An eye for an eye: Iran responded to the Israeli attack

On Friday evening, June 13, Iran fired more than 150 ballistic missiles at Israel. The attack was a promised response to Israel's Operation Rising Lion, which killed high-ranking military and scientists in Tehran, as well as damaged the nuclear infrastructure. Iran's permanent representative to the UN called Israel's aggression a declaration of war. Israel, in turn, attacked Iran again on Saturday night. The details of the confrontation and its possible consequences can be found in the Izvestia article.

The shelling of Israel on June 13, 2025: what is happening

On Friday evening, June 13, Iran fired about 150-200 ballistic missiles at Israel in two waves, and the third wave of attacks continues. The Iranian IRNA news agency clarifies that Iran has used submarine-launched ballistic missiles for the first time in combat. AXIOS claims that the United States helped Israel intercept some of the Iranian missiles.

According to media reports, the retaliatory strike twice hit the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Defense. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in turn, claims that the strikes hit missile production centers, as well as Israeli military industry facilities.

Explosions were heard in the Iranian capital after the attack on Tel Aviv, and air defense is working. Israel announced a night attack on the Iranian Air Force bases Hamdam and Tabriz and the destruction of air defense facilities. Tasnim news agency reports that Iran has already shot down eight Israeli planes. There is also talk about a captured female pilot who was flying one of the planes.

Meanwhile, journalist Emmanuel Fabian reported that 21 people were injured in the Iranian attack in Tel Aviv. According to him, one person is in serious condition, two are in moderate condition, and the rest are in mild condition. Residents of Israel are waiting out the attacks in bomb shelters, and the IDF on its social media page called for "not to be silent" about what is happening, without mentioning, however, the reasons for the retaliatory attack.

On Friday morning, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran and declared a state of emergency. According to the Fars news agency, as a result of the Israeli attacks, at least 78 people were killed and another 329 injured, including high-ranking military personnel, scientists and children.

In this regard, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the purpose of the military operation is to attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure and that "the war will be long."

Later, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian stressed that Israel would receive an "appropriate response" for the strikes, which violate international rules.

Emergency meeting of the UN Security Council

The UN Security Council is holding an emergency meeting on the situation, which was requested by Iran. During the meeting, Iran's permanent representative to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravani, called Israel's aggression a declaration of war and accused the United States of helping Israel shoot down missiles.

"These [Israeli] atrocities constitute a clear act of state terrorism and a blatant violation of international law," Iravani said during a meeting of the UN Security Council.

Russia's permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, said during a meeting of the UN Security Council that Israel's military attacks on Iran are pushing the Middle East region towards a nuclear catastrophe.

According to him, reports about the radiological consequences of the Israeli attack are particularly alarming.

However, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Dorothy Shi called Israel's actions "self-defense" and accused Iran of terror, adding that "a dangerous regime cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons."

According to her, the United States will continue to strive for a diplomatic settlement that would ensure that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons and would not be a threat to peace and stability in the Middle East. At this stage, it would be wise for the Iranian leadership to act through negotiations.

What will happen next?

Experts identify several options for the further development of events.

Option 1: Repeat of 2024

The traditional plot of the Iran-Israel confrontation is an exchange of blows, in which each subsequent round is more like an act of information warfare than causing real damage to each other. In April 2024, after the IDF attacked the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, the Islamic Republic launched a combined strike against various targets on enemy territory. And although the damage suffered by Israel was insignificant, the world community saw firsthand how Iranian missiles can overcome the famous Iron Dome air defense system.

Then, after the counterattack by Tehran, there was a certain lull, accompanied by separate attacks and diversions that were not comparable in scale to the first round of the missile duel, recalls Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Medical Sciences.

"This scenario is favored, first of all, by the limited resources of both sides of the conflict and their disinterest in expanding the conflict to uncontrollable limits," the expert notes.

Option 2: Escalation

Meanwhile, the perfect exchange of blows differs from the previous one by a much more specific choice of targets, mainly from Iran. This time, as military analysts around the world acknowledge, the Islamic Republic's response in this regard was not only much more extensive, but also calibrated, and in some cases even symmetrical. In addition, according to unconfirmed information, one of the targets of the Iranian missiles was the nuclear center in Dimona, as well as the Ministry of Defense building in the government quarter of Tel Aviv.

