Chain action: what is the danger of the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan
The escalation on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan may lead to an escalation in the region, experts believe. New clashes in the border area in the disputed Bahramcha region of Helmand province were previously reported by Al Arabiya TV channel. The border between the two countries is now closed. The clashes on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan are taking place against the backdrop of ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. As a result, Islamabad may find itself in an unpleasant situation with two hostile neighbors, experts say. What this can lead to is in the Izvestia article.
The escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Armed clashes between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani military have begun in the border area of Pakistan and Afghanistan, Bahramcha (Helmand province). This was reported by Al Arabiya TV channel. According to media reports, the conflict began due to the construction of new checkpoints on the part of Pakistan. In response to the escalation, both states have completely closed the border. So far, the parties have not shared details of the operational situation and information about losses.
This is not the first time such clashes have occurred. This is primarily due to the fact that Pakistan is actively expelling Afghan citizens and their number is increasing, Vladimir Sotnikov, a political scientist and orientalist, told Izvestia.
— The second point is related to the fact that Pakistan is currently conducting an active armed struggle against terrorist groups based in Afghanistan and carrying out raids on the Pakistani-Afghan border areas. Therefore, collisions occur there all the time," the expert explained.
Such incidents are systemic, especially after the change of power in Afghanistan in 2021.
"After the transfer of power in Afghanistan to the Taliban, they escalated and actually occur on a regular basis," Omar Nessar, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
Helmand, where the escalation has now occurred, borders the Pakistani province of Balochistan. Earlier, the Pakistani Interdepartmental Public Relations Department reported that on May 28, five members of the Indian Fitna al-Hindustan group, whom Islamabad considers terrorists, were killed during operations in Balochistan.
The clashes on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan are taking place against the backdrop of ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. Relations between the countries worsened after the terrorist attack on April 22, when a group of terrorists shot tourists in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for the attack, and Islamabad called New Delhi's reaction unfair and politically motivated. The parties announced the start of military operations, but on May 10 they decided to suspend them after negotiations mediated by the United States.
The current escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is significantly destabilizing the situation in the region, Vladimir Sotnikov stressed.
— Earlier, although an indefinite ceasefire was reached between India and Pakistan, but no one can guarantee that there will not be a new escalation. And if it so happens that Pakistan will simultaneously escalate with both India and Afghanistan, then it will find itself in a very unpleasant situation with two hostile neighbors on its border, the expert believes.
According to the Arms Control Association, India has 172 nuclear warheads in service, while Pakistan has 170. The former supports the principle of non-use of nuclear weapons first, promising to use them only in response. Pakistan had no such promises.
— Regarding the tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Russia remains neutral and will continue to maintain it. For Moscow, of course, the aggravation of the situation in South and Southwest Asia, in close proximity to the borders of the CIS and Central Asian states, is a zone of national interests," Vladimir Sotnikov said.
Russia is now interested in stability in the region, said Omar Nessar. Moscow is also interested in implementing infrastructure projects such as the TAPI gas pipeline, which runs through Afghanistan, India and Pakistan.
How are Afghanistan's neighbors building relations with Kabul
Despite the difficult relations with Afghanistan, many states have recently adopted a policy of establishing ties with the Taliban, which came to power in 2021.
For example, in March 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that the republic had removed the Taliban regime from the terrorist list in order to develop economic cooperation with Kabul. Then he also called for support for the republic's initiative to establish the UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Alma Ata.
In September of the same year, Kyrgyzstan also officially excluded the Taliban from the list of banned organizations. It was noted that this decision is aimed at strengthening regional stability and maintaining dialogue.
Tashkent also intends to strengthen cooperation with Kabul, Izvestia found out.
"Uzbekistan is committed to the comprehensive development and strengthening of relations with Afghanistan, actively promoting cooperation in economic, digital and other fields based on mutual respect, equality and common interests, contributing to the stability and prosperity of the region," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the republic said.
In August 2024, Tashkent and Kabul signed 35 investment and trade agreements worth $2.5 billion. At the same time, Uzbekistan has never included the Taliban movement in the list of terrorist organizations.
Relations between Kabul and Dushanbe are more difficult. Tajikistan still considers the Taliban a terrorist organization. Relations are also straining due to the construction of the Kosh Tepe irrigation canal by Afghanistan. The main problem is the withdrawal of water from the Amu Darya River, which is vital for Tajikistan. The Russian ambassador to Dushanbe, Semyon Grigoriev, also previously reported that the Taliban had not yet ensured the security of neighboring countries.: According to him, the extremists have repeatedly attempted to break into Tajikistan.
However, the official representative of Afghanistan, Zabiullah Mujahid, stated in 2025 that relations between Afghanistan and Tajikistan are positive, there are no problems between the two countries.
Although Turkmenistan does not officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government in Afghanistan, the country is actively developing cooperation with Kabul. The parties are implementing major infrastructure projects, including the transnational TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan– Afghanistan – Pakistan – India).
Moscow is gradually building relations with the Taliban. On April 17, 2025, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation considered cases on the exclusion of this Islamist movement from the list of terrorist organizations. As a result, the court suspended the ban on the organization's activities in the country — its decision came into force on May 20.
This step will allow Russia to establish partnership relations with Kabul, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu emphasized.
"We can also discuss the resumption of the SCO–Afghanistan contact group," he said.
In 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized: "In general, we must assume that the Taliban movement controls power in the country. And in this sense, the Taliban are certainly our allies in the fight against terrorism."
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
