Background window: how is the Ukrainian settlement process progressing
Information about where the second round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will take place is updated almost every day. As Izvestia found out, Switzerland is seeking the right to provide a platform for dialogue between Moscow and Kiev. The country maintains contacts with both Russia and Ukraine in order to be able to host the talks in the future, the Swiss Foreign Ministry told the editorial board. Earlier, the Vatican was mentioned as one of the options, but recently Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he did not consider this realistic. Experts believe that a new meeting will take place in Turkey again. The background on which negotiations can take place is also changing daily: a large-scale prisoner exchange ended over the weekend, and on Sunday night, in response to massive drone attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian Federation launched a powerful strike against targets on Ukrainian territory. Izvestia investigated which country could eventually be chosen to continue the dialogue on settlement and what are the reasons for the growing split between the United States and the EU.
Where will the second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine take place
The second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will take place, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. However, the date and place have not yet been determined, the head of the foreign ministry said. A new meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations may take place in the week from May 26 to June 1, Bloomberg sources say. After a conversation with US President Donald Trump on May 19, Zelensky said that among the options being considered were the Vatican, Switzerland and Turkey, where the first stage of negotiations took place on May 16.
Bern is indeed maintaining contacts with Moscow and Kiev at various levels in order to be able to host negotiations in the future, the country's Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
— The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has taken note of President Zelensky's statement, in which, among other things, he suggested Switzerland as a possible venue for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. We maintain contacts with all stakeholders at various levels. Switzerland remains ready to offer its good offices in support of a genuine peace process, the republic's diplomatic department told Izvestia.
However, there are still no structural changes in Bern's foreign policy, which remains openly unfriendly towards the Russian Federation and is steadily increasing cooperation with NATO and the European Union. At the same time, there is no question of a lack of potential intermediary countries for organizing Russian-Ukrainian contacts, the Russian Embassy in Switzerland noted.
"Thus, while maintaining the current dynamics and the openly pro—Kiev course of the Swiss authorities, the question of organizing such a meeting on the territory of the confederation is rather speculative," the diplomatic mission told Izvestia.
The Russian Embassy has not received any such requests from the Swiss side. The Russian side does not proactively raise this issue due to the reasons already mentioned, the diplomats concluded.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal newspaper, citing sources, claimed that a new round of negotiations between the parties to the conflict could take place in the Vatican in mid-June. According to the publication, the head of the White House, Donald Trump, admitted in a conversation with European leaders that he could send a high-ranking delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Keith Kellogg to these talks.
The possible choice of the Vatican as a platform for negotiations is "a little inelegant" — in this case, the two Orthodox countries will have to discuss issues on Catholic soil, including Orthodoxy in Ukraine. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a conference dedicated to the historical South Russian lands.
There is currently no country in Europe that has not lost its uniqueness as a neutral negotiating platform in Moscow's eyes. Turkey, which has already hosted several rounds of peace talks since the beginning of the conflict, remains the most suitable place to continue the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
— Besides Turkey, negotiations could potentially take place in Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has already hosted high-ranking delegates, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Perhaps they will return to it when it comes to organizing high—level meetings," the expert believes.
The first round of negotiations between Moscow and Kiev since 2022 was held in Istanbul on May 16. Initially, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed holding a meeting in Turkey on the 15th, but in the end, the parties postponed it for a day. The negotiations lasted almost two hours, and the delegations agreed to conduct a prisoner exchange according to the "1000 to 1000" formula. The exchange started on May 23, when 270 military and 120 civilians returned to Russia. The next day, the parties handed over another 307 military personnel to each other. And on May 25, another 303 Russian servicemen were returned from the territory controlled by the Kiev regime, the Defense Ministry said. In total, 880 servicemen and 120 civilians were returned from Ukrainian captivity as a result of the exchange, said Alexander Fomin, deputy head of the Russian military department.
