The border setup: Pakistan is preparing for a military invasion by India

Pakistan is preparing for an invasion from India, while skirmishes on the border have been going on for several days. India makes no secret of its intention to retaliate against Pakistani terrorist groups. At the same time, foreign politicians are calling on the nuclear powers to engage in dialogue, but the expert community believes that the conflict is far from over. Whether India and Pakistan will be able to avoid escalation is in the Izvestia article.

What is happening on the border of India and Pakistan

Shots have been fired four nights in a row on the border of India and Pakistan in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir, representatives of the Indian army reported on the morning of April 28. Casualties have been avoided so far.

"On the night of April 27-28, Pakistani army posts opened unprovoked small arms fire on the territory of the line of control in the areas opposite Kupwara and Poonch districts. Indian troops responded quickly and effectively," the Indian Army said in a statement.

The situation in the region worsened on April 22, when a terrorist attack took place in the village of Pahalgam, which is located on the territory controlled by the Indian authorities. Armed militants attacked tourists in the Baysaran Valley, killing 25 Indian citizens and one Nepalese citizen, and injuring dozens more.

India blames the Pakistani authorities for the incident, although no public confirmation of Islamabad's involvement has been provided. The Resistance Front (TRF) claimed responsibility for the attack.

The Indian security services have already detained about 500 people for interrogation and searched about 1,000 houses in search of terrorists in Kashmir (explosions thundered in some houses during searches). According to the Indian police, at least two suspected terrorists have already been identified, both of them citizens of Pakistan.

In response to the attack, the Indian authorities imposed a number of restrictive measures, including the expulsion of Pakistani military attaches, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the immediate closure of the Attari land border crossing. From April 24 to April 28, at least 537 Pakistani citizens left India, including nine diplomats and officials. In the same period of time, 850 Indians, including 14 diplomats and officials, returned from Pakistan to India through the international border crossing in Punjab.

In addition, on the recommendation of the Indian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 16 Pakistani YouTube channels were blocked for spreading provocative content and false information about the Indian army and security agencies.

To the state of combat readiness: how New Delhi can respond to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam

And is it worth waiting for a large-scale escalation of the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan?

The Indian authorities also said they were considering launching a military "retaliation strike" against Pakistani terrorists from the country, the Indian Express newspaper reported, citing a senior source in the Indian government.

Given all that is happening, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said he believes India's military invasion of his country is inevitable. "We have strengthened our forces because it is necessary now. In such a situation, strategic decisions need to be made," he said. According to him, the country can use its nuclear arsenal only if there is a direct threat to its existence. At the same time, he previously stated that the conflict is unlikely to reach the point where the use of weapons of mass destruction is required.

Against this background, the Russian Embassy in India advised Russians to refrain from traveling to Jammu and Kashmir. On April 28, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko conveyed to Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar Moscow's readiness to help New Delhi in the fight against terrorism, and also expressed hope for a solution to the conflict through dialogue.

Options for a peaceful solution to the crisis

Clashes in the disputed territory have been taking place regularly since 1947. The conflict between India and Pakistan is based on the "refusal of Kashmiri self-determination," says Natasha Raheja, a political anthropologist at Cornell University. A long-term solution to the crisis, she said, could be the decision of the peoples themselves to determine the location of geographical borders.

Against the background of decisive actions by India, the Pakistani authorities are calling for preventing an escalation of tensions in South Asia, and also insist on conducting an impartial international investigation into the terrorist attack.

"Both countries (Pakistan and India. — Ed.) — nuclear powers. We cannot allow an escalation in South Asia. Rather, we need to work together to eradicate terrorism and develop economic cooperation in the region," Pakistani Minister of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal Choudhry told reporters.

Beijing also insists on an impartial investigation. The Chinese authorities support any initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions between the countries and advocate an objective investigation of the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, the Global Times reported on Monday, citing the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

The UN also called on the parties to show maximum restraint and resolve the issues peacefully.

Iran has already offered its mediation function, and Saudi Arabia is also trying to "prevent escalation."

— We don't need any external country to provide us with security. We will take care of our safety. But we need the support of everyone against terrorism in condemning terrorism and putting pressure on those who support terrorism," Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said, answering a question from Izvestia about seeking help from the SCO and Russia in particular in ensuring security after the terrorist attack.

Peaceful deportation: will India and Pakistan keep from starting a war

New Delhi and Islamabad expel citizens, close borders and airspace, there are reports of shootings at the border

Skirmishes on the border are likely to continue in the coming days, however, a serious escalation is unlikely, said Vladimir Sotnikov, a leading researcher at the Center for Central Asian Studies at the ISSA RAS.

— There will be no transition to nuclear threats. Skirmishes will continue mainly at the border. I don't think the crisis will last a year, but both sides are belligerent," the expert states.

The only option for a peaceful resolution of the conflict will be negotiations at the level of heads of state, Sotnikov emphasizes, but there are no prerequisites for their early meeting yet.

"However, they may appear in the future, because none of the countries, as it seems to me, is interested in having a major crisis and a full—scale war," says Sotnikov.

At the same time, according to the New York Times, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is actively seeking international support to justify possible military action against Pakistan. It is claimed that the focus of the international community on the conflict in Ukraine and the tension in the Gaza Strip are allegedly playing into India's hands.