Why a truce in the Middle East is important to Trump. Analysis
The truce between Iran and Israel, announced in the United States, came into force on June 24, despite violations of the ceasefire by both states. Washington did not respond to the strikes on its military bases and instead aimed to end the conflict. Why the United States is interested in the early advent of peace in the Middle East — in the analysis of Izvestia
US attacks and Iran's reaction
• After the attacks on American bases, Trump announced a truce between Iran and Israel, which came into force on June 24, but the parties managed to violate it several times. Trump made an extremely emotional comment to reporters about the violation of the ceasefire regime by the countries, which once again shows how strongly the United States is interested in resolving the conflict.
• The Israeli Foreign Ministry was unhappy with Trump's decision to hold peace talks instead of war until Iran's unconditional surrender, noting that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving a "wounded lion" alive. According to the Foreign Ministry, a truce while preserving the Iranian ruling regime, which does not intend to change its policy regarding uranium enrichment and support for radical movements, may lead to a new war in the region in two to three years.
Results of the 12-day war
• Trump failed to win a resounding victory in the Middle East, although this does not prevent him from continuing to proclaim it. After the failure to resolve the conflict between Israel and Gaza, which could not be fully extinguished, but was sidelined, Trump again tried to act as a peacemaker: on June 24, he announced an "eternal" truce between Iran and Israel. Shortly after the start of the truce, Israel announced violations by Iran and continued to strike at Iranian territory.
Earlier, US peace efforts to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran were thwarted by its main ally, Israel, which unleashed the Iran-Israel war on the eve of the sixth round of negotiations. The second version of these events is a double game by the American president, who, while negotiating with Tehran, could have known about the planned Israeli operation. Anyway, the situation for the United States and Israel is now worse than before the start of the 12-day war: the Iranian nuclear program, according to American intelligence leaked to the media, has been set back by just a few months, not years; the stockpile of enriched uranium has been preserved; Iran has suspended cooperation with the IAEA and has been given the opportunity to continue developing without the supervision of international organizations. Tel Aviv, in turn, said that despite the ceasefire, the operation in Iran would continue. However, Trump continues to claim that these data are not true.
• Analysts do not rule out that this situation may lead to an aggravation of relations between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who in 2020 was one of the first to congratulate former US President Joe Biden on his victory in the election race with Trump. In addition, the United States intends to cut costs for conflicts outside the country. Americans have been dissatisfied with Netanyahu's policy since 2023, when Israel launched massive strikes on Gaza with many civilian casualties. After violating the truce, Trump attacked Netanyahu with unexpectedly harsh criticism, which came as a shock to Israel.
• At the same time, the expert community notes Israel's withdrawal from American control. The Jewish state is a stronghold of American interests in the region, and a significant part of Israeli weapons is provided by the United States (we wrote more about what Iran and Israel are fighting with here). At the same time, Tel Aviv is ambitious and is trying to pursue an independent foreign policy. In fact, for the United States, stability in the Middle East will largely be based on the "obedience" of an ally, and it is precisely its absence that annoys the head of the White House. However, if you believe the press, then the expressive expressions of Donald Trump had an effect and Israel suspended attacks on Iran.
The situation inside the United States
• The US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities has led to a mixed reaction in American society. Some believe that attacking the nuclear infrastructure was the right decision, since Iran's acquisition of its own nuclear weapons is unprofitable for anyone. Others doubt that serious damage was inflicted on the facilities, and in this case the attacks could lead to the worst—case scenario - accelerated production of nuclear weapons and the perception of US strikes as an existential threat and distrust of the proposed conflict resolution mechanism. In this case, the truce will not last long. The most notorious opponents of Trump's policies even tried to hold a vote in Congress on impeachment because of the strikes, but it did not find majority support.
• The approval rating of Trump's foreign policy after the US strikes on Iran plummeted from 39% to 35%. According to a Reuters poll, the majority of Americans disapprove of US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities: only 36% of respondents supported them, while 45% opposed them. 84% of Americans are concerned about the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
• The expert community agrees that one of the goals of the US strike on Iran could be an attempt to quickly turn the tide of the conflict and remove the Middle East from the American agenda. This can help settle differences within the United States, where support for Israel is rapidly declining, and bring public attention back to the US government's measures to deport illegal migrants, which were allowed to resume by the US Supreme Court. Trump's migration policy can save his falling rating, as it remains popular with voters.
In the United States, Trump's opponents from the Democratic Party are trying to use the Iran-Israel conflict to weaken the Republican position in the upcoming elections. But after thousands of "No Kings" rallies against Trump's policies, mass demonstrations against Trump's migration policy and rallies in defense of Palestine, demonstrations in support of Iran on June 21 and 22 looked much more modest and gathered only "dozens and hundreds" of participants.
• Amid Iran's threat to activate terrorist "sleeper cells" on American territory, patrols have been stepped up in synagogues, Jewish and Muslim areas of the United States. According to a study by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), a record number of threats on social media were registered on June 13, the day after the Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The nature of the messages has changed from threats on social media to calls for mass violence and genocide of Israelis and Jews.
US Goals
• The US attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities were carried out in order to push the warring parties to negotiate. By doing so, the United States eliminated the main cause of the conflict — the possibility of Iran creating its own nuclear weapons. In addition, the show of force was supposed to force Tehran to agree to a nuclear deal on Washington's terms. According to political analysts, the change of the ruling regime in Iran was not initially considered as the goal of the operation by either the United States or Israel.
• Tehran's response was not harsh, as expected. Iran, in principle, reacts very cautiously to strikes on its territory: in particular, the reaction to the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020 was similar — the shelling of American military bases without any damage to the US military. The attacks were needed only so that the Iranian leadership could "save face" in the current situation and not leave the American strikes unpunished.
• The United States is losing money on the Iran-Israel conflict and is interested in ending it. It's not just about the cost of waging war and wasting weapons, but also about rising oil prices, which have reached a five—month high amid the danger of closing the Strait of Hormuz, an important maritime corridor for international trade. Prolonged destabilization in the region could lead to an increase in the cost of oil above $100 per barrel, and the continuation of such a situation could negatively affect the state of the American budget and the global economy. After Trump's announcement of a truce, oil prices fell by more than 7%.
• Trump continues to insist on observing the terms of the truce and on his significant role in achieving it. It is extremely important for the president to strengthen his image as a peacemaker in the minds of Americans, as this will free his hands for many controversial steps and strengthen his mandate. In the meantime, the third attempt to resolve the military conflict looks like a failure. The "peace in Ukraine in 24 hours" did not happen, it was not possible to quickly and simply solve the problem of the Gaza Strip, and therefore it is now especially important to bring the Iranian-Israeli truce to a stable state. Otherwise, the question will arise in the world community whether the power of the US president is really that great.
During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:
- Alexey Martynov, political scientist, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation;
- Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak, an American political scientist and publicist;
- American political scientist Malek Dudakov;
- the American political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky
- analyst, publicist Ivan Danilov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
