To the state of combat readiness: how New Delhi can respond to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam

A de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan is possible after a "retaliatory strike" from New Delhi, according to the expert community. For several nights in a row, shootings continue on the border of India and Pakistan after April 22, 26 people became victims of a terrorist attack in the city of Pahalgam controlled by the Indian authorities. Despite the fact that Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif says his country will not attack its neighbor first, India has already conducted naval exercises to demonstrate its combat readiness. What kind of development to expect from the conflict between the two nuclear powers is in the Izvestia article.

What is happening on the border of India and Pakistan

The situation on the border of India and Pakistan in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir remains explosive. The night of April 27 was the third time that gunfire continued on the Indo-Pakistani line of control. According to Indian media, the shooting took place in the areas of Tutmari Gali and Rampur.

There are videos on social media showing Pakistan pulling heavy artillery and self-propelled howitzers to the border. The Indian Navy, in turn, reported on conducting "successful anti-ship firing" in the Arabian Sea to demonstrate the readiness of crews, systems and platforms to launch long-range precision strikes.

Amid rising tensions, the Russian Embassy in India has advised Russians to refrain from traveling to Jammu and Kashmir. Earlier, the Russian diplomatic mission in Islamabad urged fellow citizens not to travel to Pakistan "until the situation stabilizes."

A prerequisite for the aggravation of relations between India and Pakistan was the terrorist attack in the city of Pahalgam on April 22. The settlement is located on the territory controlled by the Indian authorities. On that day, armed militants attacked tourists who were horseback riding in the Baysaran Valley. As a result, 26 people were killed (25 Indian citizens and one Nepalese citizen), and dozens more were injured earlier.

India blames the Pakistani authorities for the incident, as The Resistance Front (TRF) group claimed responsibility for the attack. It was formed in 2019 at the peak of another escalation of the situation in Kashmir, and the Indian authorities consider it an offshoot or cover for the Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Righteous, recognized as a terrorist and banned in Russia). According to the Indian police, the identities of the two terrorists have already been established, both are citizens of Pakistan.

Immediately after the attack, India declared its readiness to take a number of harsh measures. On April 24, the country's authorities suspended the 60-year-old Indus River treaty of 1960, reducing the supply of water to Pakistan, which could lead to drought in the region. In response, the Pakistani authorities closed the airspace for Indian airlines and the Wagah checkpoint. In addition, the Indian authorities ordered the immediate suspension of the issuance of visas to Pakistanis, and those already issued were canceled on April 27. The ANI agency, citing its sources, reported that the Indian Interior Ministry is calling on the heads of the country's states to expel all Pakistani citizens to their homeland.

The Pakistani National Security Committee, in turn, said that Islamabad was suspending all trade with India and closing its airspace to its airlines. The Pakistani authorities strongly deny their involvement in the conflict, and India has not provided sufficient evidence of the neighboring country's involvement in the incident in the five days since the attack.

Prospects for India's military response

In the near future, tensions between India and Pakistan will continue, said Alexey Kupriyanov, Head of the Primakov Institute for the Indian Ocean Region at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— With a high degree of probability, heavier weapons will be slowly used. Most likely, it will be artillery or mortars, or both at the same time. The exchange of fire from light weapons will continue, but without any additional actual changes and border crossings. There will be no military operations by serious units," he told Izvestia.

According to the analyst, India is likely to launch a "retaliatory strike," but how and when it will be delivered remains unclear. By the way, the Indian Express newspaper previously wrote about plans to make a similar strike.

— Perhaps it will be drones, guided bombs. And strikes are likely to be carried out on militant training camps," the expert believes. — Everything will calm down when each side can interpret what happened as their success.

In his Sunday radio address, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam "reflects the disappointment of those who patronize terrorism, it demonstrates their cowardice." At the same time, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that Pakistan would not launch military actions against India if the situation did not escalate on its part.

"We have no intention of initiating any action, but if there is any action [from India], then there will be a reaction, and the reaction will correspond to the action," he said.

However, it is not clear what this armed conflict might look like. According to the Global Fire Power rating, which evaluates the defense capabilities of countries around the world, India's military expenditures amount to $75 billion, which is 10 times higher than Pakistan's defense budget ($7.64 billion). A significant advantage of New Delhi is also observed in the number of personnel of the armed forces: 1.45 million troops against 654 thousand in Islamabad. In addition, India has much more aircraft and tanks.

In terms of technical equipment, the Pakistani army surpasses the Indian army in only two indicators: the number of self-propelled artillery systems and rocket launchers. At the same time, the nuclear arsenals of the countries are quite comparable.: According to open sources, India has 180 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 170.

However, the lack of modern technology may deter New Delhi from escalation, Western analysts say. So, in 2018, a parliamentary report classified 68% of Indian equipment as old, 24% as modern and only 8% as the latest. Five years later, in an updated report, military officials admitted that there had been no major changes, but the share of the latest equipment had doubled.

Ways of peaceful settlement of the Indo-Pakistani conflict

The territorial conflict between India and Pakistan has not been resolved for decades — clashes in Kashmir have been taking place regularly since 1947.

It is likely that the parties will choose a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Neighboring countries, in particular, urge them to do this. So, Tehran has already offered mediation services to find ways out of the crisis. The situation in China is also being monitored: Pakistani Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar, in a telephone conversation with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, said that Islamabad has always resolutely fought terrorism and opposed actions that could lead to escalation.

"Pakistan intends to monitor and manage the situation maturely, and will also maintain cooperation with China and the international community," he said.

However, Pakistanis, as a weaker party, regularly appeal to third countries, Alexey Kupriyanov noted.

— Although Pakistan previously announced that it reserves the right to suspend the 1972 Simla Agreement, which implies that bilateral relations are resolved by two sides without involving a third, India is not going to suspend it yet. At least, she is not interested in any mediation, and there is no need for it either," the analyst believes.

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif assured that Pakistan is open to any neutral international investigation into the terrorist attack in Pahalgam. However, according to the analyst, no country has leverage over Islamabad and is unable to guarantee India's security. Since the terrorist attack, Narendra Modi has gained the support of major political players. In a telephone conversation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed solidarity with New Delhi, condemned the terrorist attack in the United States, and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed condolences.

Most likely, the opponents will be able to find a solution to the crisis on a bilateral basis, suggested Alexey Kupriyanov. He recalled that last time, in March 2019, India and Pakistan managed to resolve another escalation after Islamabad handed over to New Delhi the Indian pilot Abhinandan Vartaman, whose plane was shot down over the Pakistani part of Kashmir. Then, six years ago, Indian aircraft attacked the camp of the Jaish-e-Muhammad group, which claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack that killed 45 people.