Ruble and a kind word: Syria's new authorities named a way to keep bases
Russian officials visited the Syrian capital for the first time since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Moscow is concerned about the preservation of its two military bases in the country. However, this issue has yet to be negotiated: the new Syrian leadership has made it clear that they would like to "restore trust" through "concrete measures" - assistance in the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure and compensation. They also hinted at the need to extradite Bashar al-Assad. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
What are the relations between Russia and Syria today?
Representatives of the Russian authorities visited the Syrian capital for the first time after the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The results of the visit of the official Russian interdepartmental delegation to Damascus published on the website of the Foreign Ministry.
"During the frank discussion of the whole complex of issues of Russian-Syrian relations at the current critical stage, the aspiration to continue building bilateral multifaceted cooperation on the principles of traditional friendship and mutual respect between Russia and Syria was emphasized," the ministry said in a statement.
The publication notes that the Russian side confirmed "unwavering support for the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the SAR, as well as readiness to provide the Syrian people with the necessary assistance in the post-crisis reconstruction of the country."
The Russian delegation was headed by Mikhail Bogdanov, special representative of the Russian president for the Middle East and African countries and deputy foreign minister of Russia. Along with him was Alexander Lavrentiev, the Russian president's special envoy for Syria. In addition, the delegation included representatives of the United Grain Company and STG Engineering.
On the Syrian side, the meeting was attended by Chief of Administration Ahmad al-Sharaa, who became president for a transitional period on January 29, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and Health Minister Maher al-Sharaa.
The Russian Foreign Ministry also noted in a commentary after the meeting that Syrians need to solve internal problems on their own, "establishing a sustainable political process within the framework of an inclusive dialog with the participation of the entire spectrum of political forces and ethno-religious groups in the country."
The Kremlin also emphasized the importance of the Russian delegation's visit to Damascus. According to presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, "it is necessary to build and maintain a permanent dialog with the Syrian authorities."
Damascus said after the visit that the talks focused on "Russia's role in restoring trust with the Syrian people through concrete measures." Among them are compensation and assistance in reconstruction. The new Syrian authorities emphasized that in restoring relations "it is necessary to take into account past mistakes, respect the will of the Syrian people and serve their interests."
How Brussels is pitting Damascus against Moscow
The Russian military contingent was sent to Syria at the request of the Syrian people in the fall of 2015 to fight a network of international terrorist groups. As Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the time, these goals were achieved. However, according to representatives of the new Syrian authorities, Russian military aid helped Bashar al-Assad retain the presidency.
According to Ahmad al-Sharaa, "the victims of the brutal war waged by Bashar al-Assad's regime need justice." Reuters quoted sources as saying that the new Syrian leader allegedly asked Moscow to extradite Assad, who fled to Moscow before the fall of Damascus. Russia has not commented on these reports.
Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa
At the same time, the issue of maintaining Russia's military presence on the Syrian coast - the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia and the logistics center of the Russian Navy in Tartus - is very important for Moscow.
Following the visit, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that the issue of the bases "requires more in-depth consultations" and additional contacts.
At the same time, Al-Watan reported earlier on the termination of the agreement between Syria and Russia on the management of the civilian part of the port in Tartus, which was the only base in the Mediterranean that allowed Russian troops to refuel, resupply and repair ships during operations in the Middle East and Africa. Activity at the Hmeimim air base is also limited, according to various reports.
According to Mikhail Bogdanov, this is a "purely technical termination." The diplomat expressed hope that some mutually acceptable solutions could be found.
Representatives of the Russian delegation also discussed trade and economic interaction between Moscow and Damascus, recalling that the Soviet Union and then modern Russia once helped Syria build important infrastructure, including hydroelectric facilities, and Moscow expressed its readiness to continue doing so.
Tartus harbor
It should be noted that in mid-December last year, Bloomberg reported that the Russian authorities were close to an agreement with the new Syrian authorities on bases in Tartus and Hmeimim. It was noted that Moscow could offer Damascus food security, as well as help rebuild the army and start re-equipping it with weapons, most of which were destroyed by Israel.
Recently, however, the European Union has become more active and has begun to mend relations with Damascus, persuading it to reject deals with Moscow.
The foreign ministers of Germany and France have already visited the Syrian capital, and EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas said that Brussels and Damascus will agree on a roadmap for easing anti-Syrian sanctions. In addition, the G7 countries, along with allies, are exploring ways to replace Russian oil and food imports to Syria. Turkey also opposes Moscow's plans to maintain its bases and influence in Syria.
What the experts think
Danila Krylov, a researcher of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department at the Institute of International Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, PhD in Political Science, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that "the attempt to bargain in the existing realities" is quite an archetypal situation for the East.
- We all understand perfectly well what kind of power has come, what kind of tone and character it is. It is not without reason that its representatives were at different times put on terrorist lists by various states, and now the West simply turns a blind eye to it. Even Turkey does not control all the processes there," the political scientist said.
According to him, Russia invested a lot of energy, resources and political influence in Syria, defending the country on the international arena. However, the new authorities want reparations and retributions from those who helped their political opponents. Accordingly, anyone who supported Assad is their enemy, the expert believes.
In his opinion, the new Syrian authorities can ask and demand concrete actions, but in reality they can achieve little.
- The whole question is what concessions Russia is ready to make and whether it needs it. Of course, the preservation of the Khmeimim and Tartus bases would be a military and political victory in the long term," Danila Krylov said.
The political scientist reminded that the agreement on the base in Hmeimim was signed for 49 years.
- The change of the political regime should not turn into a rejection of the agreements reached earlier. But in reality, even the arrival of a new US administration entails the redrafting of international agreements and reformatting of everything, which means that it would be naive to hope that the Syrians will not do the same," the expert believes.
According to the expert, it is unlikely that the new Syrian authorities understand the long-term political consequences of their actions. The question also arises whether they will be able to keep the terrorist groups under control.
- Under these conditions, relations between Moscow and Damascus will be built solely on the basis of Moscow's goodwill and the extent to which it is ready to take some compromise steps in the current global political environment," the expert said.
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gates," noted in a conversation with Izvestia that in a normal situation, Russia's chances of maintaining its presence in Syria would not be the smallest.
- But the problem is that the European Union has entered the game, directly telling the new authorities in Damascus that it will lift sanctions against it if the Russian military is not in the country. Ankara doesn't really need Moscow there either. Nor does Israel. In this situation, Russia must either offer some more tempting alternative - the question is whether it can afford it - or negotiate an opportunity to save face," the political scientist said.
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