How the United States participates in events in the Middle East. Analysis

Israeli strikes on Iranian territory on June 13, ahead of the next round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear deal, raised the question of whether the American side was involved in the preparation of the attacks. The United States acknowledged that it was aware of the impending strikes, but tried to distance itself from the conflict. Whether Washington could have participated in the strikes on Iran and what goals it pursues in the Middle East is discussed in Izvestia.

U.S. interests in the Middle East

• The United States was interested in having a presence in the Middle East for several reasons, and one of the most important was access to hydrocarbons. Half of the world's explored oil and gas reserves are concentrated in the countries of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq are among the leading exporters. Opponents of the policy of George W. Bush, who was President of the United States at that time, called control of oil fields the goal of the invasion of Iraq by American troops in 2003.

• If until the end of the 20th century the goal of the United States was to maintain stability in the Middle East and promote its interests in the region, then after the terrorist attack on the American World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, Washington began to pay attention to Islamist and nationalist movements in the region. Incursions by American forces to change the ruling regime took place during military campaigns in Afghanistan (2001-2014), Iran (2003-2008), Libya (2011), Syria and Iraq (2014-2018).

Shock shock: the effects of the Iran-Israel war on the economy

In case of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may exceed $100

• Israel and Saudi Arabia remain the main allies of the United States in the Middle East. Washington primarily has an economic partnership with Riyadh - Saudi Arabia was not only the main supplier of crude oil to the United States, but also acted as a major market for American weapons. In 1974-2023, the two countries had an agreement on economic cooperation and military support under the oil-for-security formula: Saudi Arabia sold oil exclusively for dollars.

• Israel and the United States have not only an economic and military partnership, but also a social, religious and ideological aspect: the American Evangelical Church has strong ties with Israel. Evangelicals represent a significant part of the electorate, primarily for the Republican Party, whose representative is the current US President Donald Trump.

The role of the United States in the situation in Iran

At the time of the Israeli strikes on Iran, Washington and Tehran were preparing for the sixth round of negotiations on a nuclear deal. The parties failed to reach an agreement because the United States offered tougher terms for the deal, and Iran insisted on easing sanctions in exchange for curtailing its nuclear program (we discussed more about the nuclear deal here). Nevertheless, Washington has spoken of its commitment to a "diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue."

Iran's revenge: Iran is ready to continue military operation against Israel

What could be Tehran's next step and is a direct conflict with the United States possible?

• After the Israeli attacks, the United States stated that it was not involved in the strikes on Iran, but was aware of the impending strikes. Washington invited Iran to sign the deal because further attacks on Tel Aviv would be "even more violent." But the Israeli military operation actually disrupted negotiations between Tehran and Washington: after the strikes, Iran announced its withdrawal from the negotiation process. The United States acknowledged that all participants in the negotiations on the Iranian side were killed as a result of Israeli strikes.

• Analysts have noted that this is not the first time that Israel has carried out attacks on the territory of other countries, regardless of the opinion of the United States, but this is the first time that Washington has taken a detached position and denied its involvement in the conflict — although it helped Israel shoot down Iranian missiles. The new war in the Middle East contradicts the election promises of the US President, Republican Donald Trump, who intended to put an end to the conflicts started by the former White House administration.

• Within the United States, the level of support for Israel is falling among the population, which is tired of conflicts, and the Democrats intend to use the Iran-Israel war to discredit Trump during the election campaign before the congressional elections. A split is also possible within the Republican Party, as some of its members are already outraged by Israel's role in disrupting the negotiations and have stated that Tel Aviv is trying to draw the United States into another Middle East conflict.

An eye for an eye: Iran responded to the Israeli attack

Tehran and West Jerusalem have once again stopped a step away from a major war

• The American Navy participated in repelling retaliatory strikes against Israel. In addition, according to Iranian press reports, 24 hours before the strike, American tanker tankers were operating near the Iranian border, which could be used to refuel Israeli fighter jets. Britain and France also announced their assistance to Israel in repelling the attacks. Tehran has said it will consider the ships and military bases of countries helping Tel Aviv to be legitimate military targets.

Market reaction

• Israel's strikes on Iran affected oil prices — the cost of fuel began to rise. By the morning of June 13, crude oil had risen in price by 13%, and by the close of stock markets on the same day, the price was about $74 per barrel: the increase in value was 8%. Against the background of the worsening situation, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict a possible jump in oil prices above $100 in the worst-case scenario.

• A negative scenario includes Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for oil transportation: Tehran has already stated that it is considering such a possibility. In this case, the effect will spread to the entire global economy, since blocking Iranian oil will deprive markets of 1.5 million barrels per day, which will take years to compensate. This situation may even be beneficial for Russia, as the cost of Russian oil and demand for it will increase against the background of shortages.

• The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz could be a serious blow to the United States. Blocking shipping will not only lead to higher oil prices, but also, coupled with new duties, undermine the Trump administration's attempts to curb inflation in the country. Meanwhile, the closure of the strait may hinder Washington's strategic goals, since the US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, so analysts rule out blocking it for a long period.

When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• American political scientist Malek Dudakov;
• Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;
• the Americanist Roman Romanov.