On the brink of war: the causes of the conflict between India and Pakistan
On Friday, April 25, the Indian authorities decided to suspend the 1960 Indus River Treaty and cut off the supply of water from its stream to Pakistan. This step was a response to the terrorist attack that took place on April 22 in the Jammu and Kashmir region, in which New Delhi accuses the authorities of a neighboring state of involvement. The terrorist attack is the largest in recent years, with 26 victims. The situation quickly escalated, the countries expelled diplomats and broke a number of treaties. The world media writes that the threat of war between the two nuclear powers has increased significantly. For more information about the countries, their location, forces, and the causes of their conflict, see the Izvestia article.
India: location, population, army
The Republic of India is a country in South Asia, the second most populous in the world after China. According to the latest data, about 1.2 billion people live in the country. The total area of the state is 3.3 million square kilometers, which is almost four times more than Pakistan. Economically, India is also a very developed country: in 2025, according to IMF estimates, its gross domestic product at purchasing power parity (GDP by PPP) was in third place after China and the United States.
India borders Pakistan to the northwest, China, Nepal and Bhutan to the northeast, Bangladesh and Myanmar to the east. It has the union territory of Ladakh, which also borders Afghanistan (however, its nationality is disputed by Pakistan). According to the country's constitution, English and Hindi have the status of official languages, and 22 languages are recognized as official at the regional level.
According to the Total Military Power Rating (GFP), India ranks fourth among the strongest armies in the world (after the United States, Russia and China). This is largely due to significant defense spending, modernization, and the number of personnel. According to data for 2024, there are about 1.46 million military personnel in India.
Pakistan: where is it located, who borders it, the army
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a country in the northwestern part of the South Asian subcontinent. The total area is about 804 thousand square kilometers. The country borders India to the east, China to the northeast, Afghanistan to the northwest and Iran to the southwest. The country's population, according to data for 2023, is more than 240.6 million people. The official language is Urdu, although English is widely spoken at the official level, as well as in business correspondence.
There are about 650,000 troops in the armed forces of Pakistan. The country is ranked 12th in the GFP ranking. At the same time, Pakistan is economically much weaker than its neighbor: its economy is more than an order of magnitude different from India's, and GDP by PPP is in 26th place after Iran and Bangladesh.
India and Pakistan are nuclear powers
India and Pakistan are members of the so—called "nuclear club". Both countries have nuclear warheads in their stockpile. India conducted its first underground weapons test in 1974. The Indian defense doctrine prescribes the principle of "non-first use."
Pakistan first tested nuclear weapons on May 28 and 30, 1998, in response to another underground explosion by India 20 days earlier.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India had 172 nuclear warheads in 2024, while Pakistan had 170.
The escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan in April 2025, what happened
The conflict escalated due to the terrorist attack on April 22 in the north of India, in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Presumably, militants from the Kashmiri Resistance group shot dead tourists — 26 people died. India believes that this group is supported by Pakistan, while representatives of the movement have already claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that the dead were linked to the Indian special services.
Relations between India and Pakistan remain tense due to the ongoing territorial dispute over Kashmir, which has already led to several armed conflicts. Recall that when British India was divided in 1947, the principality of Jammu and Kashmir, whose population was predominantly Muslim, but whose ruler was a Hindu, was allowed to determine its own fate. The principality joined India, which caused the decades-long Indo-Pakistani conflict, which turned into a hot phase several times. Since 2019, Jammu and Kashmir has not had an autonomous status and is considered a union territory, which is directly governed by the federal authorities.
After the terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reacted quickly to the incident, saying that the country would punish every terrorist and their accomplices.
India has declared the advisers of the Pakistani Embassy in New Delhi on defense, naval and air forces persona non grata. In addition, within 48 hours, India promised to expel all Pakistani citizens who entered the country under the visa exemption system. The Indian authorities also announced the closure of the Attari checkpoint, and those Pakistanis who entered India through this checkpoint must leave the country by May 1.
The Indian authorities have already suspended the Indus River Treaty of 1960, thereby stopping the supply of water from the stream to Pakistan. As Maria Savishcheva, senior laboratory researcher at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted, this could significantly affect the Pakistani economy.
Pakistan, in turn, has imposed similar measures against India, while the country's leadership denies involvement in the terrorist attack.
"The Pakistani leader has already described India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters division treaty as an act of war, or at least an act of hostility, and, in turn, suspended another treaty, the Simla Agreement of 1972," the expert said.
The Simla Agreement is a 1972 treaty signed after the end of the Indo-Pakistani war. He established a control line that almost coincided with the 1949 ceasefire line. According to it, 60% of the territory of the former principality of Jammu and Kashmir remained under the control of India, 30% — under the control of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan region and the quasi-state entity of Azad Kashmir). By 1962, about 10% of the territory of the former principality was occupied by China (Aksaychin region). This division persists to this day. Thus, the treaty provided for the normalization of relations between the countries.
Should we expect an escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan, is it possible to use nuclear weapons
According to Maria Savishcheva, at the moment it is possible to repeat the scenario of 2019, when a terrorist act was also committed. At the moment, everyone is waiting to see if Narendra Modi will announce the start of a special operation to punish those responsible, and if so, what its format will be.
In February 2019, a suicide bomber of the Pakistani Islamist terrorist group Jaish-e-Muhammad rammed a police bus in Kashmir. More than 40 people died as a result of the terrorist attack. The Pakistani authorities have denied the accusations of involvement in the terrorist attack. Then the situation escalated into a series of clashes. The parties managed to come to an agreement on the cessation of hostilities, as well as joint actions to combat terrorism on March 22 of the same year.
— This time, Modi, of course, is not in a hurry, because last time he was pushed to make a quick decision by the upcoming elections and he had to show the electorate his determination as a political leader. Now, judging by Modi's resolute attitude, it can be assumed that some kind of response in the form of a special operation in Kashmir from India will follow," explains Maria Savishcheva.
At the same time, the expert noted that an escalation of the situation and its transition to a long-term conflict is unlikely. The use of nuclear weapons is also impossible, which is emphasized by their non-use in major conflicts of the 20th century and after the terrorist acts of the 21st century.
— Most likely, the parties will refrain from using nuclear weapons. But this may escalate into some kind of short-term response from India, including in the form of a special operation. However, it is unlikely that we will see how this will result in any serious medium-term conflict," the expert concludes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
