Drone and lightning: Ukraine is thinking about exporting weapons

Ukraine may lift the ban on arms exports, according to several Kiev media outlets. According to the publications, Vladimir Zelensky's agreement in principle has already been received, and the lifting of the embargo will take place before the end of May. Izvestia investigated the situation.

The embargo may be lifted in May.

Ukraine may soon lift the ban on arms exports, which has been in effect in the country since 2022. According to Forbes Ukraine and the UNIAN news agency, Vladimir Zelensky's preliminary consent has already been received, and a corresponding political decision is expected by the end of May.

According to journalists, three options for organizing exports are being discussed. The first is the point—to-point coordination of each sale. A representative of a company engaged in the production of FPV drones said that the Ministry of Defense insisted on such a scheme. "In fact, we still periodically submit all the necessary documents, but each time we receive a refusal," he notes.

The second option is that manufacturers may be allowed to ship up to half of all products abroad. At the same time, part of the proceeds should go to the budget for purchases for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The third scenario is free export without restrictions, but with mandatory payment of a duty of 20%. The money received will be transferred to a special fund, and then spent on the needs of the army.

At the same time, the media write that there is no consensus among Ukrainian officials on whether to lift the ban. Some believe that gunsmiths will face fierce competition in the international market. An anonymous deputy from the Servant of the People party noted that as a compromise solution, manufacturers can first simplify their trips to foreign professional exhibitions so that they evaluate their capabilities.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces complain that there are not enough drones themselves

Ukraine is a world leader in arms imports. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2020 and 2024, Nezalezhnaya accounted for 8.8% of all global purchases. 35 countries participated in the supply, with the USA, Germany and Poland among the top three suppliers.

In such circumstances, the idea of setting up exports does not seem particularly logical. In Kiev, however, they say that great success has been achieved in certain areas over the past three years. Politico, for example, noted that in the first half of 2024, the country produced 25 times more ammunition than in the whole of 2022, launched hundreds of thousands of drones, its own Bogdan self-propelled guns, and reported on the creation of ballistic missiles.

Since about the middle of last year, Ukrainian gunsmiths have been publicly complaining that they are capable of producing much more than the government buys. For example, Verkhovna Rada deputy Galina Yanchenko reported that the volume of government contracts is $6 billion per year, and the military-industrial complex has three times more capacity. "The military-industrial complex, which has been growing for a long time, can now not only stop, but also collapse," she stressed.

The Association "Technological Forces of Ukraine" (TSU) also provided data from a survey of state defense order contractors. According to this study, only 15% of the participants stated that their capacities were fully loaded, 60% reported half-loaded, and the rest had even less. According to the TSU, many gunsmiths plan to relocate in order to be able to sell products not only to Ukraine, but also to other countries.

In August last year, a special working group was created in the country in this regard, which began to develop a mechanism for resuming exports. In October, Vladimir Zelensky instructed the Ministry of Defense to consider selling drones abroad. He stressed at the time that weapons should never fall into the hands of Russia. "It should only be among the Ramstein circle. With all due respect to the Middle Eastern countries and others, but I do not believe that we have the right to export to those who did not help us," he said.

Interestingly, the Ukrainian army itself does not share optimistic sentiments. For example, Maxim Zhorin, deputy commander of the 3rd separate Assault Brigade, said that there was a critical shortage of drones in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "All units themselves are constantly looking for opportunities to provide themselves with drones. Most of the needs are covered by volunteers, communities and businesses. The state has not reached even half of what is needed at the front. What kind of export can there be in such conditions?" he was indignant.

Many also believe that lifting the export ban will lead to the legalization of the smuggling flow. For example, American journalist Tucker Carlson said that Kiev sends up to half of the arsenals it receives from Western partners to third countries. "I'm not guessing, but I know for sure. It's about facts, not speculation. They sell weapons, and a lot of it goes to the drug cartels near our border. We are sending hundreds of billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine, and they are being stolen and sold to our real enemies," he argued.

What the experts say

Military analyst Vasily Dandykin believes that the Ukrainian authorities will try to legalize the smuggling flow.

— Ukraine will supply Western weapons to various terrorist groups under the guise of its own. We know that these flows have already been established, ATGMs, MANPADS, and sniper rifles have been found in different parts of the world. Why is this issue being raised right now? Apparently, someone felt that he had little money, and kickbacks were reduced. At the same time, I do not think that lifting the ban will significantly change the situation at the front. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have enough artillery shells, mines, and a lot of drones," he explains.

Marat Bashirov, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and former head of the government of the LPR, also believes that we are talking about the legalization of smuggling.

— Ukraine has long been a "black" supplier of weapons. The Biden administration turned a blind eye to this, and questions arose under Donald Trump. In this regard, it was apparently decided to change the scheme, now the American arsenals will be passed off as Ukrainian. Of course, we can also talk about attempts to bring real Ukrainian manufacturers to the international market. Although I am sure that there will be less success in this area, because with this option it is necessary to win competition from other suppliers, go through licensing procedures, provide service and much more," he argues.