Annoy the Sultan: Israel wanted to keep Russian bases in Syria

Against the background of the events in Syria, the concerned Israeli authorities sent their military secretary Roman Hoffman to Russia. He discussed security issues. The interests of Moscow and Tel Aviv coincide - both sides would like to preserve Russian military bases on Syrian territory. Israel is confident that this will help balance the growing influence of Turkey, which actively supports the interim government in Damascus. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Strengthen cooperation

Roman Hoffman, one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's closest military advisers, recently visited Moscow. His goal was to strengthen security cooperation, especially against the backdrop of the Syrian crisis. Ynet writes about this, referring to its sources.

The decision to send Hoffman to Russia came after a dispute broke out between the American president on February 28 Donald Trump and the Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky at the White House.

It was reported that the military adviser plans to discuss the request in Moscow Israel: to put pressure on the radical group Hamas through intermediaries. This is necessary to advance negotiations on the release of hostages. Maxim Kharkin, a native of Donbass with Russian citizenship, is among those who are still in captivity.

to spite Turkey

The Reuters news agency previously wrote that Tel Aviv advocates for Syria to remain weak and decentralized. Perhaps that is why Israel insists on maintaining Russian military bases in the country.

The Israeli authorities believe that this will help contain Turkish influence in the Syrian Arab Republic, which has increased after the change of power in Damascus.

Hoffman has already discussed the future of Syria in other countries, but now his mission is to negotiate with Russia.

Israeli diplomats also discussed the possibility of maintaining Russian bases in Syria during the talks in Washington. They argued that Turkey, despite its influence, would not be able to ensure stability in the region. However, the Americans were surprised by this point of view.

They believe that Ankara, as a NATO member, is better suited to the role of a security guarantor. But the Israelis insist on their own.

The United States is actively discussing whether to demand the closure of Russian bases in Tartus and Khmeimim as conditions for lifting sanctions against Syria. A meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was devoted to this issue.

Its head, Jim Risch, said that Damascus must prove its willingness to comply with the demands of the international community, including severing ties with Russia. He also expressed concern that Syria had allowed the Russian delegation to study issues related to the bases.

However, Israel believes that Russia's withdrawal from Syria could lead to Tartus and Khmeimim coming under Turkish control. This was hinted at by the statements of Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu, who spoke about Turkey's interest in developing Syrian ports and increasing trade in the region.

According to Yediot Ahronot, Netanyahu is also trying to prevent the conclusion of a defense agreement between Syria and Turkey. According to the draft, Damascus can receive combat drones, radars, electronic warfare and air defense systems from Ankara. In addition, the creation of Turkish military bases on Syrian territory, where attack aircraft can be deployed, is being discussed.

Chaos will begin

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Israel's policy in the Middle East in general and on the Syrian track in particular always starts first of all from national interests and national security issues, and only then from opinion. Western allies, countries in the region, and immediate neighbors.

In this regard, Tel Aviv's policy is somewhat surprising, but at the same time it is objectively understandable, the expert says. Israel doesn't have many options.

In his opinion, according to the first scenario, Turkey and the transitional government in Syria agree on military cooperation. The HTS, banned in the Russian Federation, retains its power without splitting into many separate groups.

— Turkey occupies not only the north in Syria, but in principle it is approaching the borders of northern Lebanon and the borders of Israel in southern Syria. The second scenario is that Turkey and Syria come to an agreement, but at the same time the HTS is falling apart," the expert said.

He added that there is also a third scenario in which no one enters into any agreement.

— But in this case, in principle, HTS has no consolidating factors. Chaos is beginning in the region. Under these conditions, any of the three options is extremely sad for Israel, because they find themselves with an enemy that is unclear how to deal with, which is very difficult to defeat, and which requires spending a lot of resources," the expert believes.

The orientalist believes that there is currently a lack of a balance beam in the region.At the same time, Russia has noticeably lost its position in Syria.

Krylov noted that The United States is trying to put pressure on Israel, believing that the Turks are the best allies. But Israel understands perfectly well what NATO is and how quickly problems arise within the alliance, the speaker is sure.

In his opinion, Moscow can use this chance.

— In the current conditions, Russia has a good chance to return. The question is what the amount of the deal with Tel Aviv will be, what concessions Moscow will have to make, and most importantly, how these two bases can exist in conditions where a government with a negative attitude towards the Russian Federation is sitting in Damascus, plus Turkey will be categorically opposed," the political scientist believes.

There is a chance

Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Eastern Gate Telegram channel, believes in an interview with Izvestia that Israel has not exactly found a counterweight to Turkey in the face of Russia in Syria.

— Apparently, the Israelis are looking at the prospect of maintaining Russian bases as some kind of another coin in the piggy bank of their interests in the Middle East region and specifically in the Syrian direction, the political scientist is sure.

He added that this topic has already been "rocked in some Arab media."

— In the sense that Russia and Israel allegedly have the same interests in Syria, and, accordingly, we are talking about these bases. But here it is important to understand that the global goals and objectives of the countries are still quite different, the expert is sure.

The expert explained that Russia considers these bases as an element of its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and as a link in logistics chains.

— The Israelis look at any events in the Middle East from the point of view that they need to keep Syria in a weakened state," the analyst noted.

Ontikov suggests taking a broader look at the situation.

— The Israelis need to systematically weaken the Arab and Islamic world. We should also not forget about Israel's very great desire to create an independent Kurdish state, which would lead to the severe weakening of Syria, Iran, Turkey and Iraq," the orientalist emphasized.

In his opinion, parts of territories, often rich in various minerals, will split off from these countries.

— In other words, Russia and Israel have different global objectives in the Middle East. The Israelis need a weakened Arab-Islamic world, while Russia needs, on the contrary, a strong and independent Arab-Islamic world capable of presenting a united front on various issues.

According to the expert, Moscow has a chance to keep Russian bases in the SAR. The question is, at what price.

— There is a positive side here — the Russian bases are not being kicked out, they are not demanding to leave Syria as soon as possible. That is, we are ready to at least speculate on this topic, and at most to discuss it constructively," the expert is sure.

However, according to analysts, the presence of Russian bases in present-day Syria will be extremely uncomfortable with the current leadership.