Peaceful deportation: will India and Pakistan keep from starting a war
The SCO countries can contribute to the settlement of the conflict between India and Pakistan, which were on the verge of a full-scale war after the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, experts say. They are also confident that none of the parties is interested in full-scale hostilities, despite loud statements and aggressive measures. Nuclear deterrence remains a key factor. Russia, which has built friendly relations with both countries, could also play a constructive role in the settlement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already stated that he is ready to step up cooperation with Indian partners in the field of security. How the situation will develop after the terrorist attack is in the Izvestia article.
India and Pakistan on the brink of war
India and Pakistan actually found themselves on the verge of an armed clash after the terrorist attack that took place on April 22 in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir, in the Baysaran Valley. The terrorists opened fire on civilians and a group of tourists. As a result of the attack, 27 people were killed and at least 12 injured.
India blames the Pakistani authorities for the incident, as The Resistance Front (TRF) group claimed responsibility for the attack. It was formed in 2019 at the peak of the latest escalation of the situation in Kashmir, and the Indian authorities consider it an offshoot or cover for the Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Righteous, recognized as a terrorist and banned in Russia).
The group said on social media that the attack was a response to the influx of illegal immigrants who had caused "demographic changes" in the region. According to the Indian police, the identities of the two terrorists have already been established, both are citizens of Pakistan.
The international community condemned the terrorist attack. Vladimir Putin called it a brutal crime that cannot have any justification. The Russian leader stressed that he was ready to step up cooperation with Indian partners in the fight against all forms and manifestations of terrorism.
Immediately after the attack, India declared its readiness to take a number of harsh measures. On April 24, Indian authorities suspended the 60-year-old Indus River Treaty of 1960, thereby reducing the flow of water from the stream to Pakistan, which could lead to drought in the region. At the same time, the complete suspension of Pakistan's access to the Indus waters will take several years and will result in costs for India itself — solutions for storing and diverting the pent-up flows are needed. On the same day, the Pakistani authorities responded by closing the airspace for Indian airlines and the Wagah checkpoint.
The escalation has already moved to the diplomatic level. The Indian Foreign Ministry has completely suspended the issuance of visas to Pakistani citizens. All Pakistanis must leave India by April 27, and all previously issued visas will be cancelled. Probably, in anticipation of mirror measures, the agency ordered Indian citizens to leave the neighboring country as soon as possible. The Russian diplomatic mission in Islamabad also recommends refraining from visiting Pakistan.
In fact, the terrorist attack led India and Pakistan to potential military action. On April 25, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif announced on Sky News that his country was ready for a full-scale war with India, promising a "symmetrical response" in the event of an attack. Asif's statements in an interview with Al Jazeera are even more worrying.
— The international community should pay attention to this dangerous dispute, which could escalate into a nuclear standoff. Both countries are nuclear powers," he said.
Should we expect fighting between India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve the territorial conflict for decades — clashes in Kashmir have been taking place regularly since 1947.
Jammu and Kashmir is a state in Northern India that has disputed territories with Pakistan. The first Indo-Pakistani war of 1947-1948 ended with the partition of Kashmir along the UN-supervised Ceasefire Line, but the conflict remains unresolved to this day. Both countries maintain a military presence in the region, ignoring calls for a plebiscite.
According to Kirill Babayev, director of the ICSA RAS, the current aggravation is also temporary. Moreover, there are common tools for de—escalation - both countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose key tasks are precisely to counter terrorism, extremism and separatism.
— Neither Delhi nor Islamabad needs a full-scale conflict. Both countries are actively working in the SCO, and the organization's task is to maximize the involvement of India and Pakistan in joint projects in various fields, including the fight against terrorism. I think Russia, which has friendly relations with both countries, will be able to make efforts in this direction. The SCO mechanisms will be more in demand here than the mechanism of the UN Security Council, which is at an impasse due to the unconstructive position of European countries," Kirill Babayev said.
Following recent events, Pakistan has officially suspended all trade with India, including transit through third countries. Because of this, Islamabad may lose about $1 billion a year, which will certainly have a painful impact on the country's economy. That is, despite the loud statements of the authorities, Pakistan is obviously not interested in a real escalation of tension, said Rashid Wali Janjua, director of research at the Islamabad Institute for Political Studies (IPRI). At the same time, he notes that New Delhi is acting too aggressively, violating agreements.
— India's actions violate international law, and if India starts diverting water [from the Indus] in the future, it will cause serious damage to agriculture and food security in Pakistan. The shrill rhetoric of the Indian media indicates that the Indian government wants to put pressure on Pakistan," the expert said.
Against this background, one should not ignore the possibility of new collisions. This is not to say that escalation to the level of limited military action is inevitable, but it is not excluded, says the professor of the University. Jawaharlal Nehru in New Delhi by Ajay Dubey. The day before, Pakistani troops fired at Indian border posts on the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir, to which they received an "effective response," at least according to Indian media, citing sources.
— The SCO members must confront the challenges of cross-border terrorism. Collective pressure must be exerted on him. India would like more categorization in the field of terrorism and is ready to take diplomatic and economic steps for this," Ajay Dubey told Izvestia.
Interestingly, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance was on an official visit to India this week, and his arrival even caused some euphoria among the locals due to the Indian origin of his wife, Usha Vance.
If the Pakistani authorities really have some influence on the terrorists who committed crimes in Kashmir, then the time for the attack may have been chosen for a reason, suggested Atul Kohli, a professor of political science and international relations at Princeton University. One of the motives could be to demonstrate to the United States that the situation in Kashmir has not been resolved and India's claims to full control over the territories and security are questionable.
Ultimately, the situation remains tense, but still it is unlikely to lead to a full-scale war, at least because of the nuclear deterrence. Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons. In this regard, Rashid Wali Janjua believes that India is unlikely to resort to large-scale attacks, but may take some adventures at isolated Pakistani posts on the line of control in Kashmir.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
