Iran's revenge: Iran is ready to continue military operation against Israel

Iran has shown that it is ready to conduct military operations at the same level as Israel, the interviewed experts told Izvestia. On the night of June 14, Tehran carried out four large-scale missile attacks in response to Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's permanent representative to the UN called Israel's actions "tantamount to a declaration of war." At the same time, the United States, predictably, supported the Jewish state. The American armed forces helped him repel the Iranian retaliatory strike. It remains unclear whether the talks between Washington and Tehran on the Iranian nuclear program, scheduled for June 15 in Oman, will take place. The Iranian leadership is no longer ready to negotiate with the United States after the Israeli strikes, analysts say. The media also reports that Iran may now launch attacks on American bases in the Middle East. The prospects of the Iranian-Israeli conflict and the participation of the United States in it are described in the Izvestia article.

Iran's military response to the Israeli attack

Iran has reacted decisively to Israeli attacks on its nuclear and military facilities, as well as the assassinations of senior commanders. On the night of June 14, the Jewish state was subjected to four large-scale waves of rocket attacks. The cities of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Beersheba, Gush Dan, and Rishon Lezion were hit.

The new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), General Ahmad Vahidi, said that Tehran had struck more than 150 targets, including air bases housing F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighter jets, tankers and transport aircraft, as well as control and electronic warfare centers located at these bases. Tehran has also attacked military centers and military-industrial facilities that were used by the Israeli army to produce rockets, military equipment and weapons.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims that dozens of ballistic missiles hit the intended targets. According to the Iranian IRNA news agency, rockets hit the buildings of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of National Security in Tel Aviv. Interestingly, according to IRNA, during the retaliatory attack, Tehran used ballistic missiles from submarines for the first time.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that some of the rockets had not been intercepted. The basis of Israel's missile defense system consists of the Hetz long-range interception ammunition, the American THAAD missile defense system, as well as the David's Sling and Iron Dome short-range missile defense systems.

—To counter the medium—range missiles used by Iran, the Hetz and the THAAD complex are best suited — they were also used in attacks by the Yemeni Houthis," Dmitry Kornev, editor of the Military Russia online project, told Izvestia. — They are designed for long-range atmospheric interception and can shoot down a number of ballistic missiles.

The problem is that it is impossible to ensure the defeat of all attacking ammunition, the expert notes. At least because a maneuvering hypersonic missile is an extremely difficult target even for technically advanced missile defense systems.

— A large number of failures leads to overspending of extremely expensive anti—missiles, - explains Dmitry Kornev. — The algorithm of the PRO action is simple. Long-range ammunition strikes what it can destroy, and short-range missile defense systems "Iron Dome" and "David's Sling" are working on targets that break through. Their effectiveness against Iranian ballistic munitions is lower than that of long-range systems, but due to their massive use, they can and do shoot down a number of missiles.

As for the Iron Dome, this system was created by Israel to protect against unguided ballistic missiles, which have been used by Palestinian militants to shell the territory of the Jewish state since the 2000s. First of all, against ammunition such as Kassam, Grad and the like.

"These are not very accurate missiles, which do not have great military effectiveness, but they can cause quite serious damage to civilian unprotected objects and are mainly used as a weapon of terror by various militant groups,— Dmitry Kornev said.

By the way, the IDF announced "large-scale destruction" due to Iran's attacks, while the number of victims turned out to be insignificant. As a result of Iran's retaliatory measures, at least 4 people were killed and at least 70 injured, The Jerusalem Post newspaper reported, citing an ambulance service. For comparison, more than 70 people became victims of the Israeli attack on Iran on June 13, and more than 300 were injured.

Iran's position in the conflict with Israel

On the evening of June 13, an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council was held in New York. Russia condemned Israel's actions, noting that they violate international law, and its military adventures are pushing the region to the brink of a major war.

"The responsibility for all the consequences of these actions lies entirely with the Israeli leadership and those who encourage it," said Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya.

Iran's Permanent Representative to the world Organization, Amir Saeed Iravani, called Israel's attacks against Iran "an act of state terrorism."

"We will not forget that our people died as a result of Israeli attacks using American weapons. These actions are tantamount to a declaration of war," he said.

As Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in a televised address to the nation, the Israeli leadership has unleashed a war against Iran, and the Islamic Republic will not let it remain unscathed. IRGC Chief Ahmad Vahidi stressed that the Iranian retaliatory military operation, dubbed "True Promise – 3," will continue as long as necessary.

