Merz announced the lifting of restrictions on strikes with Western weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What does this mean?

Germany has announced that the allied countries have lifted restrictions on the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine. Previously, the United States, Great Britain and France allowed their missiles to strike Russia, but the German Taurus exceed the range of other Western missiles by almost half. Whether Ukraine will receive a Taurus and what kind of missiles Kiev may have now is in the analysis of Izvestia.

Merz's statement

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at the WDR European Forum in Berlin on May 26 that the allied countries had lifted restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine. It is assumed that Ukraine will use these weapons only against military targets.

• On the same day, Vice Chancellor and CDU/CSU party leader Lars Klingbeil told the press that there was no new agreement beyond the framework set by the former German government. The representative of the SPD party, MP Ralf Stegner, said that such conversations and "military logic" do not contribute to diplomatic efforts to conclude peace between the countries. Later, on May 27, Merz clarified that the decision he had announced had been made several months ago.

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The contradictory statements of the German authorities have confused many. In particular, the Kremlin noted "considerable confusion," and the Russian Foreign Ministry said it was confident that such strikes had been tacitly allowed for a long time. Given the statistics of Western weapons strikes on Russian border territories, such a permit may indeed have been in effect for some time.

• The expert community notes disagreements in the German government: there is disagreement between the coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), who are against the supply of long-range Taurus missiles, and the Christian Democrats (CDU), who approve of them. A meeting between Merz and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is scheduled for May 28 in Berlin: it is very likely that these negotiations will focus specifically on possible missile supplies.

The Allies' position on long-range weapons

• Former US President Joe Biden made the decision to lift restrictions on the range of strikes against Russia on November 18, 2024, two months before leaving office. This allowed Ukraine to use American ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of up to 306 km across the Bryansk and Kursk regions. Foreign military analysts had already warned that Biden's decision would not change the situation on the battlefield, which was not in favor of the Ukrainian forces.

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• The United Kingdom and France supplied Kiev with long-range Storm Shadow missiles and their French equivalent, the SCALP, with a range of over 250 km back in 2023. Kiev could only use these shells to attack new regions of Russia, including Crimea. After Washington unblocked long-range weapons strikes on Russian territory, the allies followed suit. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the first strikes by the British Storm Shadow and ATACMS in the Rostov region on November 19, 2024.

• Germany, despite regular arms supplies, resisted Ukraine's requests to supply the country with KEPD-350 Taurus stealth cruise missiles with a range of over 500 km - this was the principled position of former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The new head of government, Friedrich Merz, conducted an election campaign promising to transfer long-range missiles to Kiev, but after taking office, he began to say that the Taurus supplies would not be able to change the situation at the front.

Why is the statement made now?

Analysts believe that Merz's statements should be treated with caution, since his words were general in nature and nothing specific was said. However, the moment may not be chosen by chance: the statement can be interpreted as an attempt to put pressure on Russia against the background of the ongoing negotiation process on Ukraine.

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• It may also be an attempt by the German Chancellor to make his country a part of the negotiation process, from which the Europeans have so far been successfully excluded. The Russian Federation has repeatedly noted that European countries and the so-called coalition of the willing (we wrote more about this group and its intentions here) only intend to delay and disrupt the process, as by their actions they prolong the conflict without doing anything to resolve it.

• The European Union is shaping the image of Russia as the main enemy against which European society should rally, which, against the background of the economic crisis caused by aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, is skeptical about the prospects for European integration. From the point of view of Western "hawks", the longer the Ukrainian crisis lasts, the more Russia will be weakened (we discussed here what other motives force the EU to delay the settlement of the conflict).

• Some people also tend to read Merz's statement as a message that German long-range Taurus missiles are either already in Ukraine or will be delivered there in the near future. This was the case with the supplies of ATACMS and Storm Shadow: public statements about their shipment followed their transfer. Due to the fact that on May 10 Berlin ordered the secrecy of data on arms supplies to Ukraine, it is possible to find out about the transfer of missiles only after the decision has already been made. Germany is known to have 600 such missiles, many of which are in need of repair. The Taurus production line is currently closed, previously it could produce up to 40-60 rockets per year. According to unconfirmed reports from some media outlets, Ukraine may receive up to 150 missiles.

• In the case of the transfer of Taurus, which of the entire galaxy of NATO countries have the longest range — up to 500 km, the Tula, Lipetsk, Tambov and Saratov regions, as well as the Moscow region, may be in the range of missiles. However, this will have little effect on the situation at the front, as the Russian Armed Forces have already shown the effectiveness of destroying warehouses, airfields and other places of supply and storage of weapons in demilitarizing Ukraine.

During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:

• military expert, retired Colonel Viktor Litovkin;
• Alexander Konkov, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation;
• political scientist Alexander Rara.