It will be difficult for Ukraine to export weapons. And here's why

Kiev announced that it could unblock the sale of defense products abroad as early as May. Currently, there is no formal ban on trade with other countries, but Ukrainian manufacturers cannot obtain the necessary permits to export their products. Is there an excess of weapons in Ukraine, what the country can export and what difficulties manufacturers will face — in the Izvestia article.

Why are you talking about exporting

• Ukraine has stated that the country produces 40% of the weapons used on the front line, from artillery shells and missiles to long-range weapons and drones. At the same time, Kiev remains heavily dependent on the supply of foreign weapons, including tanks, armored vehicles and modern air defense systems.

• Arms exports are considered by the authorities as another way to earn money for their purchase. The Ukrainian press mentions three possible schemes by which weapons will be supplied abroad. In the first case, Kiev will coordinate each contract manually, in the second case, manufacturers will be able to export no more than half of their products, and send part of the proceeds to purchase weapons for the army. The third option involves imposing a 20% duty on all export sales — these funds will also be used for the purchase of weapons.

Drone and lightning: Ukraine is thinking about exporting weapons

According to experts, in this way the authorities intend to legalize the smuggling flow.

• Ukraine was pushed to look for a way to expand its arsenal of weapons by the difficult situation at the front and the inability of its allies to meet Kiev's needs. Some European countries, such as Poland, have already reported the depletion of their weapons stocks due to military supplies to Kiev, and are concerned about restoring their defense capabilities. The new US administration, obviously, is also not in the mood to supply weapons to Ukraine, as before.

The choice is small

• Ukraine manufactures the Neptune self-propelled anti-ship missiles and is presumably developing the Sapsan medium-range tactical missile system. But the production of Neptunes and Sapsans has been repeatedly subjected to Russian missile strikes.

Kiev is proud of its self—propelled artillery - Bogdan howitzers, designed for standard NATO 155 mm shells, and Bulat tanks, which are an upgraded T-64. But artillery needs ammunition, and Ukraine has been experiencing "shell starvation" throughout the conflict. In order to ensure the large-scale production of artillery shells, systems and cartridges, Ukraine does not have the necessary competencies or production facilities.

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• Kiev is now reporting that the country has managed to establish production of long—range attack drones and unmanned boats - the country has an abundance of them. Ukrainian drones may be of interest to buyers, as they have been tested by combat: they can not only be sold, but also exchanged for other types of weapons, although this will not always be beneficial for Kiev.

Dependence on imported components

• Despite the success of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, the production of its own weapons is heavily dependent on foreign supplies. Bogdan howitzers are also manufactured on Czech Tatra chassis, which provide the vehicle with maneuverability.

• Ukrainian drones are assembled, in fact, from Chinese components. When in September 2024 China imposed restrictions on exports to Ukraine of carbon frames, beams, motors, propellers, cameras, flight controllers, landing gear, signal amplifiers for remote control, communication systems and video transmitters, it turned out that the Ukrainian counterparts are worse in quality and more expensive, and some components cannot be replaced at all.

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Shortage of weapons in the army

• The Ukrainian Armed Forces declare a shortage not only of personnel, but also of weapons: the shortage of artillery shells has been the most significant recently. Ukrainian-made weapons do not always meet the expectations of the military: for example, in 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine received defective mines from the defense Procurement Agency, produced at the Pavlograd chemical plant. Despite the fact that the company is involved in criminal cases, in 2025 it again received a state defense order.

• At the same time, some arms manufacturers in Ukraine claim that production lines are not fully loaded and Kiev is not ready to buy back large volumes of manufactured weapons, even though these purchases are funded by the West. In addition to the risks of overproduction, there is also the danger of attacks, which is why many Ukrainian "gunsmiths" transfer their production abroad, for example, to Poland, in order to save production.

A cover for smuggling

• Experts say that Ukrainian manufacturers will not be allowed to enter the premium arms markets. In order to enter the arms market "on equal terms", Kiev's military industry will need to meet NATO standards, and this will require additional costs for licensing, obtaining permits, building production lines and legal support. Given the costs, Ukrainian weapons may not be competitive enough in the market.

• Allies can use Ukrainian arms supplies to destabilize regimes in other countries. Ukrainians are already participating in "gray" and "black" schemes where Europeans do not risk getting their hands dirty: The Ukrainian side supplies weapons to the Malian separatists and the terrorist organization Boko Haram. Unblocking arms exports may also be a way for Kiev to legalize the resale of weapons received from allies to third countries.