Shell reason: The EU continues to arm itself against Russia

Strengthening the defense of the European Union is identical to strengthening the defense of NATO. This justification for new spending on weapons was given following a meeting of EU defense ministers in Warsaw on April 2. The basis for the discussion was the so-called EU White Paper on Defense, which calls Russia a "fundamental threat." The members of the association are ready to spend 800 billion euros over the next four years to counteract this "threat." This amount also includes further military assistance to Ukraine. Experts are confident that the Russian Federation will increase its military capabilities in proportion to the efforts of the West. About how Moscow views the militarization of Europe and whether there is a chance for normalization of relations — in the material of Izvestia.

The European Union is strengthening its defense

Following a meeting of EU defense ministers in Warsaw, the bloc's members agreed to strengthen its military potential to counter the "threat" emanating from Russia. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius stressed the need for European countries to confront Russia together, and not alone. "An attack on one of us is an attack on all of us," he said, apparently referring to NATO's Article 5 on collective defense.

In general, a special emphasis was placed on the role of NATO. Strengthening the EU's defense is identical to strengthening the defense of the North Atlantic Alliance, Polish Minister Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh insisted.

— Most of us are members of one alliance or another. More effective protection of the eastern border of the European Union means more reliable and effective protection of the eastern flank of NATO. There are no opposites here, and one should not contrast one with the other. One follows from the other. Without the investments of the European Union, NATO will become weaker," he said.

It is noteworthy that after the resumption of dialogue between Moscow and Washington, meetings of Kiev's allies take place almost every week. On March 31, Madrid hosted the Weimar+ summit with the participation of the Foreign Ministers of Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain and Poland, as well as representatives of the EU. In their final statement, they stressed their readiness to "adopt new sanctions against Russia" in order to ensure Ukraine "the best position for a just world."

The Russian Federation cannot but react to the militarization of Europe and will increase its armed forces proportionally, said Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Political and Military Conflicts. Nevertheless, according to him, normalization of relations between Russia and Europe will happen sooner or later. As Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, said earlier, Moscow has never been the initiator of spoiling relations with other states and, first of all, with its neighbors.

"President Putin has repeatedly said that our country is open to normalizing relations with those who wish it,— the Kremlin spokesman added.

The European Defense White Paper

Specifically, at the meeting in Warsaw, the implementation of the so—called "White Paper on European Defense - Readiness 2030" was discussed. It provides a justification for the bloc's rearmament plan, which Brussels wants to spend €800 billion on. Andrius Kubilius specified that this should be done within the next four years.

The document considers the Russian Federation as a "serious strategic threat on the battlefield" and allows the scenario of a "large high-intensity war" on the continent. "If Russia is allowed to achieve its goals in Ukraine, its territorial ambitions will go beyond its borders," the authors of the document believe.

According to their idea, Ukraine should receive at least 2 million large-caliber artillery ammunition annually from the EU and its members. In addition, Kiev's allies must provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with air defense systems, long-range missiles and UAVs. It is proposed to make the Ukrainian military-industrial complex part of the European one through direct purchases of weapons from Kiev, as well as to involve Ukraine in joint arms purchases on existing terms for EU countries. Finally, an "additional guarantee of security" will be the extension of EU military mobility corridors to Ukraine.

If we talk about the European Union itself, then of the indicated amount of €800 billion, most of it — €650 billion — should be donated by EU member states, and the remaining €150 billion will be allocated as a loan. The mechanism of the latter has not yet been agreed upon by the European Union. Hungary opposes it, believing that each country should contribute money from its budget to the general fund. According to the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the EU's policy has turned the community into a "toothless lion" who has nothing.

Orban is the only EU leader who did not sign the final statement of the European summit on Ukraine on March 20. In particular, it spoke about the readiness of the European Union to contribute to ensuring the security of Ukraine, supporting its ability to effectively defend itself.

At the same time, European countries assess the degree of their involvement in supporting Ukraine in different ways. The recent meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in Paris showed that only France, Great Britain and Sweden are ready to send their military to Ukraine in the event of an end to the conflict, while, for example, Italy and Finland categorically rejected such an opportunity.

The example of Finland is particularly significant. On March 20, its president, Alexander Stubb, said that the European strategy of containing Russia should be based on the "militarization of Ukraine to the teeth." At the same time, on April 1, he noted that Finland should "mentally prepare" for the fact that relations with Moscow at the political level will resume at some point. "We can't say exactly when. Nothing cancels the fact that Russia is and always will be Finland's neighbor," he added.

He clarified that the prospects for relations with the Russian Federation depend on the cessation of the conflict in Ukraine and the development of discussions on restoring relations in general.

How Moscow reacts to the militarization of Europe

There is a split in Europe regarding the scale of militarization, taking into account the peace settlement process in Ukraine initiated by Russia and the United States and the establishment of Russian-American relations, Vasily Klimov, researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security and associate professor at MGIMO, stated in an interview with Izvestia.

"In this situation, Russia obviously must act based on its interests, finding acceptable settlement formats in Ukraine, and gradually restoring dialogue on key security issues in Europe," the expert added.

Since, as the Warsaw meeting showed, the European Union considers strengthening its defense capability as strengthening NATO, it is appropriate to recall Vladimir Putin's recent speech at the Arctic Forum in Murmansk. The Head of state noted at the time: Russia is concerned about the fact that the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance increasingly designate the Far North as a springboard for possible conflicts and practice the use of troops in these conditions.

— Including with the help of our "new recruits" — Finland and Sweden, with whom, by the way, we had no problems at all until recently. They create it themselves for some reason. What for? It's completely unclear. Nevertheless, we will proceed from what we have, and we will respond to all this," the Russian leader added.

One of the retaliatory measures for the inclusion of Sweden and Finland in the alliance in 2023 was the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

"Every time NATO approaches our borders, [Russia takes measures] to rebalance the entire security architecture on the continent," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

Another response to the expansion of the alliance was the signing of a security guarantee agreement between Moscow and Minsk, which makes it possible to deploy the Russian Oreshnik complex on Belarusian territory. In November 2024, Vladimir Putin stressed that the testing of the "Hazel Tree" in combat conditions was a response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia.

The reaction to the statements of the West was also the adjustment of the nuclear doctrine. Finally, Moscow will consider the deployment of NATO military personnel in Ukraine as a threat to its security as part of a possible peacekeeping mission. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russia will not accept this "under any circumstances."