Step at the meeting: the results of the first negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years

One of the main results of the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in three years was the willingness of Moscow and Kiev to continue further dialogue and exchange views on a possible ceasefire. The parties also agreed to conduct a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war in the near future according to the "1000 to 1000" formula. This was stated by the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, following a two-hour meeting in Istanbul. Kiev has also requested direct talks between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. But the expert community believes that significant progress in the Ukrainian settlement is possible only in a dialogue between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States. About how the negotiations in Turkey went and why the head of the Russian Defense Ministry came to Minsk — in the material of Izvestia.

Kiev has requested direct talks between Putin and Zelensky

No matter how Kiev delayed this meeting, Russia and Ukraine nevertheless resumed direct negotiations on the settlement of the armed conflict. On May 16, the delegations of the two countries met again in Istanbul at the Dolmabahce Palace, where they broke off contacts three years ago. According to media reports, after the welcoming speech, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan remained in the negotiating room. Besides him, the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, was present at the meeting.

The conversation, which took place in Russian with the Ukrainian delegation having an interpreter, lasted almost two hours and produced a definite result. The head of the Russian delegation, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky, said that in the coming days a prisoner exchange will take place between Russia and Ukraine according to the "1000 to 1000" formula. In addition, Kiev has requested direct talks between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. Moscow took this request into consideration, Vladimir Medinsky noted. Finally, Russia and Ukraine agreed to present their vision of a "possible future" ceasefire.

"After such a vision is presented, we consider it advisable — it has also been agreed — to continue negotiations," Vladimir Medinsky told reporters after the meeting.

The results of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul represent the maximum achievable at the moment, said Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, in an interview with Interfax. In his opinion, this indicates that the process has returned to normal, as planned in March 2022.

By the way, before the negotiations, it became known that Russia and Ukraine had exchanged the bodies of dead servicemen. According to RBC, Russia returned 909 bodies and received 34 in response. The last such exchange took place in mid-April.

Vladimir Medinsky stressed that the Russian Federation is generally satisfied with the result and is ready to continue contacts with Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, in turn, said that Kiev would "inform soon" about the agenda of the next round of negotiations.

Later, on the air of the 60 Minutes program on the Rossiya 1 TV channel, Medinsky: the Russian delegation reminded the Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul of the terms of mutual agreements in 2022, it was important. He commented on the demands to negotiate only after the cease-fire: "As a rule, always, as Napoleon said, war and negotiations are conducted simultaneously."

In the morning, Ukrainians held final consultations with representatives of key military donors — the United States, Germany, Great Britain and France. The West has not stopped threatening Russia if it does not agree to make concessions. Thus, the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised Moscow a new sanctions package, which, however, must already be approved by the EU on May 20. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, also held a meeting with representatives of the United States, the media reported.

The day before, representatives of Kiev defiantly ignored the arrival of the Russian negotiators, who had been waiting for their counterparts in Istanbul since early morning. On May 16, handshakes and greetings of any kind were not shown at the beginning of the negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine by prior agreement of the parties. The representatives of Russia and Turkey chose classic costumes, observing the official format of the negotiations. Most of the Ukrainian delegation arrived at the talks in military-style clothes, abandoning the business dress code, while its head and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov wore a black suit.

Why did Belousov go to Belarus on May 16

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Belarus on May 16. In Minsk, he had a meeting with President Alexander Lukashenko, where they discussed strengthening defense cooperation and joint exercises Zapad — 2025. Some of the maneuvers will take place at Belarusian training grounds, and Alexander Lukashenko stressed that Minsk is "ready for exercises."

"We plan to jointly work out actions to repel aggression against the Union State using the regional group of troops of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation," Andrei Belousov said, noting the purely defensive nature of the exercises.

Although the maneuvers are scheduled for September, it is possible that the words of the Russian minister and the Belarusian president may serve as a signal to Kiev and its Western sponsors about their readiness to respond in case of increased military pressure on the Russian Federation, said Alexei Dzermant, a Belarusian political scientist and director of the Center for the Study and Development of Continental Integration North Eurasia.

"The fact that Russia and Belarus are working very closely in the defense sector is in itself a signal to the West and Ukraine that we can adequately meet any aggressive actions in our direction," he told Izvestia.

Lukashenko said that Minsk and Moscow are actively implementing agreements on the deployment of modern weapons on Belarusian territory, including the Oreshnik missile system. Earlier it became known that the production of launchers for the Oreshnik is being completed in the republic, Belarus is awaiting the arrival of missiles from Russia.

Prospects for a Ukrainian settlement

Although Russia and Ukraine have discussed possible contacts between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, it is unlikely that they will be possible in the near future, according to the expert community.

—Zelensky will present this either as his victory, or as the fact that he 'rigidly defends the interests of Ukraine,'" Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

At the same time, Moscow will not abandon negotiations and further contacts with Ukraine, maintaining a dialogue with the United States, the expert believes.

— We will do everything we can. As for the United States, of course, they are interested in ending the conflict, even on terms that are absolutely not beneficial to us, but simply in order to present this as a "Trump victory." They say he came and "put things in order" by bringing everyone to the negotiating table," Bohdan Bezpalko said.

US President Donald Trump, who blames the Joe Biden administration for the outbreak of the conflict, has been advocating an early cease-fire since the beginning of his presidential term. Earlier, Trump said he could call Putin to discuss a settlement in Ukraine. He also stated his readiness to meet with the Russian leader "as soon as it is possible to arrange it."

— This issue (of the Ukrainian settlement. Due to its scale and the fact that it involves two nuclear superpowers, it primarily takes place at the level of Russia and the United States. And a lot will depend on further conversations between Trump and Putin," Timofey Bordachev, professor at the Higher School of Economics and program director of the Valdai Club, told Izvestia.

At the same time, the expert admits that a personal meeting between the heads of the Russian Federation and the United States may lead to significant progress in the Ukrainian settlement.

It should be noted that although the current US administration positions itself as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, Washington continues to provide military assistance to Kiev and provide it with intelligence information, which prevents an early resolution of the crisis.

It is also reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a number of European leaders had a telephone conversation with Donald Trump after talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul. Among the European leaders who participated in this conversation are French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish and British Prime Ministers Donald Tusk and Keir Starmer, as well as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who are currently at the European Political Community summit in Albania.