To the background: who will win the presidential elections in Romania and Poland

On Sunday, May 18, Romania will host the second round of presidential elections, while Poland will host the first. One of the issues that could determine the outcome of the election is the attitude towards Ukraine and its continued support. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Polish elections: the main candidates, what they stand for

On Sunday, May 18, the first round of presidential elections will be held in Poland. The second round of voting, if necessary, will be scheduled for June 1. The favorite in the presidential race, according to polls, is the current mayor of Warsaw and candidate from the ruling Civic Platform, Rafal Trzaskowski. He can count on 32.2% of the votes. If he wins, he promises to transform the energy sector, which, as he stressed, should be carried out at the expense of companies, not just ordinary taxpayers. He advocates an increase in European defense spending, and takes a tough stance on Russia. Tashkovsky, in particular, expressed readiness to convince European countries to spend at least 3% of GDP on defense in order to strengthen their capabilities within NATO, "in order to effectively contain Russia."

His main opponent is Karol Navrotsky, a non-partisan candidate from the Law and Justice coalition, who has served as head of the Institute of National Remembrance since 2021. According to polls, 22.7% of Polish citizens are ready to vote for him. He actively criticizes the bureaucracy of Brussels, as well as the role of Germany in the European Union (EU). He has repeatedly proposed severing diplomatic relations with Russia and is responsible for the destruction of a large number of Soviet monuments in Poland.

In third place, with the support of 13.5% of voters, is Slawomir Mentzen, who advocates radical market approaches in the economy, opposes the European agenda and Warsaw's involvement in supporting the Kiev regime, but supports strengthening NATO.

Dmitry Officer-Belsky, an expert at the Valdai Club and a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia that a second round would most likely be required in Poland to determine the winner. In his opinion, none of the candidates will be able to secure a sufficient number of votes during the first one, but according to the results of the June 1 vote, Trzaskowski is highly likely to be elected president.

Maria Pavlova, Senior Researcher at the Baltic Region Integrated Research Group at the IMEMO RAS, agrees that a second round is inevitable. She also noted that this is a traditional scenario for Poland, and the second round will include Trzaskowski and Nawrocki.

Presidential elections in Poland: Anti-Ukrainian sentiments, who will win

According to the latest data, anti-Ukrainian sentiments are intensifying against the background of the upcoming elections in Poland, in particular regarding Ukrainian refugees in the country. Because of this, presidential candidates began to use appropriate rhetoric in order to gain the support of voters.

— The Ukrainian map is now certainly popular for attracting voters. In fact, it appeared back in the summer of 2023. The parties actively used it during the preparation for the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2023. Then, the current government coalition led by Tusk's Civic Platform party was able to earn points on it, which accused the previous Law and Justice government of the fact that, despite unprecedented assistance to Kiev, the reception of Ukrainian refugees, and the excellent attitude of Poles towards them, Law and Justice could not achieve "There are no concessions on the historical track," says Maria Pavlova.

She also adds that, according to opinion polls, all three main candidates use this topic, but in different ways: Navrotsky strongly criticizes Kiev for its duplicitous position and ingratitude for the help provided by the Poles; Trzaskowski relies on economic problems; Mentzen advocates a complete cessation of Polish support for Ukraine, as well as the abolition of refugee benefits.

— The crisis in Polish-Ukrainian relations broke out back in 2023 due to the issue of the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU, which hit Polish farmers very hard. Trzaskowski criticizes from this side and tries to protect Polish farmers from unfair competition," Maria Pavlova notes.

Dmitry Officer-Belsky also notes that one should not exaggerate the influence of the Ukrainian factor. He points out that Ukrainian refugees are very visible in the social and economic life of Poland, but it is not entirely correct to call them simply refugees. This is due to the fact that many of them have already firmly settled there and make a significant contribution to the country's GDP. Another important factor, according to the expert, is the lowest birth rate in the country in its entire history.

— Somehow, the loss of population must be compensated, including by external migration. Therefore, it is better if they are Ukrainians, rather than immigrants from the Middle East or Africa, whom Poland has been refusing to accept for many years, and because of this it has serious problems with the European bureaucracy," Dmitry Officer-Belsky points out.

If we take into account the presidential elections in Poland, then the Ukrainian issue is neither primary nor even secondary. The main question in Poland is whether or not to give Donald Tusk the opportunity to fully concentrate power in his own hands. In particular, people do not want a repeat of history, when all power, both the presidential chair and the parliament, was in the hands of the Law and Justice coalition.

— Excessive concentration of power in one hand leads to numerous abuses and threats to democracy. Many Poles argue that it is not worth voting for Trzaskowski just for this reason. On the other hand, there is no alternative to it," the expert points out.

It is possible to talk about changes in Poland's policy towards Ukraine and Russia, depending on how the negotiations on a peaceful settlement will take place in Istanbul on May 15. If the Civic Platform manages to get a one-party president in the person of Trzaskowski, then a pro-European course will be observed.

The second round of elections in Romania: Who will win

The scandalous story of the Romanian presidential election, which dates back to November 2024, will also end next Sunday. The first round of the 2025 elections took place on May 4, and the 38-year-old and little-known right-wing politician, the leader of the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians, George Simion, entered the second round. He was able to gain the support of almost 41% of citizens. He is known for criticizing the EU and military aid to Ukraine.

In second place is the 55—year-old current mayor of Bucharest, Nicisor Dan, who won almost 21% of the vote. He is considered an opponent of Russia and a supporter of European Integration.

Despite this, as Dmitry Officer-Belsky noted, all candidates in Romania are against Russia.

It was also important that less than a week before the second round, the popularity ratings of Simion and Dan unexpectedly equalized.

— I can confidently say that the current Romanian leadership has a mandate for any fraud that may be from the EU. Therefore, they will do anything, draw any numbers. There is no talk of practical democracy there," Dmitry Ofitser-Belsky believes.

If we talk about possible changes in the policy of the new president, the expert notes that nothing will change. In particular, in his opinion, Dan will win in the second round.

— He has a very good administrative resource. It is being promoted in order for the current configuration of power to be preserved and there to be no excesses, sharp reversals, and policy changes," Dmitry Officer-Belsky summarizes.