New reality: Moscow may join trans-Afghan projects
Russia's decision to lift an earlier ban on the activities of the Taliban movement opens a new chapter in Central Asian politics. This may be a chance for Moscow to join major regional projects. In turn, the Central Asian states will be able to gain direct access to the ports of the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf through Afghanistan. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
As an exception
The Supreme Court of Russia suspended the ban on the activities of the Taliban movement in power in Afghanistan, which had been in force for more than 20 years, and decided to remove it from the relevant list. Kabul welcomed this step.
The decision was the result of a diplomatic process that is developing between the countries. Last spring, the Russian president's special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said that the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had informed Russian President Vladimir Putin about the possibility of lifting the ban.
As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained, the ministry considers it necessary to exclude the Taliban from the list of banned groups, since "they are the real power in Afghanistan."
De facto, this means the legal recognition of the new political reality in Afghanistan, where the Taliban has been in power since 2021. In addition, this decision contributes to the development of trade and economic ties and security cooperation between the states. In general, after the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the trade turnover between Moscow and Kabul reached $ 1 billion.
Over the past decades, the parties have gone from mutual hostility to cooperation. As a result of diplomatic efforts, the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan appeared in the spring of 2017 with the participation of representatives of the countries of the region and the Taliban. By 2021, when the Taliban entered the Afghan capital, Russia already had well-established contacts with the movement.
Back in October 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow "will make a decision to exclude the Taliban from this terrorist list." In fact, Russian officials are already holding meetings with representatives of the movement and inviting them to various events, including the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
New features
The decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation to suspend the ban on the activities of the Taliban movement marks the beginning of a new stage in the development of geopolitical processes in Central Asia. In particular, it opens up the possibility for Moscow to participate in large—scale regional projects, such as the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India) and the Trans-Afghan Railway.
On the other hand, it will enable the Central Asian states to gain direct access to the ports of the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean through the territory of Afghanistan. According to Zamir Kabulov, the Afghan side will be represented at a high governmental and business level at the upcoming exhibition in May within the framework of the XVI International Economic Forum "Russia — the Islamic World: KazanForum".
According to Kabulov, "Afghanistan's rich mineral resources and strategic geographical location open up significant prospects for cooperation, allowing the country to become an important transit bridge between Russia, Central and South Asia."
The forum in Kazan will consider projects for the construction of the Termez–Naibabad –Logar–Kharlachi and Mazar-I–Sharif–Herat–Dilaram–Kandahar-Chaman railways, with a total length of 573 km and a capacity of up to 20 million tons of cargo per year.
It is possible that the next stage may be the construction of TAPI gas pipelines for the export of Turkmen gas and, possibly, TAPI-2 for the supply of Russian fuel.
In addition, the construction of the Kambaratinskaya HPP-1 is expected to be completed, as well as the TUTAP energy project (Turkmenistan – Uzbekistan – Tajikistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan), which Moscow considered participating in seven years ago.
What do the experts think
Omar Nessar, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with Izvestia that Moscow and the Taliban are also establishing cooperation in the field of combating terrorism. However, he noted that representatives of the Taliban are quite difficult partners.
— Selective cooperation is developing, since the Taliban are actively opposing ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Both states are interested in neutralizing the threats posed by international terrorist groups, as well as in stabilizing the situation in the region," the political scientist noted.
The expert added that the requirements related to human rights remain important and relevant for Moscow.
— The Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the recognition of the Taliban will happen if the latter respect human rights. The authorities in Afghanistan are expected to respect women's rights and create an inclusive government with the participation of various ethnic groups," the expert points out.
The analyst added that removing the status of terrorists from the Taliban is a step towards legitimization, but it does not mean that Moscow officially recognizes the Taliban.
There are three problems in the current situation, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean Region Group at the IMEMO RAS Center for Asia-Pacific Studies, explained in an interview with Izvestia.
— The first one is purely technical. Laying a pipeline through mountain ranges is expensive and complicated. In order for Russia to "fit into" the project, it is necessary to understand exactly why, what it will gain from this and what it will lose," the political scientist noted.
In his opinion, the second difficulty lies in the fact that there are no guarantees yet that stability in Afghanistan will last for a long time.
— There is no certainty that the current or future regime will not want to use the pipe as an instrument of political pressure. Finally, the third problem is the relations between India and Pakistan. Even if they improve, the Indians will not turn TAPI into the main gas supply line, the analyst believes.
Rustam Burnashev, a professor at the Kazakh-German University, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the suspension by the Russian Supreme Court of the ban on the activities of the Taliban movement demonstrates that Moscow has fixed "the objective reality that has developed over the past few years."
— In this way, Russia recognizes that it is necessary to cooperate with the Taliban. Whether this changes the geopolitics of Central Asia is an open question. In my opinion, this creates opportunities for Russia to participate more actively in the so-called trans-Afghan initiatives. For the Central Asian countries themselves, this is just an additional incentive to open such projects," the expert explained.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
