Patron neighbor: Tel Aviv has decided to take the south of Syria under its protectorate

The Israeli Air Force, as part of a new policy towards its northern neighbor, has attacked military installations in southern Syria, as well as its capital region. According to the IDF press service, the targets were command centers and weapons depots. The ministry explained that these facilities "posed a threat to Israel." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that the transitional government of the SAR ensure the "complete demilitarization" of the southern provinces. In Tel Aviv, they fear the strengthening of Turkey in Syria. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Don't become south Lebanon

"Currently, the Air Force is actively attacking southern Syria as part of a new policy that we have defined to pacify the southern regions of Syria, and the message is clear.: we will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon," said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz.

He stressed that Israel will not put the safety of its citizens at risk, and "any attempt by the forces of the Syrian regime and terrorist organizations to establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria will be met with fire."

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement in which it said that it had attacked command posts and numerous weapons facilities in the south of the SAR. At the same time, it made it clear that these were preventive strikes in order to prevent the invasion of terrorist groups into the buffer zone of the Israeli army, and also stressed that that "it will continue to act to eliminate any threat to Israeli citizens."

At the same time, the Syria TV channel, citing a source in the Syrian Security Service, reported that the Israeli Air Force struck a military facility in the city of Al-Kiswa, located west of Damascus. Facilities in the Daraa province in southern Syria were also bombed.

Netanyahu's new policy

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the day before that Tel Aviv is pursuing a new policy towards Syria, speaking to graduates of the IDF officer training courses. According to him, he will not allow militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (a terrorist group banned in Russia) or the new Syrian army to enter the territory south of Damascus.

In addition, the head of the Israeli government demanded the complete demilitarization of southern Syria, including the provinces of Quneitra, Deraa and Suwayda. Netanyahu separately noted that Tel Aviv will protect the Druze (an ethnic minority that lives in Israel, Lebanon and southern Syria).

In turn, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, speaking in Brussels, said that the new Syrian administration headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa is, in fact, "a jihadist terrorist group from Idlib that captured Damascus by force."

The foreign minister also accused the new Syrian leadership of hostility towards minorities. According to him, "they are taking revenge on the Alawites (a religious group to which former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad belonged. — Izvestia) and harm the Kurds."

However, Israel seems to be most concerned about a possible defense agreement between Syria and Turkey. According to rumors, Damascus has already asked Ankara for military-technical assistance: drones, radars, electronic warfare and air defense systems. The possibility of establishing Turkish military bases in Syria, where Turkish fighter jets will be deployed, is also being discussed.

In southern Syria, locals are not thrilled with Israel's plans to gain a foothold in the border areas. Protests have already started there. Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the interim government of al-Sharaa does not have the levers to influence Israel, and if the protests expand, "this could destabilize an already precarious situation."

The illusion of calm

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that, in general, the whole situation in Syria is an illusion of calm, the calm before the storm.

— There are now three large regional forces around Syria, which from different angles are quite predatory about what is the new administration of Syria," the political scientist noted.

According to him, this is Turkey, Israel and Iran, and the players do not change. Krylov added that everything is generally predictable with Iran. Tehran has lost significant influence, as well as lost a channel of communication with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In his opinion, Turkey, on the contrary, "seems to be on a horse," believes that it controls The United States regulates the processes taking place in Syria to at least a minimal extent.

— Although this is a very questionable question. Israel has created its own security zone outside its borders, which covers three rural provinces of Quneitra, Deraa and Suwayda, which is quite wise from a military and tactical point of view," the expert added.

He explained that this is not exactly a protectorate in southern Syria, but rather a sanitary zone in which, as a last resort, it will be possible to conduct military operations so that they do not spread to Israeli territory, since these regions border the Golan Heights.

Krylov explained that Israel quite logically decided to take advantage of the chaos in neighboring Syria, the conditions of socio-political destabilization and move the front to the territory of the SAR. There is basically no chance that Syria will maintain its unity, except in the form of a federal state. No government in the SAR has ever been ready for federalization, the analyst emphasizes.

He added that Israel categorically does not want a repeat of what happened to southern Lebanon.

Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Eastern Gate Telegram channel, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that, by and large, Israel is trying to return to some kind of modified form of the situation that existed under President Bashar al-Assad.

— At that time, Israel's security was provided 100% due to the specific role of some individual external players involved in resolving the Syrian crisis. Now the role of some forces has greatly decreased and the role of others has increased," the expert explained.

The political scientist noted that, in particular, we are talking about Turkey.

— It is clear that the Israelis are concerned about these changes and would like to receive the same security guarantees, — the specialist emphasized.