Electoral rejection: the results of the elections in Romania threaten a new political crisis

The Romanian presidential election was won by the pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan with 54%. His rival, the eurosceptic George Simion, scored about 46%, but declared himself the winner, pointing to alleged fraud. The recognition of the latter threatens the country with another political crisis: the results of the last elections in December 2024 were canceled under a similar pretext. In Poland, Rafal Trzaskowski, a candidate from the ruling Civic Platform, and Karol Nawrocki, supported by the ruling Law and Justice party, reached the second round. However, the victory of any of them (no matter what views are attributed to them) is unlikely to change the current nature of relations between Moscow and Warsaw. The results of the elections in Poland and Romania, both obvious and not quite, were summed up by Izvestia.

Who won the Romanian elections

The pro-European candidate, Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, received about 54% in the presidential election, the Central election Bureau of Romania reported. His opponent, the eurosceptic George Simion, scored about 46%. At the same time, Simion has already declared himself the winner and even announced the beginning of the "reconstruction of the institutions of the Romanian state." The turnout in the elections was 64.7%, while in the first round it was 53.21%. In total, more than 11.7 million Romanian citizens went to the polls at home and abroad.

Polls before the election mostly favored Simion. Nikushor Dan's victory is most likely due to the fact that the electorate of candidates who did not make it to the second round sided with him. First of all, we are talking about the supporters of Crin Antonescu, the candidate from the ruling coalition, who lost less than one percent to the mayor of Bucharest in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election was held on May 4, and George Simion won it with 41% of the vote. The second place was taken by Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan with 21% of support. The current elections are repeated for the country. The first round of the last election campaign was held at the end of 2024, when independent candidate Kalin Georgescu won with 22.94% of the vote. Simion also participated then and scored 13.86%, supporting Georgescu in the second round. However, then the results were canceled, allegedly due to "external interference." And, of course, there were immediately those who blamed Russia for what happened.

There were incidents during these elections: police officers at a polling station in a Bucharest suburb interrupted statements by presidential candidate Simion and ex-candidate Georgescu. Simion pointed out other irregularities in the voting process: the lack of ballots and the participation of the Moldovan authorities in mobilizing the votes of the diaspora. In addition, the government of a Western European country allegedly asked Telegram founder Pavel Durov to block some Romanian channels.

— I categorically refused. Telegram will not restrict the freedom of Romanian users or block their political channels," the entrepreneur wrote.

In Romania, the ground was also being prepared for the possible cancellation of the voting results in the event of an opposition victory. The republic's Foreign Ministry predictably stated that they had detected some signs of "Russian interference." Allegedly, a "viral fake news campaign" was launched on the Telegram messenger in order to influence the electoral process. Similar accusations were made after the first round of elections in 2024. Then the Constitutional Court of Romania annulled the results of the vote.

Elections in any country are important for the EU, since all member states of the association influence decision-making. However, Romania borders Ukraine, which means it has a special significance in terms of supplying Kiev. This fits perfectly into the logic of a military confrontation with Russia, Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University of Economics, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— Given that in neighboring Hungary and Slovakia, people who are not completely loyal to the European Union are in power, we cannot allow a person who is not ready to arm Ukraine to come to power in Romania. Even if he doesn't treat Russia in the best way," the expert said.

The candidates have different opinions about Ukraine and Russia. Nikushor Dan supports Kiev, stating that it should become a member of the EU. In addition, Dan intends to strengthen ties with NATO and the European Union, and adhere to a pan-European policy towards the Russian Federation. On the contrary, Simion is critical of the Ukrainian authorities, pointing out violations of the rights of the Romanian minority. He advocates renouncing "any military support for any country" and promises to become "president of the world."

What is the difference between the candidates in the Polish presidential election?

In the Polish presidential election, two candidates reached the second round. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, supported by the ruling "Civic Coalition" led by Tusk, scored 30.8% of the vote (according to the Ipsos exit poll). Karol Navrotsky received 29.1%. He enjoys the support of the conservative Law and Justice Party, to which outgoing President Andrzej Duda belongs. The third place was taken by 38-year-old Slavomir Mentzen, who was supported by more than 15% of voters.

13 candidates from different political forces participated in the first round. The President of Poland is elected in direct general elections for five years, but for no more than two terms. The winner is the candidate who receives more than half of the votes in the first round. If no candidate manages to get 50%+1 vote, a second round is held between the two candidates with the highest number of votes.

The results of these elections will not affect relations with Russia, since there is no difference in approaches between the two main favorites. Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Navrotsky consider the Russian Federation an enemy and are ready to arm Ukraine, but are not ready to send regular troops to help Kiev, Trukhachev believes.

"The only good thing here is that both are not ready to fight Russia directly," the expert noted.

At the same time, Navrotsky is known for his work as director of the Institute of National Remembrance of Poland in the fight against monuments to Red Army soldiers. In February 2024, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation put him on the wanted list under a criminal article, it was not disclosed.

The electorate of Slavomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Brown can be considered non-Russophobic. The other candidates, to one degree or another, have extremely negative views of the Russian Federation. Supporters of Seimas Speaker Shimon Holovni are the most radical, Trukhachev noted.

Before 2014, there were significant differences between the Civic Platform and Law and Justice in the tactics of relations with Russia. Currently, relations between Moscow and Warsaw are virtually frozen and the victory of either of the two candidates will not affect them, however, the difference will be significant for Warsaw's relations with Brussels and Washington, especially since the president's office is mainly engaged in European policy, said Oleg Nemensky, a leading RISI expert.

— If Trzaskowski wins, Poland will participate as harmoniously as possible in European politics, listen to the opinions of Berlin and Brussels. He is a party member of Prime Minister Tusk, and there will be no confrontation between the president and the prime minister," the expert noted.

With Navrotsky's victory, the conflict between the president and the government will continue, which will weaken Poland, including in international relations. In this case, Warsaw will be much weaker in Europe. At the same time, he is likely to have a much more trusting relationship with Washington during the presidency of Donald Trump.

"Proximity to the United States now determines a lot for Poland, as Warsaw is focused on the status of Washington's priority partner in the region," Nemensky said.

Relations with Ukraine have become an important factor in the elections in Poland. Anti-Ukrainian sentiments are growing in the country, related to discontent with the flow of refugees and the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU. The latter hit the Polish farmers hard, who eventually turned to protests.

However, regarding Ukraine, the differences between the "Civic Platform" and "Law and Justice" are reduced to almost zero. In 2022 and 2023, Warsaw was still trying to put together a coalition to send a contingent of troops to Ukrainian territory. Now both the government and the president are saying that there are no such plans. Warsaw is much more consistent in this regard than France, which periodically announces its intention to send troops to Ukraine.

But at the level of political rhetoric, Karol Navrotsky, in the event of his victory, will make statements unpleasant for Ukraine, since Law and Justice is very harsh towards Ukrainian nationalism. The Tusk government is behaving much more calmly, Nemensky summed up.

The elections in Romania and Poland indicate that right-wing eurosceptics continue to strengthen their positions in Europe. Moreover, they have already begun to establish cooperation: Simion spoke at a rally in support of Navrotsky in Poland, calling for "stopping illegal migration and anti-American changes in Europe." At the same time, both politicians have a positive attitude towards Donald Trump and are clearly more oriented towards him than towards Brussels.