A scimitar in the back: why the "Turkic world" project is failing in Central Asia
A serious split has emerged in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The Central Asian members of this structure signed a declaration condemning the creation of a pro-Turkish Northern Cyprus. In addition, these republics began to establish diplomatic relations with the Greek part of Cyprus, which is part of the European Union. In this regard, Ankara started talking about the collapse of Turkic unity. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
With an eye to the UN
In early April, the first ever EU–Central Asia summit was held in Samarkand. Following the event, the participants adopted a joint declaration. The document, among other things, emphasizes that the signatories support the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, including remaining committed to UN Security Council resolutions 541 and 550, which condemn the creation of the independent Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
Shortly before this summit, the Central Asian countries also began to establish diplomatic relations with the Greek part of Cyprus, which is recognized by the international community as an independent state, but is in difficult relations with Ankara. For the first time in history, Uzbekistan appointed its ambassador to the island in December, while Kazakhstan did so in January. In March, the credentials were presented to the President of Cyprus by a representative of Turkmenistan.
All this is an obvious and painful blow to Ankara's interests. Turkey was and remains the only country that recognized the independence of the TRNC, and still largely ensures its economic survival and lobbies for its interests in the international arena. A lot has been done in recent years, including to establish links between Central Asian countries and Northern Cyprus. For example, in 2022, Turkey ensured that the TRNC received observer status in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
Ankara did not hide its irritation after the incident. The deputy chairman of the ruling Justice and Development Party, Kurshad Zorlu, held a meeting with the ambassadors of the Central Asian countries, which looked like a "carpet challenge." During the event, the politician called the Cyprus part of the joint statement with the EU unacceptable. According to Turkish press reports, Zorlu called for maintaining the unity of the Turkic-speaking countries and being careful about issues on the regional agenda.
European Union-Central Asia Summit in Samarkand
The authorities of Northern Cyprus are also showing their disappointment. The President of the TRNC, Ersin Tatar, said that the declaration by the EU and the Central Asian states would lead to additional isolation of the Turkish Cypriots. Azerbaijan, which is considered Ankara's closest ally in the post-Soviet space, has also developed rapid activity against this background. President Ilham Aliyev said in mid-April that Baku was doing everything possible to ensure that Northern Cyprus could "preserve its state." He also personally met with Ersin Tatar, and the foreign ministers also held talks.
Lyra without peace
Turkey is doing a lot to promote its interests in Central Asia. The Organization of Turkic States (OTG) has become the main instrument in this regard. The structure includes Turkey itself, Azerbaijan, as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan participates in the work as an observer.
Ankara is making the most efforts to promote its humanitarian agenda. Numerous scientific research projects are conducted under the auspices of the OTG, Turkological forums are held, publishing activities have been established, and a unified media platform has been created. Among the main achievements is the development of a unified Turkic alphabet, which was completed in September last year. Turkish cartographers are also promoting the idea of creating a "unified map of the Turkic world."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the 10th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Astana.
A lot of attention is paid to the educational sphere. An international Turkic academy has been opened in Astana, and a Turkic university is being established in Tashkent. The study of common Turkic history and culture is being introduced in schools, and standardized textbooks on these subjects have been developed since 2022. It is characteristic that in Turkey itself, since September last year, the term "Central Asia" has been removed from the school curriculum, and the region has instead been called Turkestan.
Much is also being done to unify the religious sphere. Since 2022, the Council of Muftis has been operating within the framework of the OTG, and its fifth meeting was held in Astana last October. The main topic was the discussion of the spiritual legacy of the medieval preacher Ahmed Yasawi, who played an important role in spreading Islam among the Turkic tribes. In addition, a Fatwa Committee has been set up to address the timing of religious holidays.
There is quite a lot of talk in Turkey about the unity of the "Turkic world", the concept of one nation living in several states is put forward. "We are not only united with our dear Azerbaijan, our hearts beat together with all our Turkic brothers in other countries," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasized. Ankara also likes to talk about the fact that the OTG will definitely become the dominant force in the space from the Balkans to the Chinese Wall.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the summit of the Organization of Turkic States at the Yntymak Ordo State Residence in Bishkek.
The problem for Turkey, however, is that its economic capabilities do not match its political ambitions. Ankara cannot provide such assistance to the Central Asian countries that would allow them to dictate their will. Moreover, Turkey itself has been living in a permanent economic crisis for the past few years. The key rate of the Central Bank of the country is now at 46%, inflation last year was 44%, prices have been rising by 41% annually on average over the past five years, and the Turkish lira is breaking records.
In such circumstances, Turkish influence is severely limited. It is known that during the EU–Central Asia summit, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the allocation of a €12 billion investment package to the countries of the region. This significantly exceeds all Ankara's programs in this area. Apparently, in order to receive this money, the leaders of the Turkic-speaking countries agreed to take steps towards Cyprus, which is part of the EU.
What the experts say
Andrey Grozin, head of the Central Asia Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, believes that in this case everything depends on money.
— Central Asian leaders are demanding serious funding, no one is going to do something for nothing. The Europeans promise 12 billion. There are also questions about this amount: it is unlikely that it will be transferred for beautiful eyes, which means that you will have to account for it somehow. But at least this is a conversation that is beneficial for the countries of the region. The Turks themselves seem to have believed in their talk about a thousand-year friendship and a common Turkic destiny and decided that this was enough to advance their interests. But that's not how it works, no one will lift a finger for free, and Ankara doesn't have comparable money," he emphasizes.
Alexander Knyazev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, says that the non-recognition of Northern Cyprus by Central Asian countries is quite logical.
— We know that there are two mutually exclusive principles in international law — the right of nations to self-determination and the territorial integrity of States. In Central Asia, the second approach is dogmatized, where it is believed that it avoids conflict and controversial situations. It has long been known that Turkey made a big mistake when it insisted on connecting Northern Cyprus to the OTG. As a result, Ankara is now in an awkward position," he explains.
The expert adds that the Organization of Turkic States will nevertheless continue to function.
— I do not think that this structure will fall apart, they will probably continue to work somehow. After all, this is President Erdogan's favorite brainchild. At the same time, I would recommend avoiding excessive alarmism about Turkey's activities in the region. Ankara does not have the resources to oust Russia and China, it will always be a kind of complement. OTG will remain a second—tier organization, losing out to both the Russian initiatives of the EAEU and the CSTO, and the broader Shanghai Cooperation Organization," says Knyazev.
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