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- Send at a rate: a high key rate will slow down GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points this year
Send at a rate: a high key rate will slow down GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points this year
A high key rate will slow down the growth of gross domestic product by 1.5 percentage points, follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. Now the Central Bank is gradually reducing the rate, but it has been at a record level for more than six months. Declining investments, declining production, ruble volatility, and sanctions also have a significant impact. Due to this, economic growth this year will be about 1.5%, although last year it was almost three times higher. What will be able to support GDP growth in 2025 is in the Izvestia article.
Russian economic growth in 2025: forecast
By the end of 2025, the Russian economy will grow by 1.5%, according to experts from universities and brokerage companies interviewed by Izvestia. For comparison, last year's GDP increased by 4.3%.
The main reason for the slowdown is the high key. From October 2024 to June 2025, the regulator kept it at a record high of 21% per annum — in early summer, the Central Bank lowered it for the first time in three years, by 1 percentage point. At the last meeting on September 12, the Bank of Russia set it at 17%.
"In the second quarter, GDP dynamics was slightly lower than our estimates. And in general, we are still moving closer to the lower limit of the output forecast for this year. At the same time, sectors related to domestic demand continued to grow. While others, focused on external demand, were rather declining. This is a consequence of both the deterioration of the price environment in international commodity markets and the restriction of Russian producers' access to parts of global markets," Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a conference on key issues.
She stressed that the Russian economy will slow down in the next two years, but it will still be growing. Its acceleration is expected no earlier than 2027, the head of the Central Bank added.
A high key rate this year can slow down GDP growth by an average of 1.5 percentage points, experts interviewed by Izvestia estimated. Mainly through the restriction of investments and lending, it "eats up" about 0.7–1.6 percentage points, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
As noted by economist Andrey Barkhota, if the Central Bank's rate remains at a high level for about six months, the economy may slow down by about 0.5 percentage points as a result, and if tight monetary policy persists throughout the year, the indicator may drop even more — to 2 percentage points.
If the rate had not been lowered in June, there could even have been a recession of 1-2% by the end of the year, Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, believes.
What will slow down the economy by the end of 2025
In addition to the high rate, a decline in investment activity may make a negative contribution to economic growth in the coming quarters, experts from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (INP) believe RAS in its "Short-term analysis of GDP dynamics: September 2025". Thus, according to the results of the second quarter of 2025, the increase in the physical volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 1.5% compared to 8.7% in January–March.
Izvestia sent a request to INP RAS about whether the decline in investment can now be called one of the key risks.
According to World Bank estimates, investments account for about 20% of Russia's GDP — their slowdown means a loss of about 1.5 percentage points of growth, said Andrey Chelyuskin, associate professor at the ION Presidential Academy. Without this recession, the economy could have shown noticeably higher dynamics in 2025, he added.
In addition, according to the material of INP RAS, problems in the industrial sectors are getting worse — production is declining, financial indicators are deteriorating. Manufacturing output increased by only 1.5% in July, the lowest since February 2023. A significant decline is also observed in the production of investment products and consumer goods.
The sanctions will also negatively affect GDP growth this year, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Restrictions, uncertainty and export losses add about 0.8–1.6 percentage points to the slowdown process, Vladimir Chernov believes. However, according to Yulia Kovalenko, associate professor of the Basic Department of Financial Control, Analysis and Audit of the Main Control Department of the City of Moscow, Deputy Head of the Higher School of Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, the damage is less significant because the Russian economy has adapted to the imposition of sanctions in recent years.
The volatility of the ruble exchange rate is also becoming an important risk factor — since the beginning of the year, the national currency has strengthened by almost 20%. In recent days, it has weakened to 87 per dollar on Forex, but after the decision on the key issue on September 12, it immediately strengthened by 3 rubles, to 81.
At the same time, the budget sets the average dollar exchange rate for the year at 94.3 rubles. According to economist Andrey Barkhota, a strong ruble for 6-9 months can slow down the economy by about 0.5 percentage points.
What will accelerate Russia's GDP this year
Nevertheless, GDP will still grow this year, having already increased by 1.2% by the end of the first half of the year. According to the experts of INP RAS, maintaining a high level of employment and continuing wage growth will have a positive impact on the economy. In July 2025, the number of people aged 15 and over was 75 million (+0.6 million compared to last year), which is the highest value in the entire history of observations.
As Izvestia reported earlier, in June the average nominal salary reached 103 thousand rubles, which is 15% more than at the beginning of 2024.
In addition, there is now a revival in mortgage and car loans (this helps the development of the economy), the authors of the RAS study note.
Izvestia asked the Ministry of Energy what would support and slow down the economy this year.
Andrey Chelyuskin from the Presidential Academy believes that the main drivers of growth in the near future will be related to consumer demand, and not to investments or infrastructure. Also, according to Yulia Kovalenko from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, one should not forget about scientific and technological inventions that can also give an impetus to the development of the economy. It is important to use modern technologies in production to reduce costs.
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