Basic question: The United States has stopped demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria

The United States has handed over to Syria a list of conditions that the country must fulfill in order to ease sanctions. It lacks the point that the Senate had previously insisted on — that the new authorities deny Russia access to the Khmeimim and Tartus bases in Syria. Does this mean that Washington has changed its approach? Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

The entire list was announced

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East and Syria Natasha Franceschi handed over to the head of the Syrian Foreign Ministry, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, a list of requirements that must be fulfilled to ease the sanctions regime.

In particular, Washington insists that Damascus destroy all remaining chemical weapons stocks and ban foreign rebels from holding senior positions in the Syrian government. In addition, the US authorities want Syria to cooperate in the fight against terrorism and appoint a coordinator to assist in the search for American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared more than 10 years ago. He disappeared in 2012 after being detained by the Syrian security services while passing through one of the checkpoints in Damascus.

If the Syrian authorities fulfill all the conditions, the United States will make some concessions. However, it is not specified what specific mitigation is in question.

Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Al Hariri

Earlier this year, the US Treasury removed from the sanctions list some financial transactions with the new leadership of Syria, including energy transactions. In February, the European Union also went to ease restrictive measures. This concerned the energy and transport sectors.

In addition, five companies and banks whose assets were frozen were withdrawn from sanctions.

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Before the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, Syria was a major exporter of oil, which was mainly bought by European countries. The current authorities do not have control over many oil fields, since they are mainly located in the north-east of the country, and this part is still controlled by Kurdish formations that are not subordinate to Damascus now.

Tel Aviv had a hand in it

The list of demands put forward by the American administration differs from the one previously proposed by Jim Risch, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In particular, the US authorities do not insist that Damascus deny Moscow access to two military bases. Rich, in turn, demanded that the transitional administration in Damascus expel Moscow and Tehran from its territory. He argued that Russia should not use the port of Tartus in the Mediterranean Sea, as "it threatens the United States and its allies."

Photo: REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

Israeli media believe that the Israeli authorities were trying to convince Washington that Moscow would be the guarantor of border security. The American administration believed that Turkey, as a member of NATO, could become such a guarantor, but Tel Aviv strongly opposed it, believing that after the regime change in Syria, Turkey's position had strengthened and it "could pose a threat."

Walla reported that the Israeli military and intelligence officials held several rounds of internal consultations, where they discussed the consequences of increasing Turkish influence in Syria. They decided that the way out would be to strengthen in the south of Syria, as well as the struggle to preserve Russian bases, otherwise the risk of a clash between Ankara and Tel Aviv is growing.

What do the experts think

Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Vostochny Vorota Telegram channel, believes in an interview with Izvestia that in this situation, the United States has not turned a blind eye to Russian bases.

Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas

— It seems to me that a slightly different factor is playing a role here. In early March, there was a publication that Israel was lobbying the United States to maintain Russian bases in Syria. In other words, Israel sees them as an element of pressure on Turkey. And if it is in Israel's interests to maintain Russian bases, then the United States automatically takes the same position under the current administration," the expert explained.

According to the political scientist, this is the main factor. At the same time, he noted that "our bases in Syria are in an extremely hostile environment": the interim president of Syria is also the head of a terrorist organization included in the relevant Russian and UN lists.

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The analyst believes that if we talk about the prospect of maintaining Russian bases in Syria, then this will be a matter of bargaining.

— It is important to understand that in such a situation, Russia can be viewed as a cash cow, from which it is necessary to squeeze out as much milk as possible, and then it is desirable to put it under the knife, — Ontikov believes.

The orientalist does not exclude that in this situation, Russian bases and military personnel may be under threat — they may become the target of both provocation and terrorist attacks.

Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas

— That is, our citizens who are present at military bases in Syria, at any moment may turn out to be an element of a very dirty and disgusting political game on the part of [the head of Syria] Ahmed al-Sharaa, as well as the countries behind him," the political scientist summed up.

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the Israeli authorities are guided primarily by national interests and national security issues in their policy in the Middle East.

In his opinion, Tel Aviv does not have many options for further actions - there are three scenarios. According to the first one, Ankara and the transitional government in Damascus agree on military cooperation, the banned HTS in Russia remains in power, and does not break up into many different groups. Turkey occupies not only the north of Syria, but is also approaching the borders of Israel in the south and northern Lebanon.

The expert is sure that in the second scenario, Turkey and Damascus agree, but the HTS disintegrates.

— In the case of the third scenario, no one enters into any agreement. Chaos may break out in the region. Each of these options is sad for Israel, because it may find itself one—on-one with an enemy that is difficult to defeat, it is unclear how to deal with it, and which will require spending a lot of resources," Krylov added.

Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman

In his opinion, the region currently lacks a balancing state, given that Moscow has lost its position in Syria.

— Russia can use the chance that Israel gives it, it has a great opportunity to return. But the question is how the two bases can exist in conditions when the authorities in Damascus are negatively opposed to Russia and Ankara is categorically opposed," the political scientist concluded.