Swing at the euro: The EU has decided to hit the Trump electorate with tariffs
The European Union has officially approved the first retaliatory measures to the new US duties. Brussels has clearly decided to hit where it hurts most: a significant part of the duties will affect goods from the states where Donald Trump has the strongest support. It seems that the EU is not just defending itself, but also trying to undermine the position of the US president inside the country. Meanwhile, even among Republicans, not everyone understands why Trump launched this tariff war. So far, there is no split in the party, but the tension is growing. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Almost unanimously
On April 9, the EU countries voted to impose duties against the United States. Only Hungary was against it — its Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the EU was making a mistake by not trying to negotiate first. According to him, a trade war will only raise prices, but in the end you will still have to sit down at the negotiating table.
But the majority in the EU believes that the challenge posed by Trump cannot be left unanswered. However, the full list of goods that will be subject to duties has not yet been published — it will be published later in the official journal of the EU.
However, according to Bloomberg, tariffs of up to 25% will affect €21 billion worth of American imports. "European trade officials definitely know a lot about entertainment. The EU's reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision to impose retaliatory duties on all of America's trading partners may turn out to be less aggressive than expected, but it demonstrates some creativity in trying to hit the US in the most painful place," Politico describes what is happening.
The list includes agricultural and industrial goods, such as soybeans, meat, tobacco, iron, steel, aluminum, etc. On April 15, the first package of duties on goods such as cranberries or orange juice, which the EU first introduced back in 2018, during Trump's first presidency, but suspended in 2021, will come into force..
Then, starting on May 16, a 25% duty on the second batch of imported goods such as steel, meat, white chocolate and polyethylene will come into force. Finally, a 25% tariff on almonds and soybeans will be introduced on December 1.
A blow to the red states
"In general, EU duties should amount to up to $13.5 billion for exports from the red states," Politico notes. The authors of the publication stressed that Brussels "sent a portion of passive aggression to hurt the Trump electorate."
According to the publication, the number one item for the European Union is soybeans. "This is the most valuable product, the economic and symbolic importance of which for the regions where Republicans live cannot be overestimated," the publication says.
The United States is the second largest producer and exporter of soybeans in the world. The EU tariffs will hit a sector that has already been hit by China's retaliatory measures, growing global competition and falling prices.
82.5% of American soybean exports go to Louisiana, the home state of Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson. Soybean producers criticized Trump's initiatives last month, calling on the administration to "review tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China and other possible future tariffs."
The European Union is also targeting beef from Kansas and Nebraska, poultry from Louisiana, automobile parts from Michigan, cigarettes from Florida, and wood products from North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama.
The tariffs will cause the greatest damage to exporters in Republican states, as they will affect ice cream from Arizona, handkerchiefs from South Carolina, electric blankets from Alabama, ties from Florida, washing machines from Wisconsin.
The authors of the publication are confident that "Brussels has experimented with a carrot and stick approach to make it clear that it is not going to comply with Trump's demands, while leaving the door open for negotiations." The European Union has proposed a zero-for-zero tariff scheme for industrial goods, cars, medicines, chemicals, plastics and equipment.
However, the American leader said that the EU's proposal did not meet his expectations and called on Brussels to purchase $350 billion worth of American energy resources so that the trade deficit would "disappear in one week."
Meanwhile, in the United States, according to Politico, there is already a rift in the ranks of the Trumpists. Ordinary voters are disappointed — they were waiting for new jobs, but instead they get a stock market panic and rising prices. Four Republicans in the Senate have already supported a resolution against duties for Canada, and Democrat Ron Wyden even proposes to cancel them for all 185 countries.
In addition, there was a scandal in the Trump team: Elon Musk called Navarro's economic adviser, the main lobbyist for tariffs, an "idiot" and "dumb as a cork."
What do the experts think
Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at St. Petersburg State University, notes in an interview with Izvestia that, in fact, the tariff war began quite a long time ago. For example, the introduction of tariffs and the dependence of European economies on the United States have been known since the end of World War II.
— Before that, there were also some tariff plots to protect the economy from the United States in relation to European countries. In the 1930s, there were clashes in the field of tariffs and taxes, which mainly concerned the growing industrial base," the political scientist noted.
According to her, tax wars were also waged in relation to agricultural products, they dragged on for a very long time. Then there were large multinational corporations, whose headquarters are located in the USA. The European Union has complained to them that companies are not paying the right amount of taxes. George W. Bush imposed tariffs and increased duties on automobile manufacturers not only in the European Union, but also in Japan, the expert recalled.
The interlocutor added that Trump is acting more openly. In addition, it significantly increases tariffs. In her opinion, the current American leader shows that he is locking the European economy in the interests of the United States.
— In fact, the Europeans should fuel the economy of the United States, no other scenario is envisaged for them. Trump is not playing giveaway games like previous US presidents, who did all the same things, but just more slowly. The European Union did not realize that in reality there is no "Euro-Atlantic unity." They are hostages of their own beliefs," Natalia Eremina believes.
She believes that by imposing duties, the EU wants to show that it is not against the United States, not against the entire American political community, but against those states that support Trump.
Elena Panina, director of the RUSSTRAT Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies, also notes that the tariff war opened by Trump looks unprecedented except for modern globalism.
"However, protectionism has always been used by various countries when the task was to make an economic breakthrough. In particular, Trump's current policy largely repeats the trade policy of England in the XVI–XVII centuries. Then Britain showed that a free market and free trade are not the way to prosperity. Government protectionism and subsidies work better. They also help solve the problems of the national debt," the political scientist believes.
US President Donald Trump
According to the expert, the same principle underlies the "economic miracle" of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
"It is possible to predict what Trump will do next. Harsh protectionism must be accompanied by a struggle for sales markets, which is why the United States will turn both the EU and Southeast Asia into its market. Moreover, the pressure will be as strong as possible. In order to be able to produce the most technologically advanced goods for their time, resources, energy and materials are needed," the expert believes.
The expert added that Trump's tariff war creates new opportunities for Russia. "In fact, the global trade system is being scrapped, and this is always a chance. If Europe is forced to accept the market status for the United States, these are Europe's problems. Russia needs to take into account historical experience and pragmatically use the situation to its advantage," the analyst concluded.
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