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Warsaw verdict: a pro-European candidate is in the lead in the Polish presidential election
Warsaw Mayor and candidate of the ruling "Civic Coalition" Rafal Trzaskowski leads the Polish presidential election with 50.3% of the vote. His rival Karol Navrotsky, supported by the opposition Law and Justice party, received 49.7%, according to exit poll data. Thanks to the victory of his protege, Prime Minister Donald Tusk will be able to concentrate full power in his hands. Trzaskowski's rise to power will also strengthen the EU's position, as the Trump administration has publicly supported Karol Nawrocki. Therefore, relations between Poland and the United States are likely to become cooler. However, it is not worth waiting for changes in Warsaw's policy towards Moscow and Kiev: the country will completely follow in the wake of Brussels, experts say. About the results of the elections in Poland — in the material of Izvestia.
Who won the Polish elections
Warsaw Mayor and candidate of the ruling "Civic Coalition" Rafal Trzaskowski leads the Polish presidential election with 50.3% of the vote. His rival Karol Navrotsky, president of the Institute of National Remembrance, supported by the opposition Law and Justice party, received 49.7%. These are the data from an exit poll conducted by Ipsos. According to preliminary estimates, the turnout in the second round was 72.8%, which is almost 6% higher than in the first vote. In the previous elections in 2020, 68% of voters went to the polling stations.
However, the final results will be announced on Monday after the votes are counted. Polish observers predict the risk of protests and lawsuits due to the extremely competitive race and the small gap between the contenders. Both candidates declare their victory and intend to fight for every vote.
Recall that in the first round of elections on May 18, Rafal Trzaskowski took first place with 31.4%, ahead of Navrotsky by less than 2%. The far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen took the third place (14.8%). The chances of the candidate from Law and Justice could be negatively affected by drug use charges after Navrotsky put an unknown bag in his mouth during a televised debate. He explained that he had used a "nicotine bag."
A possible victory for Rafal Trzaskowski would be revenge for him: in 2020, he already participated in the presidential elections and lost to the incumbent President Andrzej Duda. At the same time, the difference between the candidates was then 2% of the votes, or about 400,000 votes.
There are two main parties in the Polish political system that are fighting among themselves: the right—wing conservative and Eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) and the liberal Civic Platform/Coalition (led by the current Prime Minister Donald Tusk).
The parliamentary elections of 2015 and 2019 were won by Law and Justice, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. The governments formed by this party pursued conservative policies and also soured relations with Brussels. In particular, the EU blocked €35 billion from its funds, which were intended for Poland, due to the reform of the national judicial system. In Brussels, they considered that the changes undermine the independence of judges.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk
In 2023, the parliamentary elections were won by the union of the parties "Civil Coalition", "Third Way" and "Leftists" led by Donald Tusk, who already served as prime minister in 2007-2014. Once again heading the government, Tusk launched a series of reforms designed to return the country to the European path of development, including the elimination of PiS control over the judicial system and the media.
Poland is a parliamentary—presidential republic, and the powers of the head of state are limited here. However, the President can veto any decision of the Seimas, which can be overcome only by a two-thirds majority, which the current ruling coalition does not have. Since 2015, the post of president has been held by Andrzej Duda, a native of Law and Justice, who has been sabotaging Tusk's initiatives in every possible way.
Warsaw Mayor and candidate of the ruling "Civic Coalition" Rafal Trzaskowski
Therefore, Trzaskowski's victory means that the "Civil Coalition" will completely take control of the main institutions of power in Poland. Donald Tusk not only has a majority in parliament, but now his colleague holds the highest post in the country, which makes it possible to fully implement the political program. This will help Poland strengthen its position within the EU, as its president and government will work in the same key, Oleg Nemensky, a leading RISI expert, told Izvestia.
How will Warsaw's policy change if Trzaskowski wins?
Although Navrotsky and Trzaskowski represent polar political forces, they are united about relations with Russia — Warsaw's anti-Russian course will not change. It's not just about the historically difficult relations between the two countries. Both candidates support anti-Russian sanctions and propose to increase pressure on Moscow. None of them is ready to restore relations with the Russian Federation.
— There is no difference between the "Civil Coalition" and "Law and Justice" in relation to Russia and Ukraine, as well as between the two candidates. The difference between them is in relation to the European Union and Germany," Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University of Economics, told Izvestia.
Rafal Trzaskowski is considered a "eurooptimist," he is confident that Poland will follow the line of Brussels. And not only in foreign policy, but also in domestic policy. In particular, the politician promises to liberalize legislation in the field of abortion (abortion is now allowed only for medical reasons or rape), he is also more tolerant of same-sex unions (the LGBT movement is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation). Trzaskowski also does not raise the topic of reparations from Germany for damage caused during the Second World War. This is exactly what the Law and Justice Party is actively demanding.
Navrotsky, on the contrary, strongly emphasized his ties with the United States during the campaign. In early May, the right-wing candidate was received at the White House by American President Donald Trump, who allegedly told Navrotsky: "You will win." And on May 28, the Minister of Internal Security, Kristy Noem, openly supported the candidate from Law and Justice at a rally in Warsaw. She criticized Trzaskowski, calling him an "absolute loser."
This election campaign is interesting for Poland because if all previous campaigns used to take place when the collective West was united, now there is no unity, Belarusian political scientist and editor of the Polish service of the Belarus radio station Peter Petrovsky told Izvestia.
— The front runs between Washington on the one hand, and Brussels and the European Union on the other. The liberal globalist lobby is doing everything to prevent Poland from becoming a Trumpist stronghold in the EU," the expert said.
US President Donald Trump
The Civil Coalition has a very bad relationship with Trump because of Donald Tusk's statements. Therefore, relations between Warsaw and Washington will become even cooler and there will be much fewer contacts if Trzaskowski wins. This will weaken Poland, which claims to be a priority military and political partner of the United States in the region of Central and Eastern Europe, Oleg Nemensky emphasized.
"Poland, in case of Trzaskowski's victory, will speak with one voice in relations with the EU, that is, first of all with Brussels, Paris and Berlin," he said.
Relations with Ukraine became one of the main issues of the presidential election. Poland is actively helping Kiev. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, in April 2025, almost 1 million Ukrainians were registered in the country. Poland has also become the main supply route for Western weapons to Kiev: according to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, Poland provided Ukraine with more than €3.8 billion for military purposes during the conflict. However, anti-Ukrainian sentiments are gradually growing among the country's population. They are fueled by customs disputes over the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU.
If the candidate from the Civic Platform is able to win the elections, Poland will act in relations with Ukraine in the EU's wake. Warsaw will not try to play its game, and Donald Trump's ability to influence it will decrease, since the US president will not have direct leverage, as if Karol Nawrocki had won, concluded political analyst Oleg Nemensky.
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