Not very nice: The EU is trying to strengthen its influence in Central Asia
The European Union's attempts to strengthen itself in Central Asia can hardly be called successful, the interviewed experts told Izvestia. However, the EU has indeed noticeably stepped up attempts to strengthen its influence in the region, including to oust Russia and China from the region. For example, the EU–Central Asia summit will be held in Samarkand from April 3 to 4. For the first time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will take part in it. On the eve of the meeting, Brussels decided to allocate €10 million to Tajikistan for education, and €3 million to Kazakhstan for the extraction of raw materials. At the same time, Russia remains a key partner of all Central Asian republics. About why it is difficult for the EU to get closer to Central Asia and what cooperation with Moscow means for this region is in the Izvestia article.
Why is the European Union interested in Central Asian countries
The new composition of the European Commission (EC), formed at the end of last year, seems to be hoping to strengthen Europe's influence in Central Asia (CA). EC President Ursula von der Leyen will take part in the EU–Central Asia summit for the first time, which will be held on April 3-4 in Samarkand. Besides her, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, will also arrive in Uzbekistan. The summit will be the third in a row: before that, meetings of the EU and the Central Asian republics were held in 2022 and 2023 in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, respectively.
— The two previous meetings were meetings of leaders, in which only the president of the European Council participated on behalf of the EU (then it was Charles Michel), — the press service of the summit noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
The summit will be chaired by President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev with the participation of the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
Preparations for the visit of the EU leadership to Samarkand in Brussels began in advance. From March 12 to March 18, European Commissioner Josef Sikela toured Central Asia. In particular, he managed to conclude agreements on satellite Internet for Central Asia (TEI Digital Connectivity), which involve connecting remote regions of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the Network. The 20th EU-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting was held in Ashgabat on March 27.
On March 13, in Astana, the parties signed a contract worth €3 million for cooperation in the field of critical raw materials. In Tajikistan, the EU announced the allocation of €10 million for the development of education until 2030.
After the start of the CER and Europe's abandonment of Russian energy resources, Central Asia, with its rich natural resources, acquired a key role for the EU.
The European Union focuses on transport, logistics and energy programs that can link the five countries of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) to the European system. So, in the autumn of 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on an official visit. One of the main topics on the agenda was energy, in particular the supply of Kazakh uranium to France. Following Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Central Asia for the first time a year later.
Brussels is seeking to weaken trade and economic ties between Central Asian countries and Russia in order to enhance the effect of sanctions. In 2024, it was reported that Brussels intends to attract up to €10 billion in investments to create a transport corridor from Central Asia to Europe through Transcaucasia and Turkey, bypassing the Russian Federation. But they stressed that so far the union is ready to allocate only €2.97 billion in the form of two loans for this. Another interest of the European Union is access to the markets of Central Asia.
— In this context, the EU's Global Gateway initiative, launched in 2021 as an alternative to China's Belt and Road initiative, plays an important role. The visit of the European Commissioner and the upcoming summit in Samarkand are a continuation of work within the framework of this initiative aimed at strengthening transport, digital and energy connectivity with the region," Daria Saprynskaya, researcher at the ISAA of Lomonosov Moscow State University, told Izvestia.
Global Gateway is an EU program aimed at concluding long—term contracts for the implementation of infrastructure and digital projects in Asia and Africa at the expense of the European Union. Earlier, the former head of the European Union's foreign policy service, Josep Borrell, admitted that this is a tool aimed at strengthening the influence of Russia and China.
Cooperation between Russia and Central Asia
At the same time, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan traditionally have close economic ties with Russia. Cooperation takes place in both bilateral and multilateral formats, such as the EAEU and the CIS. The first Russia-Central Asia summit was held in October 2022. Innoprom exhibition is held annually in Uzbekistan, which is considered the main Russian trade and industrial platform. So the EU's attempts to strengthen itself in this region can hardly be called successful, says Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector at the IMEMO RAS.
— Attempts are quite limited, because the European Union is probably an important economic partner only for Kazakhstan. For others, geographical remoteness, sufficient business passivity towards the region, a generally weak understanding of its main tasks and development goals, as well as to some extent the selfishness of European companies limit the EU's ability to become a full-fledged and influential actor in the region," he told Izvestia.
Russia is much more widely represented in Central Asia, so we should not expect a sharp reorientation of the region towards Europe following the upcoming summit in Samarkand, Daria Saprynskaya is sure.
The main trading partners of the Central Asian countries are China and Russia. By the end of 2024, China's trade turnover with the countries of the region amounted to $94.82 billion. As for Russia, it accounts for over 30% of the total foreign trade of the Central Asian states. To a large extent, this is achieved through the transition to mutual settlements in national currencies. Currently, the volume of such settlements with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exceeds 80% and continues to grow.
Despite Western sanctions, the volume of trade turnover between Russia and Central Asian countries is increasing. Moscow retains its position as the main trading partner of the Central Asian countries in the field of food products, mineral and raw materials, and in the metallurgical and chemical industries.
In 2022-2023, bilateral agreements were concluded to deepen economic cooperation with the countries of the region. And in November 2023, a three-year cooperation plan was signed between Russia and Kazakhstan. In May 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a visit to Uzbekistan, during which more than 30 bilateral documents were signed.
According to data for 2024, about 24 thousand companies with Russian capital operate in Central Asian countries. The volume of accumulated investments exceeded $38 billion. The Russian Federation is also localizing the production of its companies in the countries of the region. For example, two Uzbek-Russian technoparks, Chirchik and Jizzakh, are already operating in Uzbekistan. It was reported that the republic plans to launch new industrial parks created with the support of Russia.
One of the key areas is the development of transport corridors, including the North—South Transport Corridor, which involves the creation of a system of transport corridors from the Indian Ocean to Europe. The parties are also currently developing a project for the development of the Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan–Turkmenistan–Russia corridor using transit through the Caspian Sea. It will allow unhindered delivery of goods to the ports of Astrakhan and Makhachkala.
At the same time, there has been a tendency in Central Asia in recent years to strengthen internal ties. Over the past five years, intraregional trade has grown by $11 billion.
The parties are coming to a solution to internal disagreements that have lasted for decades: one of the most significant events in recent years has been the final approval of the state border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
It is precisely because of the growing trend of cohesion within the region and independence that the governments of the Central Asian countries are trying not to lose themselves in a multi-vector balance. Now, Daria Saprynskaya summarized, internal cohesion in the region creates a very cautious attitude towards European initiatives.
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