European pro-EU leaders have stepped up diplomatic efforts to bring Turkey into the union's orbit. The meeting between Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his counterpart Recep Erdogan had no time to end when German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz called for Ankara's invitation to the EU summit to be held on March 20 and 21 in Brussels. What caused the sudden activity of the Europeans and what Turkey expects to get from them, Izvestia reports.
Weapons first
The Brussels summit will be the fourth high-level meeting between representatives of the European Union and Turkey in the last three months. On December 17, 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Ankara, and on February 5, Turkish President Erdogan met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. A month later, the Turkish leader was among the participants of an emergency summit in London, following which he called for establishing "European security" together with Turkey, and also spoke in favor of Ankara's participation in EU defense and financial assistance programs for Ukraine.
European Leaders' Summit in London
According to the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, the key topics of discussion at the upcoming summit will be energy, investments and optimization of bureaucratic processes. In the context of a systemic budget deficit, record energy prices, and very limited opportunities to attract investment and loans, Turkey's presence in the EU, according to many, would be not only relevant, but also desirable. In addition, the trade and political confrontation that has begun in the United States requires the consolidation of political and economic assets. In this regard, Scholz stressed the importance of including not only EU member states in the discussion, but also other partners on the continent: Norway, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
Another group of issues that are going to be discussed at the summit concerns strengthening Europe's defense potential. According to experts, the main problem of Ursula von der Leyen's 800-billion-dollar plan to remilitarize the Union is the lack of funds and capacity to expand production. In this sense, Turkey has something to offer Brussels, says Grigory Lukyanov, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the National University of Turkey.
— Turkey has always been interested in localizing European defense technologies, and unlike Europe, it is able to build military factories and supply them with labor. The Turkish army is both numerous and highly combat—ready with a certain freedom of action and has capabilities on three continents," the expert points out.
Donald Tusk arrives at a press conference in Ankara, March 12, 2025.
Last Wednesday, March 12, Donald Tusk arrived in Ankara. At the meeting, Tayyip Erdogan stressed that Turkey and Poland command "the two largest ground forces in NATO and Europe and are key allies on the eastern and southern flanks of the alliance." This observation is all the more justified given the nationalization and restructuring of the defense industry carried out by the Turkish government. In addition, as noted by orientalist Yuri Mavashev, Ankara has made great strides in terms of gaining technological and industrial independence from the United States. In other words, she did something that Europe doesn't do very well.
— The Turkish military-industrial complex was not only nationalized, but also diversified in order to gain independence from the United States. On the other hand, the role of Great Britain is great. For example, optics for drones have long been supplied by a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, Canada. Connections with London are not advertised, but, in fact, they are not hidden. A pro-British axis was formed along with Pakistan and Azerbaijan. Scholz's statements, of course, are no coincidence, just as it is no coincidence that Turkey is mentioned along with Great Britain. This, in turn, cannot but strain Americans," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov adds that against the background of the crisis in relations with Washington, the EU simply has no alternatives in the light of the declared plans. And Turkey looks like a more than suitable option.
— Against the background of difficulties with the United States, Europe is interested in supporting a state with a large combat-ready army, and Turkey seems to be, in fact, the only acceptable option. The EU, of course, is interested in developing relevant ties, especially since Turkey is actively developing its military—industrial complex: its weapons are already being supplied to Qatar, Oman, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries," Semenov notes.
He stands in the doorway and waits
Although Turkey has not yet become a member of the EU (and the organizations that preceded it), despite all the efforts made since 1987, its legislation already largely meets the legal requirements of the EU. The figures of trade turnover also indicate the highest possible level of economic cooperation. In 2024, it amounted to $216 billion, rising by another 4%.
On the other hand, since 1999, when the European Council recognized Turkey as a candidate country, the balance of power on the continent has changed significantly. Now Ankara can claim a much more serious role in European affairs, and its failed accession to the EU is completely uncritical for it, Yuri Mavashev admits.
— When Erdogan and [Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan] Fidan talk about their desire to join the EU, this does not mean resentment in case of refusal. Ankara is quite satisfied with the current situation, since no one is trying to limit its sovereignty, the expert emphasizes.
Moreover, the Turkish president seems to be aware of the "sudden" interest of his European colleagues in cooperation and is playing along with this process in every possible way. In late February, he declared that "liberal democracy, which was considered the most attractive ideology of the last century, is experiencing a serious crisis" and that "extreme right-wing demagogues" are taking its place. In this regard, the EU needs a "new lifeline", and "only Turkey" can help the European community in this.
According to the American edition of National Review, Erdogan thus demonstrates that this time the "sick man of Europe" is Europe itself.
Chairs and money
It is noteworthy that by stepping up cooperation with Brussels, Ankara is significantly not choosing a side in the US-European confrontation. On March 16, Erdogan had a telephone conversation with Donald Trump. The Turkish president again asked his American counterpart (before that, he had made a similar request to Joe Biden last November) to lift sanctions for the purchase of Russian S-400 systems, return Ankara to the F-35 development program and approve the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. In addition, the issue of cooperation in Syria, where Turkish interests directly clash with American ones, was discussed.
The exact same formula applies to Russia, with which, despite the well-known contradictions on a number of issues, a strategic partnership has been formed in the energy sector.
Erdogan does not want to abandon the "different chairs" strategy, receiving dividends from all counterparties, Grigory Lukyanov notes.
— This means being useful for Europe, for the United States, and even for Russia. Ankara does not want to lose profits from cooperation with Moscow. Although the resulting energy dependence on it cannot but frighten the Turkish political elites. For each counterparty, Erdogan will present his own "Image of the Future", as effective as possible. His main geopolitical goal is to turn Turkey into a regional power with global capabilities, in which everyone is interested," Lukyanov points out.
At the same time, fruitful foreign policy activity does not solve domestic economic problems, which in the case of Turkey are often chronic. And, as experts note, in this sense, the disposition looks like the opposite of what has developed in the field of security. Moreover, the situation of a century ago is repeating itself, when the young Turkish Republic was in desperate need of Western technologies during the economic crisis. Thus, the Erdogan government is ready to use its advantages in strategic relations with the EU in exchange for European assistance in industrial restructuring, Grigory Lukyanov points out. As the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes, we are talking about the migration issue, security and energy issues. And while maintaining the current geopolitical situation, Turkish positions look very promising for the European Union.
— The situation in the Turkish economy is very sad from a strategic point of view. It is associated with the outflow of highly skilled educated labor, stagnation in certain segments, and, of course, monetary policy. The situation was stabilized only thanks to huge injections provided through cooperation with Russia (food exports) and the Gulf countries (energy). Nevertheless, Turkey has become a major regional energy hub. It dominates the eastern Mediterranean, accumulating flows from Russia, the Middle East and North Africa and can provide supplies to Europe. Let's not forget about Turkey's political influence in the Black Sea region, including Transcaucasia," the expert reminds.
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