On May 19, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Donald Trump, during which the parties discussed further settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. After these talks, the Russian president said that Moscow was ready to work with Kiev on a memorandum including a cease-fire. The development of Russian proposals for a settlement in Ukraine is nearing its end, and they will be handed over to the Ukrainian authorities in the coming days, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev said at the end of the week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
At the same time, the fighting continues. On the night of May 25, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive strike with high-precision weapons of sea, air, land-based and unmanned aerial vehicles at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine. All designated targets were hit, the Russian Defense Ministry said. As explained in the Ministry, these enterprises produced rocket weapon components, radio electronics, explosives, rocket fuel and attack unmanned aerial vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Strikes were also carried out on the centers of electronic intelligence and satellite communications.
The attack was a response to massive drone strikes by the Kiev regime. In just one night on May 25, 110 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed over the Russian regions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also attacked the Kursk region during Vladimir Putin's visit to the region on May 20. The president's helicopter was actually in the epicenter of repelling a massive attack by enemy drones, said Yuri Dashkin, commander of the air defense division, in whose area of responsibility the region is located, on the Rossiya 24 TV channel.
How the US and EU's position on Ukraine is changing
Meanwhile, the positions of the EU and the United States on the issue of negotiations with Russia continue to diverge. After a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump spoke with the Prime Minister of Italy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the presidents of France and Ukraine, as well as EC President Ursula von der Leyen.
According to Western media reports, some EU leaders insisted that any negotiations in the Vatican should result in an unconditional cease-fire. Trump allegedly objected, saying that he did not like the term "unconditional," and the Europeans agreed to abandon it. In addition, instead of announcing new anti-Russian sanctions, the American president, according to a number of publications, began to talk about the prospects for resuming trade between Washington and Moscow.
The specifics of the situation lie in the fact that the European Union currently does not have many options for independent action that would go beyond the steps that everyone is used to and that are expected from the EU. The European Union has not used any original, innovative tools for a long time, and it can threaten with force without the support of the United States only in words, Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
— Therefore, much of what is currently being discussed at various venues in the EU or heard in the speeches of its officials, in fact, represents all the same classic levers of pressure that Brussels used at different stages of the conflict with varying intensity. It is clear that they are talking again about the accelerated introduction of a new package of sanctions, and the discussion of the oil price ceiling and the introduction of additional restrictions in the banking sector has begun again," the expert said.
Secretary of State Rubio's point of view on the need to tighten the sanctions regime against Russia and Iran, as well as the similar position of National security Adviser Michael Waltz, who was fired on May 1 (now nominated for the post of US ambassador to the United Nations), did not find support from Trump. The head of the White House appreciates the public loyalty of his team members, even if they disagree internally with the president, said Egor Toropov, an American researcher at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
"Since his November victory, when he promised to end the conflict in 24 hours, Trump himself has already distanced himself from specific details and is ready to announce just the start of direct negotiations between the delegations as his own great diplomatic victory," the expert noted.
US President Donald Trump
Meanwhile, concerns are growing in Europe about the US withdrawal from the Ukrainian conflict and the complete withdrawal of support from Kiev. Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed that the situation in Ukraine is the fault of the Biden administration. In addition, the American leader demonstrates that he is not interested in the ideological confrontation between democracies and autocracies, which was promoted by his predecessor.
The Russian-Ukrainian negotiation process will certainly be complex and extremely difficult. It is no secret that both Kiev and its European patrons have many supporters of disrupting diplomatic efforts. Such people have influence in the U.S. Senate and even in the White House, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— The preparation of the memorandum is taking place in the most difficult conditions of opposition from the Western "war party". The chances of an early success, let's be honest, so far look slim. The Zelensky regime is not going to recognize the new territorial realities, abandon the course of integration into NATO and ensure the rights of Russian—speaking citizens and the canonical Orthodox Church," the expert says.
"These figures were forced to negotiate only under pressure from Washington," and are now looking for an excuse to abandon contacts with Russia, he noted. It is possible that the Russian Federation will have to continue to force them to peace on the battlefield, overcoming numerous provocations. But sooner or later, Karpovich concluded, the Ukrainian side will have to understand that there is no alternative to a peaceful solution to the accumulated problems, taking into account Russia's interests.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