— The Iranian response, at first glance, did not go beyond the scope of retaliatory operations typical of the country. The launch of missiles and drones had previously been recorded as part of the "True Promise" operations, orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. — On the other hand, Iran responded symmetrically to Israeli aggression by attacking the nuclear center in Dimona, a key facility of the Israeli nuclear program. And although it did not seem to be possible to cause serious damage to the complex, Tehran has shown that it is ready to conduct operations at the same level as Tel Aviv.

In general, the exchanges of blows continue. On the night of June 14, information appeared that Israel had attacked the city of Hamadan, the administrative center of the province of the same name in western Iran. The Iranian Nozheh military base is located in the province, which was already subjected to Israeli strikes on Friday. Also, Al Mayadeen TV channel reported a powerful explosion in the city of Isfahan, where one of Iran's nuclear facilities is located. Tasnim news agency reported explosions in the Hakimiya and Teheranpars districts east of Tehran.

"Comparing the damage suffered by both sides, so far it looks like a tactical victory for Israel, but if the missile strikes from Iran continue, Israel may be shaken strategically," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

Prospects for a direct clash between Iran and the United States

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday recorded a video message to the people of Iran, in which he stated that his country does not consider Iranians to be enemies, and invited them to rebel against the authorities of the Islamic republic. The Israeli leader himself, according to CNN, was in a shelter during the shelling, where he assessed the situation after Iran's retaliatory strikes.

The main objective of Israel's Operation Lion Rising is Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile production plants, and other Iranian military capabilities. On the night of June 13, Israeli Air Force aircraft struck more than 100 targets on Iranian territory. In particular, the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz was hit, which provoked sharp criticism from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) due to fears of radiation leaks. The IDF said it attacked facilities in Iran as Tehran approached the "point of no return" in developing nuclear weapons.

In the conflict with Iran, Israel enjoys the military support of the United States. American ground-based air defense systems helped Israel shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles. The Associated Press reports that Washington is deploying military forces, including ships, to the Middle East. Thus, the destroyer Thomas Hudner was relocated from the western part of the Mediterranean Sea to the eastern one. Another destroyer is moving into the area in readiness to act on orders from the White House.

The 6th round of talks between the United States and Iran on its nuclear program is still scheduled for June 15 in Oman. Formally, it has not yet been canceled, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic noted that after the Israeli attack, negotiations became meaningless. By the way, US President Donald Trump, in a conversation with CNN, said that representatives of Iran who participated in negotiations with the United States on the nuclear deal were killed as a result of an Israeli military operation.

"I think that the Iranian leadership is not ready for negotiations right now," Murad Sadigzade, president of the Center for Middle East Studies and a visiting lecturer at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. — There will probably be a suspension of the diplomatic settlement, and there is a risk that the current confrontation may descend into an armed conflict between the two countries, which will flare up periodically. Israel will be supported by Western countries, the United States, and possibly some regional players who will oppose Iran. But Tehran still has the opportunity to return to negotiations.

The expert stressed that for the first time Iran decided to give not a symbolic, but a real military response to Israel, declaring itself as a powerful state in the Middle East. Tehran said that the Iranian armed forces will continue the operation against Israel. According to the Mehr news agency, Iran has told France, Britain and the United States that if Israel helps, their facilities in the Middle East will become a target for attacks. In addition, Iran may attack the ships of these countries if they support Israel. Iran's Fars news agency reports that the next target will be U.S. bases in the Middle East. According to the agency's interlocutor, the confrontation between the parties "will not end with yesterday's limited actions," and Iran's attacks will be carried out in the coming days.

—Reports of a possible Iranian attack on American military bases in the Middle East will mark a qualitatively new level of escalation, at which Tehran is ready to resort to forceful pressure not only against Israel, but also the United States," Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics and a visiting lecturer at the RANEPA ION under the President of Russia, told Izvestia. — A direct attack on American facilities is a step that Iran leaves as a last resort when diplomatic and asymmetric tools are exhausted and the development of the conflict takes on an irreversible trajectory of full—scale war.

The analyst emphasizes that Iran's military potential is very impressive: Tehran has a wide arsenal of intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles sufficient to hit targets in Iraq, Syria, the Persian Gulf coast and even in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, Iran has made significant progress in the field of unmanned systems, including attack drones that have been successfully tested in the Syrian and Yemeni territories.

The Iranian military doctrine relies heavily on the concept of deterrence through an asymmetric threat. Attacks on American bases, if they occur, will be part of a carefully calibrated strategy aimed not so much at a direct military defeat of the United States as at undermining its regional position and forcing it to retreat, Farhad Ibragimov believes.