was 3.3 trillion rubles, and in 2022 - 203 billion. In other words, this indicator has increased almost 19 times in two years. "In this regard, the draft law proposes a mechanism for withdrawing additional profits from the banking sector by introducing a one—time tax for the periods 2023-2024," the explanatory note says.
Excess profit will be calculated as the excess of the arithmetic average profit for 2023 and 2024 over the arithmetic average for 2022 and 2021. If the banks had no income during this period, they are exempt from tax. This calculation mechanism is identical to the one prescribed in the earlier law on the tax on excess profits of large companies. It was introduced in 2023, had a one-time nature and amounted to 10%. As a result, the federal budget received about 315 billion rubles. But super-profitability is also forming in the banking sector, so the initiative proposes to introduce a tax on these organizations, said Sergey Mironov.
At the same time, after the withdrawal of the excess profit tax in 2023, the government did not offer to repeat the experience. Moreover, the Ministry of Finance is confident that these windfalls are needed by Russian banks to lend to the economy.
— We currently have no external financing, we need our own financial resources. Where are these resources? Of course, this is the financial sector and banks, so in order for banks to provide more resources, they need their own capital. Therefore, this profit, which we all like to talk about — "look how the profits of banks have grown" — will be used to ensure that banks give loans, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in the fall of 2024.
Thus, if the government's position does not change, the bill may receive a negative assessment.
What is the attitude towards the initiative in the State Duma
In anticipation of the discussions on the draft budget, the topic of finding additional funds is very relevant. So, in early September, LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky approached Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina with the idea of creating a single mechanism to redistribute banks' excess profits in favor of the budget system. He expressed the opinion that the country is going through difficult times, the state is counting every penny to fulfill its social obligations to citizens, and "bankers are fattening up at this time, redistributing excess profits among themselves."
The same position is held by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The party had previously proposed the idea of introducing such a tax, but it had not yet developed a bill, Communist Party member Alexei Kurinny told Izvestia.
— Of course, a tax on super profits and super-rich citizens is needed. We have already proposed this initiative before, so we treat it very positively," the parliamentarian said.
United Russia rather adheres to the position of the Ministry of Finance. In April 2025, Andrei Makarov, head of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, delivered a speech on myths about bank income in the State Duma.
— Despite the record profit of the banking sector, it is absolutely at the same level and corresponds to the levels that were from 2012 to 2024, that is, about 11%. The non—distributable part of the profit remains with the banks and goes as a source of capital formation for lending [to the economy]," the deputy said.
He also pointed out that a significant part of the banks belongs to the state, therefore, by proposing a new tax, the deputies essentially want to impose it on the state.
— If we transfer money from the left pocket to the right, for some reason, in principle, they will not be added, - said Makarov.
The New People Party was also skeptical about such an initiative. Sardana Avksentieva, the deputy head of the faction, called it a "populist but politically tempting tool" in a conversation with Izvestia.
— On the one hand, it appeals to a sense of fairness and allows you to quickly replenish the budget at the expense of the sector, which has really received significant benefits from the macroeconomic policy of the state. But believe me, the banking sector will find ways to minimize profit margins on paper, which will reduce the effect of innovation to almost zero," the parliamentarian believes.
She added that the deputies of the New People faction are also developing new sources of budget revenue, but all of them do not affect tax increases. Among them is the deepening of the policy on the legalization of mining and the whitewashing of migrants' incomes, as well as a well—thought-out policy on the sale of part of state property to small and medium-sized businesses.
How will the tax on excess profits of banks affect the economy
Technically, imposing a one-time tax on banks at a rate of 10% looks understandable, and at the same time we are talking about already closed periods in which the amount can be "calculated to a penny." that is, it is impossible to manipulate the database "retroactively," said Alexey Voylukov, MBA professor of business practice in digital Finance at the Presidential Academy. Banks will not be able to artificially lower the indicators to reduce the tax base, explained Ekaterina Golubtsova, Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
At the same time, Alexey Voylukov assessed the initiative itself critically. He explained that bank profits are sensitive to the exchange rate, quotes and reserves. For example, according to the Central Bank on September 17, the ruble was worth 82.83 per dollar — it has strengthened by almost 20% since the beginning of the year.
Izvestia sent a request to evaluate the deputies' initiative to the Bank of Russia, the Federal Tax Service, major banks and Associations of Banks of Russia.
According to Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, the initiative to introduce a 10% tax looks like a logical continuation of the government's policy of mobilizing additional revenue in the face of increased budget expenditures. This year, the treasury will be in short supply — the updated forecast for the year includes an amount of 3.8 trillion rubles. By the end of August, the shortfall amounted to almost 4.2 trillion.
According to the text of the bill, the proposed measure will bring an additional 200 billion rubles to the budget. Despite the fact that this is not such a large amount within the framework of the financial plan (the revenue part is expected to amount to 38.5 trillion in 2025), it can still be useful, said Alexey Voylukov. According to Ekaterina Golubtsova, the amount is able to cover about 5% of the budget deficit.
The tax on excess profits of large companies, introduced in 2023, was also not the dominant source of income, but it allowed to cover some of the costs, Igor Rastorguev said.
— At the same time, the reaction of the business was restrained — large companies fulfilled the requirements of the law, realizing its temporary and targeted nature. Such a step was important for the state at that time to ensure budget stability during a period of increased stress related to the geopolitical and economic situation," the expert explained.
He added: today's initiative pursues the same goal — to strengthen the revenue side of the budget without serious pressure on the real sector.
As Andrei Makarov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, announced on September 15, the government will submit a financial plan for the next three years to the lower house of parliament on September 29. However, problems may arise when drafting the document, independent expert Andrei Barkhota believes.
First of all, this is uncertainty about the prices of export goods, on which income from foreign trade depends. The second problem is related to a possible drop in company profits, which will lead to a decrease in tax revenues to the treasury. According to the economist, all this will increase the problem with the budget deficit.
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