Which major global companies will be most affected by Trump's tariffs. Analysis
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a new forecast for global trade growth this year. The previous estimate suggested an increase of 3%. However, now we are talking about a 0.2% reduction. Izvestia investigated how US President Donald Trump's duties on American manufacturers and consumers.
How will duties affect prices
• According to experts from Moody's and The Wall Street Journal, the most sensitive consequences of Trump's tariff policy will be for the American car and electronics market. Import duties will affect the cost to the end user in different ways. The price increase will depend on the exchange rate, the availability of alternatives on the market, as well as the pricing strategy of manufacturers and importers.
Currently, a 145% tariff applies to Chinese goods imported into the United States. Beijing responded with a 125% duty on American products. In addition, China has imposed restrictions on the export of certain minerals, including critically important minerals. Trump responded by threatening China with 245 percent tariffs.
• The duties imposed on China will lead to an increase in the cost of smartphones imported from this country, including Apple products, by about 6% for the final consumer in the United States. The price of laptops imported to America may increase by 5%, and game consoles from brands such as Nintendo and Sony by almost 10%, from an average of $500 to $548.
• In Mexico, where Trump intends to impose import duties of 25%, there are factories of large Western corporations. By the end of 2024, it accounted for 23% of US automobile imports. Tariffs can lead to an increase in the cost of cars imported from Mexico by about 20%, while an increase in the cost in this import segment will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of all new cars in general.
• The giants producing Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, as well as the My Little Pony and Mr. Potato Head toy series will also suffer due to the imposition of duties. According to Bank of America estimates, both Mattel and Hasbro purchase about 40% of the products they sell in the United States in China. Companies will try to reduce costs by renegotiating contracts with manufacturers and possibly changing packaging to reduce costs. However, the main costs will be shifted to consumers. As a result, the cost of some toys may double.
• Thus, many key companies from completely different industries are already faced with the need to urgently change production chains. All this is happening against the background of the collapse of their shares. It is unknown how quickly companies will be able to adapt to the new conditions.
How tariffs destroy the production chains of tech giants
• Apple is named as one of the technology companies that will suffer the most due to the trade war. For example, analysts at Wedbush Securities said that "the tariff economic armageddon that Trump has staged is an absolute disaster" for the company. As of April 7, Apple shares fell by almost 20% in just three trading days, which led to a decrease in the company's market capitalization by $640 billion.
Soon, it was announced that smartphones, computers, and a number of other electronic devices and their components would be exempt from duties. Wall Street analysts were delighted that Apple would now be able to save billions of dollars. Later it became known that this was only a temporary postponement.
• At the same time, the introduction of duties also caused a stir in the smartphone market — fearing rising prices, Americans rushed to buy iPhones. Apple began hastily transporting its products from Asian countries, where production is located, to the United States to build up stocks.
• The trade war with China is also changing Tesla's plans to launch mass production of Cybercab, a robot taxi without steering wheels and pedals. Components for innovative machines were supposed to be supplied from China, but now, according to Reuters, purchases have been suspended. At the same time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk had previously said that Cybercab production would begin in 2026. The electric car should cost up to $ 30 thousand. But now the whole project is under threat.
Nvidia, the industry's leading chip developer, is also caught in the middle of a trade war. It will suffer financial losses of $5.5 billion after Washington imposed new restrictions on the export of H20 artificial intelligence chips to China.
• Probably, the United States does not want American technologies to be used for the development of AI in China. It was H20 that helped the Chinese company DeepSeek develop its neural network, which caused a revolution in the field of artificial intelligence.
How trade wars will affect air transportation
• Trump's protectionist policies have caused havoc in the global aerospace and air transportation industries. Boeing's supply chains are disrupted. For example, the 787 Dreamliner model is assembled from parts from all over the world: wings from Japan, doors from France, fuselage parts are made in Italy and then shipped to the USA for assembly. According to the agreement concluded 50 years ago, Boeing did not pay duties for the purchase of parts.
• Now, according to unofficial reports, the Chinese authorities have instructed their air carriers to refuse to purchase or even receive Boeing aircraft that have already been ordered. Against this background, information appeared about Russia's request to sell Boeing with funds from frozen assets. Thus, the loss of the Chinese market may prompt Trump to lift economic sanctions against Russia, primarily in the aviation sector.
• It follows from all this that Trump's protectionist policies have rocked the entire global economy, from the toy industry to aircraft manufacturers. So far, Americans have not seen the positive results of such measures: some categories of goods are actively being sold off, and prices are creeping up. However, the Trump team assures that the decisions taken will have a beneficial effect in the long term.
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