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- Distraction Park: why Europe is actively promoting the idea of a future "war with Russia"
Distraction Park: why Europe is actively promoting the idea of a future "war with Russia"
Leading European politicians, including the EU leadership, as well as the continent's mainstream media continue to provide the public with new details of the "impending war with Russia" and urge fellow citizens to prepare for it. Thus, a specific information context is being formed in Europe, which has not been seen for more than half a century. We studied Izvestia, whose interests this corresponds to.
The enemy is at the gate
Germany is preparing for war. At least, this is stated by the leaders of the country's leading political forces. Despite the failure of the "traffic light coalition," the members of the future federal government are completely repeating the rhetoric of their predecessors.
In the meantime, the figure of the future chancellor and the composition of the new executive body of the Federal Republic of Germany have not been determined, the outgoing government continues to create informational occasions.
On April 7, the German Ministry of the Interior joined the recommendations issued at the end of March by the European Commission. They asked EU residents to prepare food, water, medicines, and energy supplies to ensure "autonomous survival for 72 hours in the event of a crisis," which includes "war, natural disasters due to global warming, a pandemic, or cyber attacks." The Spanish edition of El Pais writes about this.
As noted by the authoritative German magazine Focus, many Germans are already preparing shelters and collecting "alarming suitcases."
At the same time, according to Handelsblatt, the German Interior Ministry is proposing to introduce lessons on civil defense in the country's schools. It is noteworthy that the ministry is headed by Nancy Feather, a member of the SPD, who is known for harsh statements against Russia and its political leadership.
Meanwhile, Patrick Zenzburg, president of the Bundeswehr Reservists' Union, said in an interview with Der Spiegel that it was necessary to raise the number of reservists to 1 million people, that is, by 25 times. The number of the Bundeswehr (which has been steadily decreasing in recent years), in his opinion, also needs to be sharply increased almost twofold — from 181 thousand to 350 thousand people.
President of the Bundeswehr Reservists Union Patrick Zenzburg.
Such bold, if not impossible, demands are being made by politicians in the light of the amendments to the basic law adopted on March 25 by the Bundesrat (House of Representatives of the federal states of Germany), which from now on will allow increasing external borrowing for defense spending above pre-existing standards (the "debt brake").
According to Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, Zenzburg's proposal meets the traditions of the German Empire, where reservist organizations were one of the main conduits of militarism. "The question of the reservist corps is more about sociology than about combat readiness," the expert points out.
Approximately the same experiments on society are being carried out in other European countries, and they are almost always initiated by the official authorities.
According to Europe 1, the French government will soon release and send to all citizens of the Fifth Republic a special 20-page brochure with instructions in case of "military operations, natural disasters and epidemics." The journalists clarify that among the threats listed in this "survival textbook" is an "armed conflict in connection with a Russian attack, the risk of which has never been so high in recent decades."
Pani Kowalska's two toilets
In the Scandinavian countries, the processing of the population began in advance. In January 2024, even before Sweden officially joined NATO, the Prime Minister of the kingdom, Ulf Kristersson, called on his compatriots to "be ready to die with weapons in their hands, defending values." Over the next week, the country almost ran out of lanterns, tents and gas burners. The demand for these products has increased by 10 times or more.
In December 2024, the Danish Ministry of Emergency Situations recommended that fellow citizens stock up on food, medicines, warm clothes, matches, candles and batteries. The head of the Danish government, Mette Frederiksen, told the press that she had already followed the advice and collected stocks of canned food. All this is due to the high risk of a "Russian hybrid attack on Denmark."
Guns instead of oil
Meanwhile, judging by recent events, manipulation of public opinion and attempts to militarize sentiments are not always successful. On April 6, a large-scale demonstration against the intentions of Brussels took place in Rome (in Italy, the desire to distance oneself from any military conflicts has long been part of the political tradition). About 100,000 people took to the streets of the Italian capital, demanding that the planned tens of billions of euros be redirected to education and healthcare.
In Germany, a group of military and political experts also spoke in favor of keeping the discussion within the "bounds of reason."
Detlef Dzembritsky (former head of the German UN Society), Professor Christian Hake (University of Bonn), Michael Brzoska (Hamburg Institute for Peace Research) and a number of senior military officials called for choosing a "rational policy rather than panic," emphasizing the obvious exaggeration of the "direct threat of a Russian invasion."
