Danger Tip: Russia may become an intermediary between India and Pakistan

Russia may become an intermediary in de-escalation between India and Pakistan, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The 1966 Declaration on the Cessation of Hostilities was signed with the participation of the USSR. The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had talks with the foreign ministers of both countries. Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force on the border has been put on alert, and Islamabad has requested a meeting of the UN Security Council. The Russian Embassy told Izvestia that they are taking additional security measures and are ready for any scenario. At the same time, residents of India are confident that it will not come to hostilities, but they are afraid of terrorist attacks. Who else can contribute to the settlement of the conflict is in the Izvestia article.

How close are India and Pakistan to war

It has been two weeks since the terrorist attack in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which New Delhi blames on Pakistani terrorists allegedly supported by Islamabad. Meanwhile, tensions between the neighboring nuclear powers are rising. The sides switched from diplomatic restrictions to checking combat readiness. The state has introduced counter-terrorism measures, launching raids in areas where militants and their accomplices may be hiding. Security measures have also been strengthened in tourist Goa. Since April 26, there have been inspections in settlements where migrants live.

In addition, New Delhi reported daily violations of the ceasefire from the Pakistani side - as a result, by May 5, the Indian Air Force on the border was completely put on alert. Against this background, Pakistan conducted a couple of tests, launching a Fatah surface-to-surface missile with a range of 120 km, as well as an Abdali ballistic missile with a range of 450 km.

At the same time, there is no tension in India itself. Residents of large cities, that is, those who are most informed about what is happening, are confident in their safety, regardless of their level of education and wealth. For example, a taxi driver or a financier working for a large foreign company, both from Mumbai, believe that large—scale clashes will not happen — mainly, of course, because of the military potential of the Indian Armed Forces. Indeed, in almost all respects they surpass the Pakistani ones by two, and sometimes even three times.

Moreover, such an escalation is something like a matter of course for them. "The war between India and Pakistan has never ended," one of them summed up. According to them, new potential terrorist attacks are much more dangerous.

At the same time, young girls from the "heart of India", as Mumbai residents like to call their city, feel very comfortable, even despite the terrorist attack, as it was "far from us." "You can safely walk here at 2, 3, and 4 nights. Nothing's going to happen. Everything changes here at night. It's very beautiful," Anisha said, watching the setting sun of Mumbai on the waterfront.

Interestingly, in Mumbai, journalists were accommodated in the notorious Trident Oberoi Hotel, where one of the most notorious terrorist attacks in recent years took place in November 2008. Then, within a few days, a series of attacks took place — the militants started shooting, including at the Taj Mahal hotel, whose photo with the burning historical building flew all over the Internet, in the station building, in the police station, in the Jewish center, just on the streets. More than 160 people were killed in a series of attacks. By the way, the Islamist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation), which includes the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the recent terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, is accused of those attacks.

Some, like typical residents of large cities, prefer not to notice what is happening at all — because of work there is not enough time to follow the news agenda. These were the residents of Agra, where the famous Taj Mahal is located. Although, given the density of Mumbai and New Delhi, a town with a population of a couple million people is probably considered very modest by Indian standards. However, not everyone shares the general carelessness. For example, an employee of one of the chain hotels in Agra believes that everything depends on the government of India. In her opinion, fighting is quite possible if official New Delhi deems it necessary.

Who can resolve the conflict between India and Pakistan

Relations between India and Pakistan have worsened after the terrorist attack on April 22 near the city of Pahalgam in the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. 27 civilians were killed. As a result, the parties took drastic measures, in addition to the standard expulsion of diplomats. India has closed the land border, suspended the issuance of visas, as well as the operation of the more than 60-year-old Treaty on Water Resources in the Indus River Basin. In response, Islamabad also suspended trade with New Delhi, including through third countries, closed its airspace and suspended all bilateral agreements. India has also decided to temporarily close the "air" from April 30 to May 23 and to stop imports from Pakistan.

Due to the escalated situation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to cancel a trip to Moscow for the Victory Day Parade on May 9. Instead, it was decided to send Defense Minister Rajnath Singh to represent India at the celebrations. However, according to media reports, he will also miss the parade. His deputy Sanjay Seth is now expected.

Due to New Delhi's rather harsh reaction to the terrorist attack, Islamabad is seriously considering a military scenario. By the way, Pakistani officials have repeatedly warned of an allegedly imminent and imminent attack from India. The dates were given as several days, and frighteningly accurate, for example, from 24 to 36 hours. In particular, the Russian diplomatic mission in Islamabad is strengthening security measures, preparing for any eventuality.

— Due to the increased tension, the embassy is taking additional security measures. We are ready for any scenario, including the most unfavorable scenario," they told Izvestia.

They added that the Russian mission is in contact with the relevant departments of the Islamic Republic and calls on Pakistani partners to exercise restraint and engage in constructive dialogue with their eastern neighbor to resolve differences.

As the situation escalated, Islamabad requested a meeting of the UN Security Council. Pakistan believes that the Security Council should ensure the right of the Kashmiri people to self-determination, said Ambassador to Russia Muhammad Khalid Jamali.

However, it is unlikely that a joint statement or even a formal resolution would have immediately reduced tensions. In this case, Moscow could play a constructive role in resolving the escalated conflict, Indian and Russian experts believe. Over the past few days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has held a telephone conversation with colleagues from both countries, Subramaniam Jaishankar and Ishaq Dar. Moreover, the dialogue with the latter took place on the initiative of the Pakistani side. Sergey Lavrov called for the settlement of differences between New Delhi and Islamabad based on the provisions, including the Simla Agreement of 1972. However, there is a caveat: the government of Pakistan had previously announced the suspension of its operation.

— Indians most likely take Russia's advice seriously, but only when it is transmitted quietly, behind the scenes. The Indians do not want any external player to publicly mediate in their conflict with Pakistan. Pakistan will also listen to Russia, but most likely if the "message" comes through China," Atul Kohli, a professor of political science and international relations at Princeton University, tells Izvestia.

Theoretically, in a few months, Russia could offer a platform for negotiations, if the need arises, said Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the IMEMO RAS. At least the Tashkent Declaration, the agreement on the cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, was signed on the territory of the USSR.

India will need Russia's support in the event of serious government action, says Ajay Dubey, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. In addition to Moscow, the United States, the EU, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can also play a constructive role — Arab countries often act as platforms for discussing a peaceful settlement.