The pacified conflict: India and Pakistan are on the verge of war
India and Pakistan are on the brink of war. New Delhi has introduced a number of harsh measures after the massacre of tourists in the Jammu and Kashmir region, where 26 people were killed. The Indian authorities are expelling half of the Pakistani diplomats, cancelled the visas issued to the citizens of the country and closed the land border with the neighboring state. In Islamabad, they categorically deny their involvement in the crime and respond with mirror measures. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Clouds are gathering
India has declared the advisers of the Pakistani Embassy in New Delhi on defense, naval and air forces persona non grata, and the number of the diplomatic corps will be reduced from 55 to 30 people. According to the country's deputy Foreign Minister Vikram Misri, they must leave the country within a week, and all Pakistani citizens who entered India under the visa exemption system will be expelled within 48 hours.
In addition, the Indian authorities will close the Attari checkpoint between the two countries. Pakistani citizens who entered through this checkpoint must leave the country by May 1.
On April 22, the largest terrorist attack in recent years took place in northern India, in Jammu and Kashmir. Allegedly, six militants from the Kashmir Resistance group, which India believes is supported by Pakistan, shot tourists on a trail in the Baysaran Valley. As a result, 26 people were killed, including two foreigners from Nepal and the UAE.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was in Saudi Arabia at the time, cut short his visit and immediately returned to New Delhi, where he held an emergency meeting with ministers and security officials.
"India will punish every terrorist and their accomplices. Terrorism will not go unpunished. We will make every effort to ensure the triumph of justice," said the head of the Indian government.
Tourists who were in Kashmir at the time began to leave the area in a hurry.
According to Indian media, there has not been such a terrorist attack since the mass shooting in Mumbai in 2008. Before that, the predominantly Muslim Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir had been rocked by terrorist attacks more than once. However, against the background of the weakening of the local insurgency, the area began to attract more and more tourists. In 2024, it was visited by over 23 million people.
The Kashmiri Resistance group, which claimed responsibility for the attack, said on social media that the dead "were linked to the Indian special services." They called the attack an act of retaliation for the fact that serious demographic changes had taken place in Jammu and Kashmir and "85,000 outsiders settled there," which means the country's Hindu citizens.
Mirror steps
Six years ago, the Indian authorities abolished article 370 of the Constitution, which referred to the special status of Kashmir. This provision gave its residents benefits when they held administrative positions within the state at that time, and also limited the rights of residents of other regions to purchase real estate on its territory.
In New Delhi, the outrage was not caused by the privileges of Kashmir, which was the only Indian state to have its own constitution, but by the fact that its leadership, according to the Indian authorities, was flirting with pro-Pakistani supporters of Kashmir's independence instead of fighting separatism.
As a result, in 2019, the special status of Kashmir was abolished, and the state itself was divided into two territories of federal subordination — Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir, and Indians received the right to buy land there and get a job. Since then, it seemed that the situation in the state had returned to normal.
New Delhi immediately suspected Pakistan of involvement in the terrorist attack, which complicated the already difficult relations between neighboring countries. Islamabad has openly provided support to the insurgents in Kashmir in the past, but it was only moral and diplomatic.
The Pakistani authorities deny any involvement in the terrorist attack, calling the measures imposed by New Delhi unilateral, unfair, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible, devoid of any legal value, and respond in a mirror manner.
Pakistan has closed its airspace to India. In addition, at a meeting of the country's Security Council, it was decided to suspend trade with New Delhi.
Against this background, the Indian authorities announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. Pakistan said it would consider any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to the Islamic Republic an act of war.
What do the experts think
Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean Region Group at the IMEMO Center for Asia-Pacific Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the terrorist attack had seriously strained relations between the two countries.
— India terminated the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled the Pakistani military attache, reduced the size of the embassy, and canceled certain visas. The Pakistanis reacted in a mirror manner, and they also closed their airspace. Both sides flex their muscles and demonstrate a willingness to strike back. There will be no nuclear war, and most likely there will be no conventional conflict, but local attacks on militant training camps in Pakistani Kashmir are possible," the expert said.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies, also notes how the situation between India and Pakistan is rapidly heating up.
— The seriousness of the situation is given by the fact that India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. An armed conflict between them, under certain conditions, can escalate into an exchange of nuclear strikes. How can we not remember that on April 21, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance and his family arrived in India for a four-day visit," the expert points out.
She added that tariffs, future major military and trade contracts between the two countries are on the agenda of the visit.
— Is it accidental that the date of the terrorist attack coincided with Vance's visit? Unlikely. However, the answer to the question of which of the external players played into the escalation remains unclear. Unless, of course, you remember the "kind words" of the British, who at one time "masterfully" divided British India. On the other hand, the Trump administration can offer its own "peace plan" here. The main question is how effective it will be," the analyst summed up.
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