The second atomic one: Iran has made an unexpected offer to the United States
Iran has proposed to the United States to create a "nuclear club" of Middle Eastern countries, where all participants will cooperate in the field of uranium enrichment, but exclusively for peaceful purposes. This is an attempt to find a compromise: instead of dismantling its nuclear program, as the United States insists, Iran wanted to involve Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the process. Izvestia investigated as much as possible.
An offer that can be declined
Iran has proposed to the United States to create a consortium of Middle Eastern countries to enrich uranium with the involvement of American investments, The New York Times reported, citing sources.
According to the newspaper, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented this plan to the special envoy of the American president Stephen Witkoff at recent talks in Oman. This meeting, mediated by Muscat, was the fourth to resolve the situation around the Iranian nuclear program.
Earlier, Washington demanded that Tehran completely stop enriching uranium. This implies the dismantling of nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. However, Tehran stressed that it would not abandon its plans to implement a civilian nuclear program, including uranium enrichment.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the fourth round of talks with the United States "difficult, but conducive to mutual understanding."
The Iranian government, in turn, proposed the creation of a consortium of Middle Eastern countries as an alternative to the US demand. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are considered possible participants. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated the country's readiness to continue working on guarantees of the peaceful nature of its nuclear program and adjust the level of uranium enrichment to strengthen trust with the United States.
The article notes that Tehran's initiative provides for the establishment of a trilateral nuclear consortium, the possibility for Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67%, as well as supply it to Arab countries for civilian use.
Natanz Uranium Enrichment Plant
Observers from other countries, including specialists from the United States, are expected to be present at Iranian nuclear facilities. Unlike the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of 2015, these agreements will not be limited to a period of 15 years, but may be indefinite.
Saudi Arabia's support
The idea of a multilateral uranium enrichment consortium was discussed back in October 2023 in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, when an article by former Iranian negotiator Hossein Mousavian and Princeton University professor Frank von Hippel was published. In it, the authors proposed to create a regional alliance modeled on Urenco, a consortium of Great Britain, Germany and the Netherlands that is engaged in uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes.
In their opinion, such an approach could defuse the situation around the Iranian nuclear program. "A multinational consortium is economically beneficial," the experts wrote. "It will increase confidence in the peaceful nature of uranium enrichment and improve relations between the countries of the region." In addition, the members of the alliance could commit themselves not to develop nuclear weapons.
The logo of the Urenco uranium enrichment company
The authors did not rule out Israel's participation, provided that it renounces its undeclared nuclear arsenal. "This could realize the long—held dream of a nuclear-free Middle East, which has been discussed for half a century," Musavian and von Hippel noted.
According to The Guardian, Tehran's current initiative is an attempt to enlist the support of the Persian Gulf countries, which have influence on Washington. Iran does not want to curtail its nuclear program, but is ready to make some concessions: the proposal implies that its neighbors will have access to Iranian technology, and Tehran itself will lose its monopoly on its atomic secrets.
The Arabian monarchies also have an interest in the peaceful atom. For example, Saudi Arabia is discussing with the United States the development of its own nuclear energy.
Riyadh supports negotiations between Washington and Tehran. "The Kingdom is fully in favor of dialogue on the nuclear dossier. We hope for progress and a successful conclusion of the process," said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.
Different options are being developed
Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Vostochny Vorota Telegram channel, noted in an interview with Izvestia that there is a negotiation, a study of possible options in the context of concluding the upcoming nuclear deal.
—For example, what the Israelis insist on, which is the complete dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program, including its peaceful part, is a complete absurdity and some unrealistic demands," the political scientist believes.
A technician at an Iranian uranium processing plant
According to him, the list of requirements of West Jerusalem includes not only electricity generation (although Iran covers significant energy needs with the help of nuclear power plants), but also research nuclear reactors, as well as the production of medicines.
— According to the latest statistics, Iran completely covers its needs for these medicines and even exports them. That is, by and large, Iran's nuclear program and peaceful components are quite well developed. On what basis should they end this now? — the expert wonders.
The expert added that options are currently being worked out that could suit external players, and at the same time, Iran is striving to show full transparency of intentions. As for uranium enriched to levels exceeding "peaceful", he believes that it does not reach the level necessary for the production of weapons of mass destruction. This shows that Iran is not seeking to get a nuclear bomb.
— I think there are all the possibilities, technical and scientific. The point is that the Iranians are using the intermediate level of enrichment for political purposes. For example, they are abandoning super-enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and for some adequate approaches in terms of the peaceful part of the nuclear program," the orientalist believes.
According to the analyst, Russia is interested in the Iranian peaceful atom, primarily because of the investments already made in it. For Moscow, cooperation in the field of nuclear energy is of particular economic and political interest. Ontikov explained that separate packages have been signed for the maintenance, construction and maintenance of nuclear power plants, which de facto represents a continuous stream of profits. Thus, Russia, for its part, conveys to the United States the thesis that there is no reason for Iran to abandon nuclear power plants, research reactors and other things.
Iranian technicians inspect the Bushehr nuclear power plant building
The expert added that the Russian position is to create a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.
— These are not only nuclear weapons, but also various other types of destructive weapons. And in this context, our questions are not about Iran. Questions may arise about Israel, which, albeit unofficially, possesses these very nuclear weapons," the expert said.
In addition, according to the analyst, there are no problems in providing observation missions through the IAEA or non-IAEA to Iranian nuclear facilities.
Prospects for a new deal
Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that over the past five months since the inauguration of Donald Trump, who is currently visiting the Middle East, many statements have been made, but so far they have not translated into concrete decisions and actions.
US President Donald Trump walks with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during their meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
At the same time, Nalitik considers Iran's initiative to be quite reasonable, given that at least eight stages of negotiations on the JCPOA have already passed.
— So far, who is still there, and Trump has no plans to return to anything. But it must be borne in mind that he was the man who in 2018 destroyed the JCPOA, concluded by Barack Obama in 2015. It was Trump who exerted pressure on Iran in every possible way, including threatening to conduct a military operation against Iran, and, by the way, not so long ago," the orientalist recalled.
According to Krylov, Trump's policy against Iran is a priori unconstructive, given that the American leader always sides with Israel. Therefore, the option proposed by Tehran is actually a sound approach that extends the JCPOA to virtually the entire region.
— It would really be possible to involve Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. But there is one nuance in all these proposals and initiatives of Iran. Why would Americans do that at all? For what purpose do they need this deal? And here, it seems to me, lies the most important nuance," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, if Israel does not join this initiative, does not abandon nuclear development and does not dismantle its existing arsenal of nuclear weapons, the proposed system will seriously lose effectiveness.
— Again, who will ensure the implementation of the project? Israel won't do it — there's no need. Iran, the Saudis, and possibly the Emirates would benefit from this deal, but the United States and Israel would not benefit. That is, the prospects for the deal are zero, if not even negative," the specialist concluded.
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