Actually, the parties' focus on each other's nuclear facilities will become one of the factors of potential escalation, Grigory Lukyanov emphasizes.

"This could lead to the destruction of such facilities and the contamination of territories, which would turn the conflict into a threat on a regional and global scale — both Iran and Israel have enough nuclear materials for the potential development of this scenario,— admits Izvestia's interlocutor.

Option 3: Mediation

In the context of the settlement or freezing of the Iranian-Israeli confrontation in recent years, one way or another, a third force has figured. Prior to the current escalation, it was the United States, which was in the negotiation process with Tehran regarding its nuclear program at the time of the Israeli strike. This was pointed out by the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Araqchi, however, according to him, the Israeli strikes forced Tehran to "abandon the path of diplomacy."

In addition, Washington has openly asked Moscow for help in resolving the issue – this topic was discussed twice during telephone conversations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

Now, after Russia and the United States expressed opposing views on the escalation at a meeting of the UN Security Council, cooperation looks like a much more difficult task, because it will require a solidary approach from all members of the UN Security Council.

In this sense, it is very significant that both Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had telephone conversations with the Russian head of state even before the retaliatory Iranian strike.

According to Grigory Lukyanov, it was Tehran's willingness to make the most of the negotiation mechanisms that became one of the main reasons for the escalation undertaken by Israel.

— Despite the ambivalence of the White House's positions, despite the lack of progress, Iran tried to delay the negotiations to the maximum and thereby reduce the volume of American aid to West Jerusalem in the medium and long term. At this moment, the situation was unique for the Netanyahu government, the best moment to attack against the background of the West's gradually decreasing willingness to help the Israelis due to the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and the ambiguous position of the White House, the expert concludes.

At the same time, West Jerusalem is closely monitoring the development of the Iranian nuclear program, which, after the destruction of the infrastructure of the "axis of resistance" in Syria, remained Tehran's only chance to guarantee its security. In addition, last year's exchange of blows showed the obvious progress of Iran's missile program. As Grigory Lukyanov notes, Israel could not afford to delay in this context either.

Is the world in danger of a major war between Israel and Iran? Analysis

Potential difference

Probably, the main factor in the readiness of Iran and Israel to further develop an open armed confrontation due to the lack of land borders will be the availability of appropriate military capabilities. However, as noted by military observer Andrei Soyustov, the volume of ready-to-use arsenals is covered by the "fog of war." The expert notes: given the unequivocal success of the Israeli army in eliminating the Iranian military leadership, the real damage caused by its strikes is not obvious.

— Before the first strike, Israel managed to disorganize and almost completely turn off the Iranian air defense system: command posts, radars, and air defense systems. Then a massive air strike began on Iran's "decision—making centers" with the destruction of senior command personnel, air defense facilities, ballistic missile positions/storages and attack UAVs, as well as the ground infrastructure of the facilities of the Iranian nuclear program, the expert notes.

At the same time, Andrei Soyustov states, some Iranian facilities are so buried that it is problematic to cause critical damage to them with something other than an atomic explosion. And the Israelis' defeat of ground targets is also not clear.

— In some cases, in the video, an Iranian mobile missile system hit by the IDF looks like a decommissioned product. In addition, in the afternoon (June 13. – Ed.) the Iranian air defense began to "come to life", and the Israeli strikes ceased to be a "one-way game", and then Iran also fired ballistic missiles at Israeli territory. This also hints at the fact that serious damage has been inflicted on Tehran's military potential, but by no means fatal," the source said.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Israeli strikes on Iran could backfire and not only hinder the implementation of the nuclear deal, but also accelerate Iran's development of nuclear weapons. Tehran can take a simpler path and create, if not a full-fledged nuclear weapon, then at least a dirty bomb.

At the same time, the current conflict between Israel and Iran is significantly different from the situation last year. The attacks initiated by the Netanyahu government are much more like an act of war in content, but in the event of a large-scale escalation and an exchange of attrition strikes, Iran's chances of winning are higher even though it has few allies in the region.