Everything has been vulgarized: how Trump's tariffs will hit Russia's neighbors
Moldova suffered the most from Donald Trump's "tariff war" in the post-Soviet space, with a record 31% duty for Chisinau. The republic's authorities promise to help their producers, and the opposition is looking for an explanation for Washington's move. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
From Estonia to Kazakhstan
The main event in early April in the world was the introduction of import duties by Donald Trump for most countries. According to the decision of the US president, the tariff for goods from the European Union will be 20%, for India — 26%, for China — 34%. The American stock market began to feel feverish after the announcement of the innovations, but this did not shake Washington's resolve. "This is an economic revolution, and we will win. Hold on, although it won't be easy, but the end result will be historic," Trump promised.
For the countries of the post-Soviet space, the decisions of the American administration turned out to be quite unexpected. So, no duties were imposed against Russia at all. At first, Washington explained that tariffs would become meaningless, because many sanctions had already been imposed against Moscow. Later, the concept changed. "Russia is currently in the process of peace negotiations that are affecting thousands of lives, and that's what President Trump is focusing on right now," White House spokesman Kevin Hassett explained.
At the same time, the rate for Ukraine, which is also involved in peace negotiations, was 10%, which has already caused a storm of indignation in Kiev. "The duty will not have a big negative effect, given our small exports to the United States. But actually, to impose tariffs with a deficit of our foreign trade with the United States of $2.6 billion is economic cynicism of the highest grade," said Daniil Getmantsev, head of the Rada's tax committee. He also added that the trade war would hit the EU countries, because of this they would not be able to help Kiev in the same volume.
Another interesting point is that no duties have been imposed against Belarus, which is not involved in any peace negotiations. White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt explained in this regard that the republic is already facing problems, "previously imposed sanctions are hindering trade." At the same time, the three Baltic countries, which for many years have been considered the main agents of American policy in Eastern Europe, will be subject to the standard rate of 20% for EU countries.
In Central Asia, Kazakhstan suffered the most, with a tariff of 27% imposed on it. Astana, however, was not upset about this, the Ministry of Commerce stressed that mainly crude oil, uranium, and silver, which are on the list of exceptions, are shipped overseas, and the tariff measures will affect only 4.8% of Kazakhstan's exports to the United States. At the same time, experts stressed that the general state of the global economy is more of a concern, if growth slows down, then consumption of hydrocarbons will fall, and prices will decrease.
"The wings were torn off on approach"
The main victim among all post-Soviet countries was Moldova, against which a tariff of 31% was imposed. At the same time, Washington did not explain the formula by which such a rate was obtained. Economist Stanislav Madan gave his calculations. According to him, Moldova exported $142 million worth of goods to the United States last year, and imported $53 million. The difference is $88 million, which should be divided by the volume of exports and converted into a percentage, resulting in 31%.
Representatives of the Moldovan authorities said that the innovation would not cause much damage to the economy. Thus, Prime Minister Dorin Rechan said that exports to the United States account for only 2.5% of Moldovan exports. "We understand the concerns of our manufacturers, who have constantly worked to gain access to the American market, and the government will step in to help entrepreneurs maintain their competitiveness," he stressed.
Experts do not share this optimism. For example, Moldovan economist Vyacheslav Ionita notes that the United States has been a fast-growing trading partner. "A few years ago, exports to the United States amounted to $20 million, and now they have increased several times. Our wings were torn off on approach. This market was growing for us in a situation where our total exports were falling. Besides, we supplied wine and juices overseas, and our agricultural producers are already in a difficult situation," he laments.
Another economist, Marin Gospodarenko, says that manufacturers will compensate for losses by raising prices for American consumers. According to him, the US duties on EU countries may have a much greater impact on Moldova, since two thirds of Moldovan trade turnover falls on the European market. "We import a lot of goods from the EU, and if the cost of production there increases, the price of the products we buy there will rise, and inflation will rise," he said.
At the same time, the Moldovan opposition sharply criticizes the economic policy of the current authorities. For example, former Prime Minister Vlad Filat said that Maia Sandu's team had achieved a unique result — they were able to block trade with both Russia and the United States. According to him, the 10-year quota period for Moldovan fruit supplies to the European Union will also expire in the near future. "A unique achievement: the ruling party managed to sow irritation in all the major trading powers at the same time," he complained.
In turn, Bogdan Tsyrdea, a member of parliament from the Bloc of Communists and Socialists, said that the reasons for the introduction of duties should be sought not only in the economy. "It should be understood that such tariffs are the result of the extremely negative attitude of the Trump administration towards the Republic of Moldova, or rather, towards the leadership of the ruling PAS party and Maia Sandu, who are representatives of Soros and other various non—governmental organizations," he stressed.
What the experts say
Moldovan expert Alexander Korinenko believes that the duties have become an important signal for Chisinau.
— The economy will survive these tariffs, exports to the United States account for 2.5% of all Moldovan exports. But this is an important political signal. Earlier, Donald Trump had already criticized the previous American administration for promoting "leftist ideas" in Moldova for $32 million. Representatives of the Moldovan ruling party were no longer received at a high level in Washington, although they used to regularly communicate with the head of USAID, Samantha Power, Victoria Nuland and others. There are many indications that Sandu's team has ceased to be among the favorites of the United States," he notes.
Igor Shornikov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of Russia and former deputy Foreign Minister of Pridnestrovie, says that Chisinau has serious problems with Washington.
— The dialogue has not been established yet. There is no American ambassador in Chisinau, he was appointed a year ago, but he still has not arrived, now, apparently, the State Department will appoint someone else. There are several reasons for this. On the one hand, Moldova is simply not the focus of Washington's attention. On the other hand, Maia Sandu was and remains an obedient executor of the will of Trump's main opponents from Brussels and London. The further development of the situation will depend on the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Moldova this fall, as well as on the outcome of the peace talks on Ukraine. In any case, it is unlikely that anything will change in the near future," he assures.
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