Global response: a third of the global economy has imposed duties against the United States

Countries that make up 35% of global GDP have imposed retaliatory duties against the United States, Izvestia estimates. In particular, customs duties were agreed upon in the EU, but the split is deepening there: Hungary opposed the duties, while Italy and Slovakia intend to negotiate. Half of the G20 member countries, which account for a quarter of the global economy, have so far refrained from tariffs and are engaged in dialogue. Earlier, the US president imposed duties on more than 200 states and territories, according to him, many countries are hoping for a deal. However, there are also many states that hope for the removal of duties or the impeachment of Trump. About the collective response to America and the impact of the global tariff war on Russia — in the material of Izvestia.

Which countries are ready to negotiate with the United States on duties

The EU, China and Canada have imposed retaliatory restrictions against the duties imposed on April 2 by the US president. The share of countries that decided to respond to Donald Trump's actions accounts for about 35% of global GDP, Izvestia calculated based on data from the International Monetary Fund.

At the same time, half of the countries on the G20 list of the world's largest economies are negotiating with the United States to ease tariffs. These countries include Argentina, Brazil, Great Britain, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, Turkey, South Africa and Japan. The contribution to the global economy of countries that have so far refrained from tariff confrontation and are ready for dialogue amounted to 25%.

On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of customs duties on products from more than 200 countries and territories. Universal tariffs of 10% came into force on April 5, individual tariffs — on April 9. In addition, the US administration has imposed customs duties of 25% on all imported cars since April 3. The White House claims that about 70 countries are already seeking to conclude a deal in order to reduce or eliminate these fees.

— I'm telling you, these countries are calling us, kissing my ass. They're dying to come to an agreement," said Donald Trump, speaking at the dinner of the National Republican Conference of Congress.

Additionally, for countries that "in no way" responded to the measures imposed by the United States, Trump imposed a 90-day pause in the retaliatory duties. During this period, the 10% rate will apply to them. Also on April 9, in the TruthSocial social network, the president stated that the United States "due to China's lack of respect for world markets" immediately increases trade duties against the republic to 125%.

China, in response to the trade restrictions imposed by Donald Trump, raised duties on goods from the United States by 50%. The tariff rate will now be 84% and will take effect on April 10, 2025 at 12:01 p.m. Beijing time. In addition, China has filed a lawsuit against the United States under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. Despite the retaliatory measures, Beijing calls on Washington to immediately correct erroneous practices and cancel all unilateral duties against China.

However, Washington is not ready for compromises: the head of the US Treasury, Scott Bessent, called China's retaliatory measures an "unfortunate decision." The president's harsh rhetoric may be motivated by his desire to achieve high—profile diplomatic successes by April 30, when his first 100 days in office expire - an important symbolic milestone for American presidents.

The European Union also approved the first response to the US tariffs, which will take effect on April 15. According to Euroactiv, EU countries have approved duties on €22 billion worth of American goods, including tobacco, motorcycles, poultry, steel and aluminum.

It is noteworthy that on April 8, EC President Ursula von der Leyen held telephone talks with Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Qiang. The parties discussed the US tariff policy and the future of relations between Beijing and Brussels. China noted that China and the EU are "the most important trading partners" and their "interests are closely intertwined."

Despite the fact that the EU and China are numerically in the minority, their economic capacity is many times higher, both in terms of trade turnover, as well as in terms of domestic demand and GDP. Brussels and Beijing believe that the US dependence on imports from these countries is underestimated, and the level of losses for the States themselves will be so sensitive that one of two events will occur before the end of 2025.: the removal of duties or the impeachment of Donald Trump, independent expert Andrei Barkhota told Izvestia.

— No one is ready for a conflict with the United States. Countries that make up about 70% of international trade are ready to collude with the aim of early termination of President Trump's powers," the expert said.

Countries that are ready to negotiate with the United States realize that an earlier conformist approach can give them more benefits. For example, India is experiencing faster economic growth, as well as Brazil and South Africa, Barkhota concluded.

Split in the EU over tariffs

However, there is no unity within the European Union regarding retaliatory duties. In particular, Hungary did not support the introduction of tariffs because it would lead to higher prices on the European market. Instead, Budapest proposes to proceed to negotiations, said Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. He also previously indicated that "a representative of one of the largest EU countries" proposed postponing the introduction of new duties on American goods.

Italy also supports the negotiation option: its Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni will meet with Trump in Washington on April 17. According to Italian media, the purpose of her visit is to achieve a reduction in the duty rate by at least two times to 10%.

Slovakia also intends to negotiate with the United States, Marian Carey, head of the Slovak parliament's international affairs committee and a member of the ruling SMER party, told Izvestia.

— Slovakia will negotiate with the United States, because we produce a lot of cars and this decision of the American president harms us. But I think that for the most part this is the concern of the European Union," Carey told Izvestia.

The automotive industry accounts for about 15% of Slovakia's GDP and accounts for half of the country's exports. The republic produces about 1 million cars a year, and it ranks first in the world in terms of car production per capita. The new tariffs imposed by the United States will reduce opportunities for Slovakia to enter the American market. It is not a key market for Bratislava, therefore, most likely, manufacturers will look for opportunities to enter new trading platforms, possibly in Asia, Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.

From a legal point of view, direct negotiations between individual countries and the United States are impossible due to the EU's common trade policy, which has been in force since 1962. Brussels should work out a common response after listening to the opinions of representatives of all states, Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia.

— If individual countries negotiate with the United States, the common economic space, the most valuable thing the EU has, will be undermined. In fact, separate negotiations will mean the beginning of the end of the European Union," the expert stressed.

The tariff standoff will cause significant damage to the European economy, although the United States will also suffer due to rising inflation. Therefore, European diplomacy is now trying to find such a level of tariffs to save face, but it will not be able to work out effective measures, Tkachenko sums up.

How the global trade war affects the Russian economy

Although Trump's tariffs have not directly affected Russia, our economy is still sensitive to global trade wars. The Moscow Exchange index has lost 10% over the past week and 18% over the past month. The national currency has weakened by almost 3% over the past week to 86 rubles/$.

First of all, the Russian market reacts to the dynamics of oil prices. Since the beginning of April, Brent quotes have collapsed by 20% and gone below $60 per barrel. At the same time, the Russian Urals variety is trading even cheaper due to sanctions and international restrictions. This puts pressure on the profits of mining companies, as well as reduces budget revenues.

In addition, the toughest trade confrontation between the United States has come precisely against China, which is now one of the main counterparties of the Russian Federation in the global market.

— Russia has a serious dependence on demand from China. The faster the economy of China grows, the greater the appetites that need to be satisfied, which is certainly beneficial for us. If China has problems with the economy, our key losses will be lost revenues in oil, ferrous and non—ferrous metallurgy," explained Ivan Potekhin, Director of Customer Relations at BCS World Investments.

Last year, Russia and China increased trade turnover to a record $245 billion, recalled Kirill Seleznev, an expert on the Garda Capital stock market. In the crisis year of 2020, it was twice as low, but the structure of commodity flows was different.

— It can be assumed that the loss of the Chinese American market will lead to the fact that the turnover with Russia will even grow, but mainly due to imports to the Russian Federation, — Kirill Seleznev added.

As for the oil trade, it is not yet clear at what level the price will be set and what needs China will have in 2025. Most likely, they will decrease.