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- More expensive for themselves: banks are reluctant to lower loan rates before the Central Bank meeting
More expensive for themselves: banks are reluctant to lower loan rates before the Central Bank meeting
In a month and a half, the average real rate on consumer loans from the top 10 banks dropped by only 0.5 percentage points to 34.5%, Izvestia found out. During this time, the Central Bank lowered its key rate from 20% to 18%. At the same time, market participants are actively adjusting deposit yields — they are already below 15%. Banks use the released profits to protect themselves from increased risks — the credit quality of customers is falling, and the risk of delays and defaults is gradually increasing. On September 12, the Central Bank may reduce the key rate to 16-17%. When loans will become more available — in the Izvestia article.
Why are banks slowly lowering their borrowing rates
Banks are not rushing to lower loan rates before the meeting on the key issue. In the month and a half since the Central Bank's last monetary policy decision on July 25, the average level of real loan rates at the top 10 banks has decreased by only 0.5 percentage points, to 34.5%. This follows from data from the websites of financial organizations that have studied Izvestia. The regulator will make its next rate decision on September 12.
Almost half of the top 10 banks have maintained the same conditions on their loans as they were before the rate cut from 20% to 18%, or worsened them, Izvestia found out. Only two market participants have lowered both the upper and lower ranges of the total cost of the loan. Other major players limited themselves to lowering the lower threshold for the full cost of loans.
The reluctance of banks to lend money more actively is due to increased risks in the system, explained Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency. The quality of the loan portfolio has noticeably decreased and continues to deteriorate — loans issued earlier were more profitable for banks than new ones, explained economist Andrei Barkhota.
By the end of July, the share of loan approvals was only 21.4%, which means that only one in five applications is granted, according to data from the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI). Banks are tightening their risk policy in response to an increase in overdue loans issued earlier, the Central Bank's press service explained earlier. In the second quarter of 2025, the level of delinquency of Russians on mortgages and car loans increased almost twice compared to the same period last year, Izvestia wrote earlier.
The upper limit of the UCS range for the top 10 players has increased on average to 43.5%. This directly indicates the desire of banks to compensate for the risks of less reliable clients with the help of higher rates, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Over the past month and a half, the key rate has decreased by 2 percentage points, while real loan rates have dropped by only 0.5 percentage points, which means that banks are trying to use some of the space they have gained to cover risks and service long—overdue loans.
At the same time, deposit rates for periods from three to 12 months have already dropped to 14.6%, according to data from the Finuslugi marketplace. At the beginning of the year, according to Izvestia's calculations, they were close to 21%.
Deposit yields traditionally react faster to changes in key interest rates than credit rates, the Expert RA rating agency noted. Banks cannot immediately adjust the terms of loans: they continue to work with already attracted deposits at a higher price, explained Vladimir Chernov. Until such funds are replaced with new, cheaper deposits, financial institutions are unable to offer loans at reduced rates.
What will be the key rate in September 2025
The market has already included in the value of securities a potential decrease in the key value by 2 percentage points, to 16%, said Andrey Vanin, head of the investment advisory department for clients of Gazprombank Investments service. In general, investors are positive about the prospects for the future meeting of the Central Bank, because inflation is slowing down and the economy is cooling faster than the regulator had planned. The Bank of Russia cannot ignore these factors.
However, more cautious steps are also possible. For example, Finam assumes that the key rate may drop to 16.5%. Such a decision would help give the economy more resources for growth, but would preserve the rigidity of monetary conditions for an even more confident reduction in inflation.
At the same time, most experts expect a reduction of only 17%. According to Natalia Pyryeva, a leading analyst at Cifra Broker, inflation is declining due to a pronounced seasonal factor - prices for fruit and vegetable products are falling, which eventually distorts all statistics. Prices for non—food products could already go up against the background of the weakening of the national currency - this week the dollar broke through the 85 ruble mark for the first time since April.
A more cautious reduction in the key rate seems justified for a number of reasons, explained Natalia Vashchelyuk, senior analyst at the First Management Company. The population and businesses continue to expect prices to rise, and this in itself pushes up inflation. If consumer demand starts to grow too fast, prices may accelerate even more.
In addition, incomes and salaries in the country are growing, Natalia Vashchelyuk recalled. Today, many families keep their savings at a high level, and this is due to a weak interest in loans. In other words, people save more because they borrow little from banks. But if lending revives, some of these savings will go into consumption, and household spending will rise sharply. This will give an additional boost to the acceleration of inflation.
The uncertainty is also related to fiscal policy. In January–August 2025, federal spending increased by 21% compared to last year. In order to meet the plan, spending in the remaining months should be significantly lower than a year ago. But if the authorities decide not to cut costs, this will lead to an additional influx of money into the economy, increased demand and, as a result, higher inflation.
If the Central Bank lowers the key rate, deposit rates may fall by another 1-1.5 percentage points over a three-week horizon, which will create an opportunity for further reduction in loan costs, Andrei Barkhota noted. In any case, the stabilization of the regulator's policy and cheaper financing will make lending more accessible.
Nevertheless, according to the expert, until next year, banks will still adhere to a conservative risk policy - working mainly with trusted and reliable clients with fairly high incomes and low debt burden.
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