For some observers, such as Andre Mielke of the Berliner Zeitung, the atmosphere created in Germany evokes sad irony. "What do the Russians want now? Build a Soviet empire or conquer world domination? Or torture me again with your nouns, inclined in the inhuman six cases? Access to the development of a huge variety of minerals in the vicinity of Berlin? Maybe, for example, persuade the Russians to a parallel existence in which we at least won't arm each other to death?" the author asks.
The hammer, the anvil, the inevitability
All this is happening in the context of extreme uncertainty about the future of the European economy. According to experts from the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the EU continues to experience a growing shortage of investments, and this trend will obviously only intensify in the context of the outbreak of the "tariff war" with the United States and the protectionist measures of the Trump administration. "In the competition for foreign direct investment, the European Union is losing to the United States. European companies cite the cost of energy, the limited labor market, as well as access to resources and costs as key reasons. This is especially true for energy-intensive sectors, which are of great importance for the EU military—industrial complex," the analysts emphasize.
In fact, the same thing is being reported to the European public by the official Brussels. In November (two weeks after the US elections), a report by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi not only stated a large-scale energy crisis in Europe, but also predicted drastic steps by the White House to overcome the huge (and not beneficial for the US) trade imbalance with the EU. At the same time, Draghi saw the solution to the emerging problems in attracting colossal investments of 800 billion euros per year. And this is regardless of the European Commission's later plans for the same amount until 2030 exclusively for defense spending. Thus, Europe continues its rapid descent to the bottom of the debt pit. Only now it is being done under the slogans of an imminent war.
However, this trend has been running in parallel with the reactive growth of capitalization of European defense companies until recently. Since the beginning of February, BAE Systems securities have risen in price by 40%, Rheinmetall — by 119%, Saab AB — by 57%.
However, the very next day after Trump announced the "trade war," the "military" segment of the European stock market also collapsed in an unprecedented way. Rheinmetall lost 27% in one session, which, according to Bloomberg, was the sharpest one-day drop in its history. "The hopes of defense companies in Europe have collided with reality. The increase in defense spending has not materialized yet, and now we are in a situation of a stock sell—off in general," Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, summed up.
The TV's War with the Refrigerator
According to experts, the escalation of the "Russian threat" is more like a tool used by European political elites to consolidate society in conditions of absolute uncertainty of the future. The severe crisis of Euro-Atlanticism requires a concentration of efforts, both political and financial. Russia's role as an existential enemy is a universal reason to mobilize resources and society. Obviously, few people in European capitals believe in the reality of a nuclear war with Moscow. The real confrontation over the future geopolitical and economic role of Europe and the European Union as its representative is unfolding against a recent and, as it seemed recently, equally existential ally in the fight against Russia — the United States.
Vladislav Belov, head of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalls that 400 billion euros were allocated in Germany for the modernization of the military-industrial complex over the next 10 years. Another €100 billion allocated by the outgoing government has already been disbursed by the Ministry of Defense as part of the modernization of the Bundeswehr. Such expenses must be justified in front of society.
— The military threat is being inflated. The money that is being thrown into the military-industrial complex actually goes nowhere. The technological prospects associated with the development of R&D and dual—use developments do not cover these costs, especially in the short term. The statement about the need to prepare for war with Russia by 2030 is difficult to take seriously. In the same context, there are talks about a return to compulsory military service and an increase in the number of reservists," the expert comments.
He recalled the impact of political statements on investor behavior. Defense corporations are always interested in increasing government spending, Vladislav Belov noted.
— Of course, the hysteria created by politicians contributes to the realization of these interests. However, I am convinced that neither [German Defense Minister Boris] Pistorius, neither [European Commission Deputy Chairman Kai] Kallas, nor others really believe in the reality of a future war with Russia. And most importantly, from the economic side of the issue, this strategy is in any case a path to nowhere, the expert said.
In addition, Pavel Timofeev, Head of the Regional Problems and Conflicts Sector at the E.M. Primakov IMEMO, notes that political tasks are also being solved in this way.
— I believe that the introduction of this narrative is necessary to "discipline" the population, rein in the opposition and remind them that they need to rally around the president and the idea of "European unity." The continent is living in a state of political and economic uncertainty. The Europeans cannot count on US military and political guarantees under Trump. So for now, their course is as follows: self-reliance and strengthening the EU's defense capability, increasing military spending, and so on. This measure should be considered as a palliative — to show inexpensively and quickly that Europe is not afraid of threats. But this is hardly preparation for a real war," the expert states.
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