Is the world in danger of a major war between Israel and Iran? Analysis
Israel launched a military operation against Iran in the midst of negotiations on a nuclear deal, attacking military and nuclear facilities on the night of June 13. As a result of the strikes, 78 people were killed and 329 injured. Why the attacks took place right now and whether the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate into a full—scale war is discussed in Izvestia.
The beginning of hostilities
• On June 13, at about 3 a.m. Moscow time, Israel attacked nuclear facilities in Iran as part of Operation Rising Lion. Tel Aviv said the operation would take place within a few days and called the attacks a "preemptive strike" that would eliminate facilities on Iranian territory that pose a threat to Israel's existence.
• More than 200 Israeli fighter jets were involved in the operation, which used about 330 rounds of ammunition against more than 100 targets throughout Iran within a few hours. The targets of the attacks were the air defense system in western Iran, dozens of radar installations and surface-to-air missile batteries, as well as nuclear facilities.
• Iran stated that 60 targets were attacked in eight Iranian provinces. The press reported damage to residential buildings in Iran. In the capital alone, five people became victims of the strikes, and 20 more victims were rescued from the damaged building. According to the Iranian side, at least 20 high—ranking military and nuclear physicists, who were probably the targets of the attacks, as well as ordinary civilians, were among the dead.
• According to the Israeli side, as a result of the strikes, the key facility of Iran's nuclear program in Natanz, where uranium enrichment was carried out, was destroyed. Tehran said the Natanz plant was damaged, but the damage had yet to be assessed, and there was no radiation contamination or leakage from the facility. The attacks on Iran continued for several hours. Israel has declared a state of emergency in the country and warned its citizens about possible retaliatory strikes, and the mobilization of reservists has also been announced.
• Shortly after the Israeli strikes, a red flag was raised over the Jamkaran Mosque near the Iranian city of Qom, a symbol of revenge. In response to the attack, Iran fired more than 100 drones at Israel, all of which were intercepted. Later, Tehran announced another drone attack on Israel.
• Tehran has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and announced the discrediting of the international organization IAEA and the withdrawal from negotiations with the United States on the nuclear deal, which have been going on for two months (we have described in more detail the positions of the parties on the nuclear deal here). The day before, Washington declared its commitment to the negotiation process and warned Israel against attacks on Iran.
It is assumed that Iran, in response to the strikes, may attack the Israeli nuclear facility in Dimona and American bases. Tehran has already stated that it considers the United States to be an accomplice in the attack on its territory.
What does this mean for Russia?
• Politically, Russia finds itself in a difficult situation, since, as a partner of Tehran, it maintains diplomatic relations with Israel. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the attack on Iran unprovoked and untimely, and said Israel's actions had undermined multilateral diplomatic efforts to conclude a nuclear deal.
• The conflict in the Middle East will force the United States to focus on supporting Israel at the expense of supporting Ukraine. Washington is already involved in the conflict, as it helps Tel Aviv not only with American weapons, but also with intelligence.
• At the same time, the Russian economy may benefit from rising crude oil prices. Against the background of Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, the price of Brent crude oil rose by 13% to $78 per barrel, which was the biggest jump during the day since March 2022. The price of the Russian Urals brand is calculated from the cost of Brent, so the domestic market also began to grow against the background of rising oil prices and growing shares of fuel companies. If Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important transportation routes for crude oil and liquefied natural gas, the upward trend in fuel prices will continue. But given OPEC's policy of increasing oil production, it won't last long.
• Against the background of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the quotes of safe haven assets, in particular, gold, have also increased. It can also be helpful for Russia, which has been increasing its gold reserves over the past few years. But this small gain outweighs the danger of continued instability in the Middle East and the risk of the situation escalating to a nuclear conflict.
World reaction
• The U.S. Embassy warned its citizens in Israel in advance of the threat and urged them to explore the locations of nearby shelters in case of possible danger. Washington said it was aware of the impending attacks, but did not take any part in them. The White House said it supports strikes against targets in Iran and called on Tehran to return to negotiations on a nuclear deal.
• Japan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have condemned the Israeli attacks on Iran. Ankara called the strikes on Iranian territory a provocation designed to disrupt negotiations on the nuclear deal. Britain, France and Germany called on the parties to the conflict to exercise restraint and supported Israel's "right to self-defense." London claims it was not involved in the strikes on Iran.
• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has condemned the military escalation in the Middle East. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the issue of Israeli attacks on Iran on Friday, June 14.
Chances of de-escalation
• Tel Aviv says that Tehran poses a threat to the existence of the Jewish state. However, experts believe that the reason for the escalation of the conflict lies in the political leadership of Israel, for which the only chance to ensure its legitimacy and permanent military and financial support from the United States is to continue the war.
• Israeli strikes on Tehran may not only hinder the implementation of the nuclear deal, but also accelerate Iran's development of nuclear weapons. Earlier, US sanctions and Israeli aggression led to Tehran increasing the pace of its nuclear program. Now Iran can take a simpler path and create, if not a full-fledged nuclear weapon, then at least a dirty bomb.
• The current conflict between Israel and Iran is significantly different from the situation last year, when mutual attacks were more demonstrative. Israel will be able to emerge victorious from the situation only if it succeeds in crushing Iran's military might in a few days. In the event of a war of attrition, Iran's chances are growing, even though it has few allies in the region.
• There is a risk that the conflict between Israel and Iran will escalate into a full-fledged war, especially if Tehran is supported by the Houthis, who attacked the Israeli Ben Gurion airport with two rockets two days before the Israeli strikes on Iran. The scale of the conflict will depend on Iran's response. Other Middle Eastern players such as Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan and Afghanistan may also be involved in the armed confrontation. In this case, the situation in the Middle East will be destabilized for many years.
• Tehran has at least 2,000 missiles that can reach targets in Israel, including military airfields, missile systems, and the Dimona nuclear center. Iran may also launch attacks on chemical plants or the port of Haifa, which is strategically and economically important for Tel Aviv. The question is whether Tehran, which lost 20 military leaders in a day, will be able to find a worthy replacement for them, able to adequately assess the prospects for the continuation of the conflict and the possible consequences of a retaliatory strike.
During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:
- political scientist and publicist Yuri Svetov;
- Vasily Ostanin-Golovni, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS;
- political scientist Onur Sinan Guzaltan;
- Vladimir Shapovalov, political scientist, Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University;
- financial analyst and journalist Ivan Danilov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
